Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Being Down 3-1 Relative to Being Tied 2-2

As I've mentioned prior, even down three games to one in the 2009 NLCS, Baseball Prospectus has us at 15% odds to win all three games and take the NLCS title. It can happen, it has happened to 12 teams since the playoffs began, and three teams in the last seven years, if my math is correct.

So say we pulled out that Game 4 after all. I've run the numbers, and my analysis says that only 50% of the teams that are tied 2-2 in a best-of-seven series go on to win the series. You may want to check my math on this, but I've carried the 1 and I think it's true.

It can still happen.

GO DODGERS!

17 comments:

Paul said...

Take the power back Dodgers. End this bullshit.

It is 7 in the morning and I am already angry! Put on the RATM.

Dusty Baker said...

I, too, am angry this morning. I want to tear the head off a kitten.

Fred's Brim said...

FRED'S BRIM ANGRY! FRED'S BRIM SMASH!

Dusty Baker said...

kill Kill KILL!!!

Paul said...

In a perfect world our crew is fed up as well and will put a 5 spot in the first against C-Hole.

We are due for a big first inning. Overdue.

Mr. Customer said...

We've got to get this game just to give Plaschke the giant collective middle finger.

Dusty Baker said...

I want a big foam middle finger that I can flash at Plaschke.

Mr. Customer said...

@db

There's a market niche that needs filling.

rbnlaw said...

I wish someone would fill Plaschke's "market niche."

Josh S. said...

LET'S DO THIS!

Mr. Customer said...

@rbnlaw

Any volunteers?

*crickets*

Fred's Brim said...

This has been around a while. I am sure a middle-finger version can be found too

rbnlaw said...

@Mr. C,
Good one. The Rag-ister assigned former beat writer, Randy Youngman, to follow the team through the playoffs.
His big story today was about how Manny was in the shower when the Fillies staged their comeback instead of being in the dugout with the team.

Torre shrugged it off saying he does that a lot; no big deal.

I just love sportswriters who try to manufacture stories.

Paul said...

Plaschke never showers.

Josh S. said...

My only thought on Manny going to the clubhouse early:

Torre supposedly replaced him with Pierre "for defensive purposes" in the same game where Manny made an unbelievable game-saving catch. If I were Manny, I might have been a little pissed at that and bailed to the shower early.

Just speculating as to "why" he did it, even though the whole thing doesn't even matter.

Mr. Customer said...

@Paul

Because it might contaminate his precious bodily fluids?

Steve Sax said...

I've heard Mattingly, in addition to hitting technique, also preaches bodily hygiene.