The 2024 MLB Playoffs Are Set

Game 1 in Atlanta today was a crazy back-and-forth brawl at the end there, with lead changes every half-inning until the Mets prevailed, 8-7. That put the Braves on the backfoot in a must-win Game 2...in which the Braves prevailed, 3-0, to punch their own ticket to the 2024 postseason.

The Diamondbacks miss out on the playoffs, a year after making the World Series. They have a reasonable squawk about potential collusion between the two NL East rivals playing today, but Arizona still lost four of its last six, which was preceded by coughing up a 8-0 lead to lose 10-9 to the Brewers.

So now, the Braves--who didn't hurl Chris Sale in Game 2, due to back spasms--fly back across the country for a game against the Padres tomorrow (5.30p first pitch). All three games play at San Diego, on successive days. Really hoping for this series to go to a third game, with the winner playing the Dodgers starting on Saturday @ the Stadium. But we'll get to that Wild Card series tomorrow.

Oyster Pubes Returns to San Francisco

Buster Posey, upon learning he has been named the new President of Baseball Operations for the San Francisco Giants

Ex-Giants C Buster Posey replaces Zaidi as prez of baseball ops (ESPN.com)

Scoreboard Watching: Sept 30, Mets @ Braves

Game 161 10a: Mets' TBD @ Braves' Schwellenbach
Game 162 after game 161: TBD vs. TBD

Hurricane Helene ravaged the southeast last week, and it also did a number on the 2024 baseball schedule, postponing two more games between the Mets and the Braves until today, the day after the last game of the season.

Both the Mets and the Braves are in contention for the postseason, with the Diamondbacks poised to slip on into the playoffs (as the #6 seed), if either team is swept. But no matter what the outcome, it means that both teams will come into the their Wild Card series with little rest, which is even more impactful for the Dodgers since the #5 seed will face the Padres in a best-of-three.

The Padres will likely emerge victorious from that series, particularly if the team has had to expend all of its effort and best arms in these two games. This would set the Dodgers up for a tricky NLDS against a division rival who has had our number this year.

So as Dodger fans, we need to root for Atlanta to win the first game (where they start Schwellenbach), which guarantees the Braves earn the #5 seed and play the #4 seed Padres. In that scenario, they won't have to throw Chris Sale, and can instead hold him to start the following day against San Diego. If Atlanta loses the first game, then they have to win for a berth.

Of course, conspiracy theorists are already assuming that the Mets and Braves will cut a backroom deal to split the two-game bill, so that they both go to the playoffs and the Diamondbacks miss out. That would assume the Mets and Braves, division rivals, would agree to a deal--seems crazy to me (though I admit that it's the most likely outcome, in my estimation).

I'll be watching at 10a tomorrow! This is nuts!

Games 160-162 Thread: Sept 27-29 @ Rockies

The Rockies' Charlie Blackmon played his last game on Sunday.

Fri 9.27 Brasier vs. Quantrill
Sat 9.28 Yamamoto vs. Senzatela
Sun 9.29 TBD vs. Feltner

Sorry this has posted late. I was recovering after celebrating our NL West championship!

Let's just get some rest.

2024 NL WEST CHAMPIONS!

DODGERS 7, PADRES 2

first photo from Sax's mom (who is at the game!)

Games 157-159 Thread: Sept 24-26 vs. Padres

Tue 9.24: Knack vs. King
Wed 9.25: Flaherty vs. Cease
Thu 9.26: Buehler vs. Musgrove

The Dodgers have a three-game lead on the Padres for the NL West division lead, and we play three games at home vs. the Padres in this, the second-to-last series of the season. We throw our three of our four most probable starting pitchers for the postseason (given the options available at this point) against the Padres' three best starters.

What could possibly go wrong?

Games 154-156 Thread: Sept 20-22 vs. Rockies

Fri 9.20 7p: TBD vs. Freeland
Sat 9.21 6p: Buehler vs. Quantrill
Sun 9.22 1p: Yamamoto vs. Senzatela

Following a majestic end to the roadtrip that saw Shohei Ohtani reach 50/50 for the first time in major league history...this series against the Rockies is bound to be a let-down.

The Dodgers have clinched a playoff berth and have a four-game lead on San Diego in the division. The Dodgers are also three games up on the Brewers for one of the first two spots in the NL Playoffs (guaranteeing a bye in the first round).

Let's just have fun out there at the Stadium this weekend!

Shohei Ohtani: First 50/50 MLB Player

We saw an unbelievable offensive performance today for Shohei Ohtani, in which he went 6-for-6 with 10 RBI, three HR, and two doubles in a 20-4 slaughter of Miami, which is already being called the greatest game ever.

Congratulations, Shohei Ohtani! We are all in awe.

photos from USA Today

Games 151-153 Thread: Sept 17-19 @ Marlins

If you look closely, there's a marlin in this photo.

Tue 9.17 3.40p: Miller vs. McCaughan
Wed 9.18 3.40p: Knack vs. TBD
Thu 9.19 1.40p: Flaherty vs. Cabrera

There have been four MLB expansion teams since 1993, and only the Marlins have won two World Series titles (the Diamondbacks have one, and the Rays and Rockies have none). And yet, the Miami Marlins are a shell of a team, following the unceremonious departure of GM Kim Ng (who was offered a demoted role, and chose to leave instead).

Miami's average attendance is 12K per home game--almost a quarter of what the Dodgers draw on average--29th in the majors, only ahead of the carpetbagging Athletics. But wait--Tuesday's game is Japanese Heritage Night (for the Dodgers, get it?), and Wednesday's game admits 4 people for $44. So maybe we can get to 15K fans for these games?

If you look closely, there's a Miami Marlins fan in this photo.

I mean, I know we have a 3.5-game lead in the division with 12 games to play. But if a tree falls in the forest...

Post-Game 150 Thread: Jekyll and Hyde

DODGERS 9, BRAVES 0

I honestly don't know what to think about the Dodgers after this series. The first two games had the Dodgers getting smoked like a pork shoulder, losing 6-2 and 10-1 in Atlanta, the latter of which came with our only surviving ace, Jack Flaherty, getting outdueled by likely NL Cy Young winner Chris Sale. Things looked bleak.

And then, late in the nationally televised game on Sunday night, the Dodgers opened up a crazy seven-run ninth inning to put the Braves away in a 9-2 victory. And then, one day later, the Dodgers opened up another can of whup-ass on the Braves, watching Yoshinobu Yamamoto tightrope his way out of jams to spin four scoreless innings, setting us up for the shutout victory.

This weekend, we also noted that regular season ace Tyler Glasnow is likely done for the season with an elbow strain, not to mention Austin Barnes is likely headed to the IL with a fractured toe, meaning his attempt to try to lead the league in catcher's interference calls (five this season) is probably done. (Barnes has five errors in 43 games, fifth most of any catcher with 43 games or fewer in the majors.)

So are we a good team? Are we a bad team? It's hard to tell. We certainly have more than our share of injuries, and I credit manager Dave Roberts for stringing together the lineup as best as he can given the circumstances (the Dodgers still are up 3.5 games on the Padres with 12 to play, and fangraphs has us at a 95% chance to win the division and a 100% chance of making the playoffs). We also are one game back of the Phillies for the best record in the majors.

This should be good, right? Why do I feel so conflicted?!

Games 147-150 Thread: Sept 13-16 @ Braves

Fri 9.13 4.20p: Knack vs. Schwellenbach
Sat 9.14 4.20p: Flaherty vs. Sale
Sun 9.15 4.10p: Buehler vs. Morton
Mon 9.16 4.20p: Yamamoto vs. Fried

This is it, the last playoff tune-up series for the remainder of the 2024 season: four games, on the road, against perennial National League powerhouse (and historic Dodgers rival), the Atlanta Braves. This year, Atlanta is getting a lot of talk about the loss of starter Spencer Strider as well as position player (and reigning NL MVP) Ronald Acuna Jr, and how the Braves are now one game back of the Mets for the last Wild Card spot.

I don't understand why Atlanta gets the sympathy while the Dodgers have been MUCH more beset by injuries. The 2024 Dodgers have spent 1,992 days on the IL (as of today), which dwarfs every other MLB team by at least 150 days, and that includes the Braves (1,575 IL days). So spare me the sob stories, Atlanta. As well as that inappropriate tomahawk chop.

Games 144-146 Thread: Sept 9-11 vs. Cubs

9.9: Walker Buehler vs. Kyle Hendricks
9.10: TBD vs. Shota Imanaga
9.11: TBD vs. Jordan Wicks
all games 7p first pitch

Former Dodger Cody Bellinger returns to Dodger Stadium again, as a revived hitter; he's batting .263 with a .744 OPS (108 OPS+), and would be better than his +1.5 bWAR if not for his injuries this year. Still, some believe Matt Chapman, who recently extended his deal with the Giants, would have been a better fit at Wrigley Field. Chapman has a far superior WAR this season (+6.5), but the Giants aren't vying for a 2024 postseason spot, either.

It's going to be hot as Hades Monday at the Stadium, but I'll be there to cheer on the Dodgers. This is a big start for Walker Buehler tonight, given how our starting rotation is in shambles (save Jack Flaherty, who dominated the Guardians Sunday in a 4-0 victory). Crossing fingers for Buehler!

photo: Michael Layton / Getty Images

Games 141-143 Thread: Sept 6-8 vs. Guardians

Fri 9.6 7p: TBD Landon Knack vs. Matthew Boyd
Sat 9.7 6p: TBD Ryan Brasier vs. Alex Cobb
Sun 9.8 1p: TBD Jack Flaherty vs. Gavin Williams

We know most Dodger fans don't keep up with the American League, let alone the sleepy AL Central--so let's recap this year. The Guardians weren't expected to be very good following the 2023 retirement of manager Terry Francona, yet here they are, leading the AL Central by four games (over Minnesota, who has climbed over the Royals by a half-game), not to mention only a half-game behind the Orioles for the best record in the league. New manager Stephen Vogt has a lot to do with the team's great performance this year, not to mention the on-field production from Stephen Kwan (batting .292) and Jose Ramirez (34 HR).

But the Dodgers haven't lost a series since August 5-7 against the Phillies. And since then, we've faced off against the leaders in the NL Central (Brewers) and the AL East (Orioles), not to mention the Cardinals, Mariners, Rays, and Diamondbacks, and we've done pretty well in that span--increasing our lead in the NL West (5.0 games ahead of the Padres, and 5.5 games ahead of the Diamondbacks).

Sure, we don't have a starting pitcher named by Thursday evening (when I am writing this GT). But I'm hoping the day off following that drubbing by the Angels has given us time to recover for this weekend's series.

UPDATE 9.6 5p: Gavin Stone to the IL. Geez.

On Clayton Kershaw and Gavin Lux, from the ESPN Baseball Tonight Podcast (8/21/24)

I'm a little bit late in transcribing this, but I wanted to codify the audio from a wonderful segment between host Buster Olney and guest Paul Hembekides regarding Clayton Kershaw and Gavin Lux. Unfortunately, I can't get all the text of the Kershaw part due to a hiccup in my feed--but I've gotten the gist of it. I heard this segment while on a run and wanted to get this on the blog for both of our readers.

The Olney / Hembo segment in the podcast started out by praising the Dodgers for giving Justin Turner the microphone when JT came back to the Stadium for the first time (as a visiting player)—which led to a really special moment for the fans and for Turner (Buster Olney agreed). And then came the deep dive into the Dodgers players (link below):

Paul Hembekides: Clayton Kershaw is scheduled to make his next start on Saturday at home against the Rays. It might be a historic day, Buster, and that’s because with seven more strikeouts, Kershaw will own the record by any pitcher at any ballpark, in the history of major league baseball. Right now, that is a record held by Steve Carlton, who struck out 1,615 batters at Veterans Stadium in Philadelphia. Clayton Kershaw to date has struck out 1,609; he is six behind that record. Filling out the rest of the top five are Mickey Lolich at Tiger Stdium; Walter Johnson at Griffith Stadium; and Don Sutton at Dodger Stadium.

Buster, the mound at Dodger Stadium is a sanctuary: for Sutton, for Sandy Koufax, for Clayton Kershaw. Down the line I'll think of [Kershaw] like baseball historians think of Willie Mays traversing center field at the Polo Grounds, or Mel Ott using that short porch there, or Rickey Henderson on the basepaths at the Coliseum, or Ted Williams and Yastrzemski and Jim Rice in the shadow of the Green Monster. It's one of the great sanctuaries in baseball, and CLayton Kershaw, with seven more strikeouts, will have more recorded more strikeouts on that mound than any pitcher, on any mound, in the history of the sport.

[Unfortunately, Kershaw ended up getting only five strikeouts that Dodger Stadium start (8/24/24), and then went on the IL during the 8/30/24 road start after that-—so Kershaw is still chasing the record.]

Buster Olney: A guy playing behind [Kershaw] when he makes that start will be Gavin Lux at second base. Look, Karl and I talked about it last week, based on our conversation with Dave Roberts beginning of the year, 100% chance Mookie is gonna be our shortstop playing the middle of the infield the rest of the year, they changed that, and I think most of the reason is Gavin Lux.

PH: If you’re a Dodgers fan that gave up on Gavin Lux, I really can’t blame you. He entered this season with an OPS+ of 94 for his career, of course coming off a torn ACL. And the first three months of this season were really ugly. He woke up the morning of July 11 batting .207 with a .542 OPS. He was genuinely one of the worst regulars in all of baseball. In 33 games since--and it’s only 33 games--it’s a.362 / 429 / .657. It’s 1.7 WAR. He has accounted for 32% of his career WAR over the last month: that’s how good he’s been.

I’ve identified three reasons why he’s surging offensively.

• 1) He’s covering the inner half. He’s 18-for-44, 8 XBH, on pitches in the inner half of the zone.
• 2) He’s adjusting better than your starter is. Lux is 22-for-43, batting over .500, when he faces your starter the second and third time through the order.
• 3) He’s winning at bats late. Lux is 15-for-37, that’s a .405 average, in the fifth pitch or later during a plate appearance. For context, the league hits .190 in those situations.

Now is this sustainable? Probably not. But is It encouraging? Absolutely. He has settled in very nicely in to that five hole and has provided the Dodgers lineup the length they desperately need.

BO: You know it’s interesting, he’s always been a guy I’ve enjoyed talking with, connecting with, and I felt like h just needed this burst of success to put him over the top, if I’m making sense. He was a lot of anticipation, a smart guy trying to figure out, and once he does figure it out, then BOOM. You have someone absolutely taking off.

A good comp for me as a pitcher is Charlie Morton—you saw all the parts of a really good player, and to see it all together is pretty cool.

Awesome to see our small-market Dodgers finally getting some coverage in the national press!

Games 139-140 Thread: Sept 3-4 @ Angels

I don't recall this bobblehead driving fans to get in line 10 hours before first pitch. Life was simpler back then.

Tues 9.3: Buehler vs. Detmers
Wed 9.4: Miller vs. Canning
Both games 6.38p first pitch

On August 1, the Dodgers were still playing lackadaisically and had a 4.5-game lead on the Padres and 5.0-game lead on the Diamondbacks--and it was well established that our opponents in the NL West were carrying all the momentum (the Dodgers had a 9.0-game lead on June 20, so it made sense).

But after taking three of four against the Diamondbacks this Labor Day Weekend, the Dodgers are now 5.0 games up on the Padres and 6.0 games up on the Diamondbacks. And our rotation may still be swiss cheese, but at least a healthy offensive lineup is showing more signs of life.

And we have a little respite here against the last-place Angels (who are amazingly 2.5 games behind fourth-place Oakland), before hosting the Guardians and Cubs in a six-game homestand. Let's see if Walker Buehler and Bobby Miller can improve their bids for a postseason roster slot.

UPDATE 9.3 2p: I just heard on the Roggin and Rodney show that the Angels are not planning to do anything for Shohei Ohtani's return to Angel Stadium, for the first time since he left the team after last season. If that's true, that would be incredibly spiteful of Arte Moreno and the organization.

UPDATE 9.4 3p: Apparently, there was a 42-second tribute on the video screen (which seems really paltry, but whatever, Anaheim). And then they did this:

That about sums it up

(via meredith_lynn/IG) pic.twitter.com/3ho7jYIA8T

— Jomboy Media (@JomboyMedia) September 4, 2024