Tuesday, April 06, 2010

A Little Ray of Sunlight on a Gloomy No-Game Day

Today's off-day doesn't make that 11-5 Opening Day loss any easier, does it? Well, as we chew on the cud that is an unsatisfying loss to a non-contending NL Central team, cognizant that most baseball pundits are picking the Rockies to win the NL West, let's at least take pride that ESPN's computers picked the Dodgers to win the 2010 NL West title (insider only, no link):

With the help of the stat gurus at Baseball Think Factory and their cutting-edge computer projection system known as ZiPS, we simulated the 2010 season 100 times. Based on the results, we created pie charts showing how many times your team wins its division. The sims also provide average standings, wild-card chances and each club's most wins and losses. Plus, ZiPS identifies three players per division who'll be much better (and worse) than last year. Who could argue with that? Well, Buster and Tim take their shots, in Man vs. the Machine. Because predictions wouldn't be much fun without them.

Triple Threat
In the Dodgers' storied history, from Brooklyn to LA, they've never finished first three seasons in a row. But that was before Joe Torre came to town. A third straight division title for LA would be his 14th as a manager. What he'd like more, though, are 11 playoff W's to add to his record 84.

Three Up, Three Down (excerpt)

Up: Chad Billingsley, 25, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
His 2009 strand rate (71 percent) was well below his career mark (76.2 percent). All he needs is a return to the norm.

Down: Matt Cain, 25, RHP, San Francisco Giants
In '09, his K rate dropped and his homer rate increased, yet he shaved close to a run off his ERA. Hmm.

Wow, the Dodgers dominating the simulations, and Billingsley predicted to outperform Cain? This, I would love to see. Luckily, we've got 161 games left to wash this poor taste from our mouths.

photo: Wayne Eastep / Getty Images


MeanieBreanie said...

Keep the faith. One bad day does not a season make.

Josh S. said...

I used my Zips to predict the season and all they told me is that I need to buy new shoes.

Glass Half Fool said...

WOW! that makes me feel alot better. I love computers. and I will love SkyNet when it goes online.....

MR.F said...

If that is sarcasm, I would call that a very poor attempt at it.

Glass Half Fool said...

errr... no that really did make me feel better. It was sincere and you are cynical.