Down But Not Yet Out

Yesterday's WSJ (no link) had a short piece on the NL West and how all four teams in the running (if you can call the Dodgers "in the running") have a shot--the worst odds of the bunch, but still a shot. Here's an excerpt:

The four flawed contestants -- the San Diego Padres, Colorado Rockies, San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers, all within 5 1/2 games of one another before Monday night -- have more of a go-kart feel to them. Each could win the derby; each could just as easily break down in a smoking heap.

The Giants can pitch but, aside from Aubrey Huff and Buster Posey, can't hit. The Padres can't hit either, and their pitching isn't as good as the results suggest. The Dodgers can hit but, unlike practically every Dodger contender ever, have mediocre pitching. And the Rockies? Don't the rules require that you have a first baseman?

Since 1901, only four times have four teams finished within five games of first place, excluding seasons shortened by work stoppages. The last time this happened was the 1988 American League East, when five teams did so. "It's going down to the end, that's for sure," says Giants starting pitcher Matt Cain.

Here's a look at each of the teams and their odds, according to Bodog.com, of surviving this four-way run-off: [...]

Dodgers (7/1 to win division; 9/2 to make postseason)

What can we say about the Dodgers except, well, what happened to the good ol' Dodgers? A franchise that built its legacy on pitching now relies on a staff with a below-par team ERA (4.16). "You wish you could just snap your fingers and fix it," says general manager Ned Colletti. "But it's not that easy."

Their bats are keeping them in the running -- especially Matt Kemp's and Andre Ethier's, which have combined for 31 homers. That said, the Dodgers' offense is due to decline. They rank ninth in the majors in batting average on balls in play -- a wonky stat that measures how often batted balls fall in for base hits -- which indicates the Dodgers are getting more breaks than they should.

And don't forget the continuing divorce between owner Frank McCourt and wife Jamie, the team's former chief executive. Los Angeles Superior Court Commissioner Scott Gordon said last week that their squabbles could force them to sell the team. Even if that doesn't happen, the legal issues might hamper their ability to take on new financial obligations as part of a late push.

How Matt Kemp gets mentioned over James Loney is beyond me, but at least they got All-Star Andre Ethier's name right (and avoided the easy target of Jonathan Broxton). The Padres had the best odds at 4/7 and 1/3; the Rockies were next at 9/2 and 3/1; and the Giants were 4/1 and 9/5.

A Little Ray of Sunlight on a Gloomy No-Game Day

Today's off-day doesn't make that 11-5 Opening Day loss any easier, does it? Well, as we chew on the cud that is an unsatisfying loss to a non-contending NL Central team, cognizant that most baseball pundits are picking the Rockies to win the NL West, let's at least take pride that ESPN's computers picked the Dodgers to win the 2010 NL West title (insider only, no link):

With the help of the stat gurus at Baseball Think Factory and their cutting-edge computer projection system known as ZiPS, we simulated the 2010 season 100 times. Based on the results, we created pie charts showing how many times your team wins its division. The sims also provide average standings, wild-card chances and each club's most wins and losses. Plus, ZiPS identifies three players per division who'll be much better (and worse) than last year. Who could argue with that? Well, Buster and Tim take their shots, in Man vs. the Machine. Because predictions wouldn't be much fun without them.

Triple Threat
In the Dodgers' storied history, from Brooklyn to LA, they've never finished first three seasons in a row. But that was before Joe Torre came to town. A third straight division title for LA would be his 14th as a manager. What he'd like more, though, are 11 playoff W's to add to his record 84.

Three Up, Three Down (excerpt)

Up: Chad Billingsley, 25, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
His 2009 strand rate (71 percent) was well below his career mark (76.2 percent). All he needs is a return to the norm.

Down: Matt Cain, 25, RHP, San Francisco Giants
In '09, his K rate dropped and his homer rate increased, yet he shaved close to a run off his ERA. Hmm.

Wow, the Dodgers dominating the simulations, and Billingsley predicted to outperform Cain? This, I would love to see. Luckily, we've got 161 games left to wash this poor taste from our mouths.

photo: Wayne Eastep / Getty Images

Two Out Of Three Yahoo! Sports Pundits Pick Rox To Win NL West

But we got the sole dissenting vote! Thank you, Alex Remington, for your steely disposition (and incredibly close shave, I might add)!

Kevin Kaduk's World Series prediction: Yankees over Rockies in five
NLDS: Phillies over Cardinals, Rockies over Braves
NLCS: Rockies over Phillies
ALDS: Yankees over Twins; Red Sox over Angels
ALCS: Yankees over Red Sox

David Brown's World Series prediction: Phillies over Rays in seven.
NLDS: Phillies over Cardinals; Braves over Rockies
NLCS: Phillies over Braves
ALDS: Rays over Angels; Red Sox over Twins
ALCS: Rays over Red Sox

Alex Remington's World Series prediction: Red Sox over Braves in six
NLDS: Braves over Dodgers, Cardinals over Phillies
NLCS: Braves over Cardinals
ALDS: Red Sox over Twins, Yankees over Angels
ALCS: Red Sox over Yankees

And that's it? NL West title, then dispatched by our historic two-division rival, the Braves? Ugh.

SF Comical Proclaims Dodgers Vulnerable

If it's an arms race in the payroll category, the SF Comical's John Shea says that the Giants now have a window of opportunity to catch the Dodgers, who have finished ahead of the Giants each of the last four years:

According to preliminary indications, the Giants' payroll will approach $100 million ($96-ish million, excluding $5 million deferred for Barry Bonds). The Dodgers' will slip below $100 million following decisions to dump Randy Wolf, Orlando Hudson and Juan Pierre and to not sign big-name free agents.

That leaves the Dodgers anywhere between $80 million (based on one report, taking into account half of Ramirez's $20 million salary is deferred) to somewhere in the 90s.

USA Today records year-by-year payrolls on its Web site, and 2010 would be only the second year since the 1994-95 strike that the Giants' payroll topped the Dodgers'.

In the teams' California era, the Dodgers have bullied the Giants with more pitching, more spending and more world championships (five to zero), but the Giants suddenly have a window of opportunity with superior pitching and a hope, finally, for some decent homegrown hitting. [...]

It's an eye-opener for Giants fans. Now it's up to the team, on the field and in the front office, to take advantage of the Dodgers' vulnerability.

I know, oh my god maybe I should go start a Giants blog and report this news on that blog. I do like to keep an eye on our divisional rivals, though--but even as mediocre as I'm feeling about the Dodgers' returning squad this year, I am not that worried about the Giants and their own payroll liabilities and similar lack of big-name free agents (no, I'm not counting Aaron Rowand).

ESPN Picks Rockies To Win NL West

ESPN / Baseball Prospectus' Jay Jaffe has the Dodgers tied for third--or fourth, depending on how you look at it--with a 81-81 record, according to PECOTA projections. This would place us seven games behind the projected winner, the Colorado Rockies (insider only). As for the hometown team:

Los Angeles Dodgers: 81-81 projected 2010 record

Why They Might Win: Fundamentally, this is the same team that stormed out of the gate last year, putting up the league's best run differential despite losing Manny Ramirez to a drug suspension for 50 games. Manny's vacation as well as subpar years from Rafael Furcal, James Loney and Russell Martin were offset by major breakouts by Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier -- and a career year from Casey Blake. Only at second base will the Dodgers have a new starter, and every year that Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley get under their belts is another year closer to their ascendance to being two of the league's top pitchers.

Why They Might Not Win: Owner Frank McCourt's divorce from wife and former team CEO Jamie McCourt appears to have affected the team's winter spending, and they find themselves depending upon Vicente Padilla to provide a career year along the lines of departed free agent Randy Wolf. Even more frighteningly, all five projected starting pitchers -- Billingsley, Kershaw, Hiroki Kuroda, Padilla and James McDonald -- grade out as red lights via Will Carroll's Team Health Reports, meaning each has at least a 50 percent chance of winding up on the disabled list. Furthermore, Loney and Martin have failed to advance after strong beginnings to their careers, and Ramirez -- who hit just .255/.380/.448 after taking a fastball on the wrist in late July -- may be finished as a dominant offensive force.

Player Who Could Surprise: Key for a team whose external resources appear to be limited, PECOTA is sanguine regarding the Dodgers' young fifth-starter options -- but the forecast of rookie Scott Elbert's striking out 10.3 batters per nine innings is intriguing.

Player Who Could Disappoint: The system is particularly down on the 36-year-old Blake, foreseeing .258/.339/.417 with 17 homers.

The NL West may be a toss-up, but I don't think the division will end up Rockies / Snakes / Dodgers and Giants / Friars. No one in the NL West saw big improvements in the offseason, so even our stagnation has to be considered amongst peers who are also treading water. But--like everyone else--we are indeed aging at some key positions...

...You hear that, Casey Blake and Manny Ramirez? JAY JAFFE IS CALLING YOU OUT! Show him wrong in 2010!

Are You Rocky Mountain High?

Thanks to SoSG reader Wicks for forwarding this column by Dave Krieger of the Denver Post*. Krieger compares the Rockies and Dodgers at ten positions (position players, starters and relievers) and gives the Rockies the definitive edge in five of those categories, with the Dodgers only taking two (he called three categories pushes). Here's his breakdown:

• 1B (Helton vs. Loney): Rockies
• 2B (Barmes vs. Belliard): Rockies
• 3B (Stewart vs. Blake): push
• SS (Tulowitzki vs. Furcal): Rockies
• LF (Gonzalez vs. Ramirez): Rockies
• CF (Fowler vs. Kemp): Dodgers
• RF (Hawpe vs. Ethier): Dodgers
• C (Iannetta vs. Martin): push
• SP (Jimenez, Cook, Francis, De La Rosa, Hammel vs. Kershaw, Billingsley, Kuroda, Padilla, McDonald): Rockies
• RP: push

Kreiger admits he had to make assumptions about Belliard and McDonald winning starting jobs, but we can still see this is a highly debatable list. ("I darn near died laughing after reading this," as Wicks put it.) Arguments can be made for the Dodgers at 1B, 3B and LF, and while the Dodgers' rotation is clearly weaker without Randy Wolf, the Rockies' starting five isn't an automatic lock either.

But I'm too busy debating EK about the Kia Crew vs. the Kia Soul Hamsters to delve into this further — so we're going to throw it to you, SoSG readers. Post your analysis, for one position or all of them, in the comments section and we'll update this post with the most convincing arguments.

*The Gary Miller referenced in the piece is not the same Gary Miller who co-hosts the Dodgers pre-game show on KCAL 9 with Eric Karros.

UPDATE: From Wicks himself:

All right fellow SOSG fans to back my opinion that this Denver Post article is off base I did some dirty work. Below is a head to head comparison of the everyday Dodger players versus Rockies players using the statistic of Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP)for 2009. For more about the Warp go here:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Wins_Above_Replacement_Player

I did not compare the pitching staffs because ERA says it all. 3.41 is lower than 4.22 last I checked.

Helton 3.7 Loney 1.5 ADV ROX
Barmes 1.8 Belliard 1.0 ADV ROX
Tulo 5.4 Furcal 3.3 ADV ROX
Stewart 1.2 Blake 4.2 ADV LAD
Iantetta 2.0 Martin 2.1 ADV LAD
Gonzalez 2.4 Manny 2.8 ADV LAD
Fowler 0.7 Kemp 5.0 ADV LAD
Hawpe 1.3 Ethier 2.5 ADV LAD

Final Total Dodgers win 5-3

And from Jason:

1B - Helton and Loney are inching closer than you'd expect. Helton still hits more doubles and draws more walks but Loney still has all of the disks in his back. Both are probably going to hit 15 - 20 home runs (though I imagine their home/road splits will be mirror opposites). Defense is basically a wash. Loney has more speed so he won't be clogging the base paths though neither is a particular threat to steal. And of course, Loney is more likely to trend upwards and show an improvement over 2009 what with him turning 26 in May.

Advantage Rockies by about 1 win until Helton's back gives out and Giambi steps into full time duty and literally cements himself 3 feet off the first base bag.

3B - Wicks has it right, Blake is just better. He's a better fielder, he's got better plate discipline, he can grow a beard... Stewart has better isolated power numbers and hits a heck of a lot more fly balls. That plays fine at Coors Field but not so much in the rest of the NL West parks.

Advantage Dodgers by about 1.5 wins assuming Blake goes beardless. Add an additional win if Beard Mode returns.

C - Would be roughly equal assuming J. Martin doesn't drop the J and have a comeback year. But, Iannetta only plays in about 2/3 of the games over the course of the season so you have to factor in Miguel Olivo and his career .276 OBP into the mix.

Slight advantage to the Dodgers.

LF - Come on, Carlos Gonzalez has all of 174 games of experience. And Manny's wrist hasn't been hit by any pitches in 7 months. Manny will produce a net of about 17 more runs over the course of the season even when taking fielding into account. Plus it's a contract year. Advantage Dodgers by about 1.5 wins.

Projected FIPs for the starting 5 from Bill James:

Kershaw - 3.42
Billingsley - 3.72
Kuroda - 4.24
Padilla - 4.68
McDonald - 4.22

Jimenez - 4.03
Cook - 4.32
Francis - 4.41
De La Rosa - 4.37
Hammel - 4.11

That sounds about right.

RP - I'll let WARP and FIP cover this. I'm intentionally excluding swing men and long relievers since their numbers fluctuate way too much to predict. I'm sort of guessing at the Rockies bullpen pecking order behind Street.

Pitcher - WARP - FIP
Broxton - 2.9 - 2.38
Sherrill - 1.4 - 3.31
Kuo - 0.4 - 2.95
Troncoso - 0.8 - 3.54
Belisario - 0.7 - 4.20

Street - 1.8 - 2.97
Morales - 0.5 - 5.10
Daley - 0.7 - 3.98
Betancourt - 1.4 - 3.20
Corpas - 0.4 - 3.41

Advantage Dodgers by a couple of wins overall. In Broxton and Breezy I trust.

To sum up, Dodgers come out on top 6-3-1 (C being too close to call). The Dodgers should be about 3 - 4 wins better than Colorado in 2010 based purely on individual expectations. Take coaching staffs and experience into account and I think the Dodgers pick up one or two more games. I'll still feel better once the #5 started and 2B "battles" are settled in a few weeks.

Thanks, Jason!

Keeping An Eye On The NL West Competition

While the Dodgers hope for big things from Chad "His Royal Thighness" Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda, and Clayton "Minotaur" Kershaw--in addition to the re-signings of Vicente "Battletoad" Padilla and Jeff "Shaggy" Weaver--it's important to remember that our NL West rivals aren't just treading water with their starting ro's.

ESPN pundit Jerry Crasnick speculates that a healthy Jeff Francis may make them the NL West's best starting rotation (ESPN's Rumor Central; insider only / no link):

If Francis returns to form, the Rockies have more than a formidable rotation, they might just have the best starting five in the National League. Francis would join Ubaldo Jimenez, Aaron Cook, Jorge De La Rosa and either Tim Redding or Jason Hammel in the Rockies rotation if he's healthy, and he's expected to be ready for spring training after spending some time at the Rockies' Dominican complex.

Meanwhile, Brandon Webb's 25-pitch performance Tuesday, his first warmup session since shoulder surgery, may herald a formidable 1-2-3 punch for the Diamondbacks (again, ESPN's Rumor Central):

If Brandon Webb is healthy this season, the Arizona Diamondbacks figure to have one of the better starting rotations in the National League with Dan Haren and Edwin Jackson backing up the sinkerballing ace.

At least we Dodger fans can take solace in the fact that the Giants' low-ball offer to ace Tim Lincecum--$8M offered by the club vs. $13M from Timmah as they head off to arbritration--will either hit the Giants in the pocketbook dearly, or test the limits of Lincecum's cavalier attitude.

And what about us? According to Ken Gurnick, the Dodgers are keeping an eye on Chien-Ming Wang, whom the Dodgers watched throw off flat ground last week. Hoo boy.

PECOTA Picks Dodgers To Win NL West; Why Even Play The Games At This Point

According to Baseball Prospectus' wacky PECOTA projection machines, the Dodgers will win the 2010 NL West with a 87-75 record, two games ahead of the Diamondbacks. The Snakes will tie with the Braves for the Wild Card. The NL West's Giants will finish third at .500, with the Rockies and Padres behind them in order.

The Cardinals will end the year with the best record, two games ahead of the Dodgers and one game ahead of the NL East-winning Phillies...which means we would face the Phillies in the playoffs yet again, this time in the first round.

Way to go out on a limb there on the NL, Mr. Pecota!

The Rays, Twins, and A's will win their divisions, with the Red Sox snagging the AL Wild Card.

Thanks to Big League Stew for the link.

NL West Catches Catcher Fever

• Dodgers: Russell Martin signs a one-year, $5.05 million contract
• Dodgers: sign J.D. Closser to a minor-league deal with a spring training invite
• Giants: re-sign Bengie Molina to a one-year, $4.5 million deal. Molina reportedly turned down more money from the Mets to stay with the Giants. Buster who?
• Rockies: sign Paul Lo Duca to a minor-league contract. Last we heard of Paulie, he was telling us what it's like to be on a steroid list. Now he may be reunited with NL West Manager of the Year Jim Tracy.

So The Dodgers Aren't The Only NL West Team Idling?

Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports says that the Dodgers' signing of Jamey Carroll reflects our complacency--but the Giants haven't done anything to take advantage of the situation this winter:

So far this offseason, the Dodgers have added one veteran to their 40-man roster. His name is Jamey Carroll.

I happen to have a high opinion of Jamey Carroll. He’s a pro. He plays all over the diamond. Still, he was last seen appearing in 93 games for a lousy Indians team in 2009. While he may start at second base for the Dodgers, he has been a utility infielder for much of his career, and utility infielders are like long snappers. You need them. You value them. But if you see them surrounded by reporters after a postseason game, it’s generally because they messed up.

I mention Carroll to illustrate a point: The Dodgers have spent very little this winter. That is partially because they have a fairly established core of young players, partially because the team’s ownership doesn’t lead the league in stability or cash on hand. [...]

Manager Bruce Bochy told reporters this week that he expects Pablo Sandoval, Huff and DeRosa will bat third, fourth and fifth, respectively. Not bad, but I’m sure Dodgers fans (and Dodgers employees) feared for months that the rival Giants would come away from the winter with Matt Holliday or Jason Bay. There was no Big Splash to make McCourt’s financial frostbite sting the Dodgers even more.

“We’ve been hearing it for years: ‘They need a bat, they need a bat,’” one American League scout said this week. “Well, they got Aubrey Huff and DeRosa. They’re good players, sure. But another big bat would be Holliday or Bay or getting Adrian Gonzalez in a trade, which won’t happen.

“I don’t think they totally revamped their offense like they hoped to. But maybe it doesn’t really matter to them, because pitching is the way they’re going to compete. In the Giants’ defense, maybe they’re thinking, ‘The division is coming back down to us.’”

And it is. At least, the Dodgers are. So wasn’t that all the more reason to overhaul the offense now, with your biggest rival mothballing its roster after consecutive NLCS appearances?

That's a swipe at you, Ned Colletti and Frank McCourt. But Morosi goes on to profile the rest of the NL West contenders (i.e., sans San Diego):

The Diamondbacks, meanwhile, have made the best upgrades of any team in the division. Adam LaRoche, who agreed to a one-year deal this week, will lengthen their lineup and improve the infield defense. They have added Brandon Webb (back from injury) and Edwin Jackson (trade with Detroit) to the rotation.

At the moment, the Rockies probably have the best all-around roster in the division. They were better than the Giants last season, and nothing has happened since that would change my mind. San Francisco has Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, but Colorado has balance – not to mention the expected return of Jeff Francis, after he missed all of 2009.

The Dodgers will probably add another starting pitcher soon, but I doubt that they will be as good in 2010 as they were in 2009. As a result, the Giants have pulled even with their rival -- something that would have been a great achievement one year ago. But at the end of an off-season that started with such optimism, it qualifies as a letdown.

If one of our rivals had picked up Holliday or Bay, I admit, I would have been a lot more worried than I am now. It concerns me that we're floating along here on auto-pilot, and I'm hoping that the moves to solidify our youth movement will help catalyze some other smart moves by the Dodgers' front office. All it takes is one big signing, by any of those three teams, for the scales to tip way against the NL West Champs.

Others Grow Bolder While Dodgers Grow Moss

As per Buster Olney's Mailbag from New Years' Eve (insider only; no link):

As a long-time Dodgers fan, what should I expect this offseason in terms of filling out our 2010 roster? From a business standpoint, not offering arbitration to Randy Wolf was a huge mistake; we have serious holes in the rotation. Wouldn't Ben Sheets make the most sense or is the budget locked up for this year? --Eric, Philadelphia

Eric: Sheets will start throwing for teams in the weeks ahead, and he could be an option. But the Dodgers' payroll is locked up because of the long list of arbitration-eligible players and because of the impending divorce of the McCourts. Some money could be freed up as the arbitration cases are resolved, and it could be that they'll lock in on somebody like Sheets or Joel Pineiro. They need at least two starting pitchers to solidify the rotation. Interestingly, I've heard rival executives say that the Dodgers' inactivity is emboldening other teams to make moves, because of the shrinking gap between L.A. and those other squads.

Happy New Year, Dodger Fans!

Poll: NL West 2010

It's a new year and a new chance to speculate about the upcoming season. First of all, you can review what every team in the NL West has done to date:

NL West Moves (MLBTR)

Now, what think you?

Who will win the NL West in 2010?
	Diamondbacks
	Rockies
	Dodgers
	Padres
	Giants
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