Friday, June 25, 2010

Odds of Witnessing Baseball Milestones

Also from the June 28, 2010 ESPN the Magazine was an interesting statistical analysis indicating odds of witnessing key MLB milestones:

Extra innings: 1 in 11

Triple play: 1 in 326

Hit for the cycle: 1 in 702

No-hitter: 1 in 806

Six-plus hits in a nine-inning game: 1 in 2,610

Perfect game: 1 in 10,287

Unassisted triple play: 1 in 12,492

Four-HR game: 1 in 13,453

Besides the obvious extra innings, I know I saw the cycle (Hudson, 2009 Dodgers home opener). I'm not sure if I've seen the six-plus hits in a nine-inning game, but i don't recall it. And you?

36 comments:

Dusty Baker said...

What are Mannyslam odds?

Dusty Baker said...

I saw the O Dawg cycle. I've seen one inside the park HR.

Odds of Dusty buying large Dos Equis at game: 1:1

Fred's Brim said...

I saw Mike Heath hit a home run

Mr. LA Sports Fan said...

I saw Andruw Jones get a hit. Suck it.

KC Douglas said...

Other than extra innings, the only other one I've seen in person is a no-hitter. Lester in Boston.

Josh S. said...

I saw Angel Berroa catch a ground ball in his jersey. What are the odds of that?

Dusty Baker said...

I never saw Berroa get a hit.

Dusty Baker said...

I saw Stults pitch a CGS.

Matt said...

I was at a Red Sox/Yankees game where Mike Mussina was one pitch away from a perfect game. Two outs, two strikes and Carl Everett hits a cheap bloop single to left center over Jeter's head.

It was the only time I heard Fenway Park cheering for the Yankees. Of course once the Perfect Game was lost, everyone reverted back to cheering for the Red Sox as the score was 1-0.

Josh S. said...

Trying to seriously answer the question, I can't really remember being present for anything historic. I saw Bills strike out 13 in 2008, which now seems like a big deal. And then this season, I was present for both the balk-off and Matty's first career walk-off homer.

First career ____ is probably pretty common. I went to a random Angel game in 2002 that happened to feature Chone Figgins' first career AB.

Dusty Baker said...

DSBG with the bad grammar Tweet of the day:

"DODGER'S VS. YANKEE'S! THE RIVALRY RENEWED!!!!!! GAME 1"

Josh S. said...

It's a rivalry between things belonging to a Dodger and a Yankee.

Rihanna/Cameron Diaz catfight?

Dusty Baker said...

Dodger owns "VS." and Yankee owns "!", clearly.

Steve Sax said...

wait a second, WHO are we playing today?

Josh S. said...

@Sax: Ghana

Dusty Baker said...

We're playing the World Health Organization? Do we get a DH?

Paul said...

I saw a triple play at a Padres-Reds game.

I saw an ambulance on the field the night Mondesi almost killed Delino.

Hey I am in Bakersfield! Hey I am getting out of Bakersfield.

Josh S. said...

Hey Swisher!

Padilla says "Hi!"

Mr. Customer said...

@DB

Either that, or we're playing against The Doctor. I wonder if he'll be allowed to use the same version nine times, or if he'll have to use a different Doctor at each position? Can we get a space-time ruling?

Josh S. said...

@Mr. C: All eleven are currently busy playing in the World Cup.

Mr. LA Sports Fan said...

According to Jay Mariotti, Bill Plaschke was once a member of a nudist colony.

Mr. Customer said...

@Josh S.

@Josh S.

They're not limited to one set of spatial coordinates, but I doubt it will matter. William Hartnell has clearly lost a step on the defensive end.

Dusty Baker said...

I still had ESPN on after the WC. Heated up some lunch, sat down, looked up and I was staring at Plaschke on my screen. AAAAACK!!! Get this fat piece of shit out of my TV! Help!

Mr. Customer said...

I think Team Customer is going to have to have a closed-door meeting to discuss all these boneheaded double-posts and typographical errors.

Get your head in the game!

Josh S. said...

@Mr. C:

@Mr. C:

@Mr. C:

You just wanted to make sure I really paid attention to the post.

Speaking of Doctor Who and football, how far along are you in the current series?

Dusty Baker said...

Going on a booze run. Any suggestions?
#BevMo

Mr. Customer said...

@Josh S.

(taking a stand against human cloning, here)

I'm stuck on the BBCA schedule, so I think I'm three eps behind. The last one I saw was the second half of the two-parter.

Josh S. said...

Ah, the two-parter that bored me to sleep. The next two are ace.

Mr. Customer said...

@Josh S.

Excellent. I'd agree that was probably the weakest stories this season, glad to hear it's not a trend.

Josh S. said...

@Mr. C:

Oops. My count was one off. The next one is odd and not all that great (but better than the two-parter), followed by the two good ones.

Dusty Baker said...

Got all the way to BevMo and realized I didn't have my wallet. #BoozeFail

I guess I left my wallet in El Segundo. I gotta get it.

rbnlaw said...

@DB,
Ha! Reminds me of a joke:
My girlfriend said, "Kiss me where it's stinky."
So I took her to El Segundo!
Ha, cha!
*rimshot*

Steve Sax said...

I too saw Plaschke on the tv as I worked out this afternoon. I will say that my blood's boiling helped me run a pretty fast split time on the treadmill.

Josh S. said...

What were the odds of a no-hitter being thrown on the day you posted this?

Dusty Baker said...

*brain explodes*

Dusty Baker said...

Ken Levine recently commented on presence at milestones:

http://tinyurl.com/2dgvtd4