In more simpleton terms, it's a measure of who's lucky, and who's really F-ing up.
Yankees - $200 million dollars just doesn't buy what it used to (for proof, check out Sahara.) As if being 39-42 wasn't bad enough, Yank-off nation only has to look two columns over to discover they SHOULD BE 46-35 (thanks to scoring a net of +60 runs over the season). To quote SoSG favorite Nelson, "HA HA!"Detroit, Florida, and Cleavland - These three teams avoid confrontation with the math gods by having records exactly equal to their Pythagorean expectation.
Seattle - Proving it's better to be lucky than good, the Mariners are five games over their X-W-L. And at least one of them knows this. Fearing the vengeance of Pythagoras, Mike Hargrove went underground in a geometric-proof bunker.
DODGERS - The team has opted to not be the five games behind that X-W-L dictates. In the formula world, the Dodgers are playing with the House's money.
4 comments:
Seattle?
Marlins?
(Nevermind, he's on a roll.....)
All mentions of Seattle Marlins are gone. Those responsible for this mistake have been sacked.
I wish I could find the quote, but there was a piece I read at work at lunchtime yesterday discussing the usual problems with statistical modeling not matching real-world circumstances... with Pythagorean numbers, this is especially true.
... er, what I meant to repeat is that it's a fallacy to assume that discrepancies between real life and your model are due to luck.
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