Thursday, January 28, 2010

PECOTA Picks Dodgers To Win NL West; Why Even Play The Games At This Point

According to Baseball Prospectus' wacky PECOTA projection machines, the Dodgers will win the 2010 NL West with a 87-75 record, two games ahead of the Diamondbacks. The Snakes will tie with the Braves for the Wild Card. The NL West's Giants will finish third at .500, with the Rockies and Padres behind them in order.

The Cardinals will end the year with the best record, two games ahead of the Dodgers and one game ahead of the NL East-winning Phillies...which means we would face the Phillies in the playoffs yet again, this time in the first round.

Way to go out on a limb there on the NL, Mr. Pecota!

The Rays, Twins, and A's will win their divisions, with the Red Sox snagging the AL Wild Card.

Thanks to Big League Stew for the link.


Jason said...

If the Rays, Twins and A's all win their respective divisions George Steinbrenner's head will explode.

Though I suppose that's more likely cast of division winners than the NL equivalent: Marlins, Pirates and Padres.

Fred's Brim said...

Sounds good to me, since we've gotten good at crushing, first-round sweeps the past couple of years

anybody seen Big Fan? I saw it the other night and it really riled up my dormant Philly hatred

Paul said...

If we lose to the phillies one more time in the playoffs I don't think I will be able to get out of the fetal position again.

Kyle Baker said...

And Yank-mes don't make the playoffs? Sounds like a great algorithm they've built. They should run the BCS.

Kyle Baker said...

MLB Network: Games of the Year Countdown has Dodgers v Ordinals, Game 2 NLDS. Great slow-mo of Holliday taking it in the nads, and an interview with him. He said it was his stomach. Riiiiiiight. That's why his voice was 3 octaves higher.

Paul said...

Is Abe Pecota still alive?

Steve Sax said...

@Dusty: did I miss that airing already, yet again?

@Paul: no, abe plays for the Fish.

Paul said...

If there is brain washing shouldn't their be brain drying?

Abe plays with the fishes. I knew he flipped.

Hey bartender JoBu needs a refill!

Fite Club said...

It's nice to know that the 80's era former Royals utility guy is still making a name for himself.

Kyle Baker said...

I got a girl in tha castle and one in tha pagoda/
You know I got rhymes like Abe Vigoda

rbnlaw said...

Damn DB. Stole my comeback.

Xeifrank ran a SIM for the first 50 games of 2010. He had the Dodgers winning 59% of the games. Extrapolated over 162 games, it came out to 96 wins. It, of course, did not include the games vs. Yanks, BoTox, Tigers, and Phils.

Still, my 2010 optimism is in check.