Monday, May 05, 2014

I Feel Better Already

Vegas odds entering May have the Dodgers second in line to win the World Series:

From Bovada.lv, updated odds to win the World Series:

  • Tigers: 13/2
  • Dodgers: 15/2
  • Yankees: 10/1
  • Cardinals: 10/1
  • Braves: 11/1
  • Nationals: 11/1
  • A's: 12/1
  • Red Sox: 14/1
  • Brewers: 14/1
  • Giants: 14/1

Those are the top 10. The biggest drops from March 31 belong to the Phillies (33/1 to 75/1), Pirates (28/1 to 50/1) and Mariners (33/1 to 50/1).

Of course, those are betting odds, which are different from sabermetric projections. The Yankees have better odds of winning here because more bets are placed on them. The numbers guys don't think the Yankees are near that good.

According to FanGraphs' playoff odds, which factor in current results and season-long projections, the top 10 teams with the best chance of winning the World Series:

  • Tigers: 15.3 percent
  • Dodgers: 11.0 percent
  • A's: 10.7 percent
  • Red Sox: 8.8 percent
  • Nationals: 8.8 percent
  • Cardinals: 6.4 percent
  • Braves: 5.5 percent
  • Giants: 5.0 percent
  • Angels: 4.7 percent
  • Rangers: 3.8 percent

The series loss to Miami left a bad taste in my mouth. Hopefully Vegas gamblers' optimism rings true.

1 comments:

Fred's Brim said...

so I guess the Brewers' start is total fluke?