Saturday, July 18, 2009

National League Midseason Projections

From the Wall Street Journal on Wednesday (hey man, I'm a little behind):

National League Odds of Making The Playoffs and Winning Division:
LA Dodgers: Make Playoffs = 95.3%; Win Division = 79.7%
Giants: 64.0%; 18.2%
Rockies: 15.6%; 2.1%
Diamondbacks: 0.2%; 0.0%
Padres: 0.0%; 0.0%

I don't know if our two straight losses (or winless record post-ASG) changes these percentages any, especially since the Giants have lost two to keep 6.5 games behind. I suppose if anything our chances might improve given there's two fewer games left to play. But I'd sure like to see that 95.3% get closer to 100%...

FYI the Cardinals are 83.3%/79.3% in the Central, and the Phillies are 63.7%/61.5% in the East. All projections are based on 10,000 computer simulations of the remainder of the season, powered by AccuScore.


StolenMonkey86 said...

Let's not forget, the Dodgers lost to the Astros with Oswalt and Wandy Rodriguez on the mound.

The Giants lost 2-1 in 14 innings to the Pirates last night.