From the Wall Street Journal on Wednesday (hey man, I'm a little behind):
National League Odds of Making The Playoffs and Winning Division:
LA Dodgers: Make Playoffs = 95.3%; Win Division = 79.7%
Giants: 64.0%; 18.2%
Rockies: 15.6%; 2.1%
Diamondbacks: 0.2%; 0.0%
Padres: 0.0%; 0.0%
I don't know if our two straight losses (or winless record post-ASG) changes these percentages any, especially since the Giants have lost two to keep 6.5 games behind. I suppose if anything our chances might improve given there's two fewer games left to play. But I'd sure like to see that 95.3% get closer to 100%...
FYI the Cardinals are 83.3%/79.3% in the Central, and the Phillies are 63.7%/61.5% in the East. All projections are based on 10,000 computer simulations of the remainder of the season, powered by AccuScore.