Saturday, September 27, 2008

Watching the Final Weekend of Baseball

Okay, I'm trying to wrap my head around all of these playoff possibilities, so I know for whom I want to root as a Dodger fan to allow for the most favorable matchup in the NLDS. If anyone else wants to weigh in on this, please comment, as this sort of thing usually makes my head hurt.

As of this second, Philadelphia has a two-game lead on New York for the NL East title, and Milwaukee has a one-game lead over New York in the Wild Card race. All three teams have two games to play. First pitch for the Mets is in 10 minutes, so I've gotta get cracking here.

My logic:

  • The Dodgers will definitely end up as the division winner with the worst record, making us third in the pecking order. Normally, this means we would play the second-best division winner, which would come from the NL East.
  • However, if Milwaukee wins the Wild Card, then the Cubs can't play Milwaukee (as they are in the same division), and would instead play the Dodgers for the NLDS. I don't want the Dodgers to play the Cubs in the NLDS. The Cubs frighten me, Sports Illustrated cover this week (and jinx?) notwithstanding. They're rested, they're good, they're streaking, and this could be their year. And it would be nice for the Dodgers to win a playoff round, for the first time since 1988.
  • Instead, I want the Dodgers to play a NL East team, which means we want the Mets to overtake the Brewers in the Wild Card race. And, I want the Phillies and Mets to have to play a tie-breaker game against each other, sending their #1 pitchers to the mound in a winner-take-all game rather than having that #1 pitcher go up against Derek Lowe in Game 1 of the Dodgers' NLDS. In fact, all the way around, I'm hoping for more ties than Brad Pitt at Father's Day, so that all opponents' pitching staffs are thrown off and/or depleted.

So I think what I'm rooting for is follows:

  • New York to win its next two games and Philly to lose its next two games, forcing a tie atop the NL East and a one-game playoff;
  • Milwaukee to lose one of its next two games, which could force a second winner-take-all playoff against the loser of the Philly/New York NL East playoff, or just forces a Milwaukee/New York playoff, but then has the Mets prevailing;
  • Both one-game playoffs to go to 45 innings each, using all pitchers possible. And maybe the ground opens up and swallows up a key player or two from each team.

I've gotta write this down for my own sake, but also to test the logic with all the SoSG readers. Is this the right gameplan, folks? I could use your help sorting this out...

19 comments:

QuadSevens said...

Before the ground swallows up a few key players, there should also be a fight in both of the one game playoffs. This way some players can be suspended as well. And if for some reason a punch is actually thrown in a baseball fight, an injury may force out another key player.

Note: Ground swallowing players is much more likely than a punch being thrown.

Orel said...

I can't help with the math but wanted to commend you for "more ties than Brad Pitt at Father's Day." Well played, sir.

Alex Cora said...

Thanks for the analysis. I was getting confused on who we want to play and why and your logic seems correct. Will be scoreboard watching...

Steve Sax said...

Mets win their game. Brewers down by four in the fourth. Phils tied at 0.

karina said...

Go Mets and Phillies!. Down with the Brewers, Sabathia and Sheets. So far, things look good: Mets won, all we have to thank Santana for going the distance, on 3 days rest, giving nueve arepas, 9 k's and walking 3 ("3 is a magic number"). Phillies are winning on the bottom of the 5th, however Lannan looks with little command, hopefully the Phillies will take more advantage of him (watching that game at the moment).
Also, the Brewers are losing 4-0, top 5th.
Hopefully, the Mets and Oliver Perez will be able to win on the final game of a regular season at Shea Stadium, getting the team to the playoffs, given the Brewers lose today and tomorrow.

karina said...

Werth solo HR (after he struck out twice). Phillies 3-Nats 1, bottom of the 5th.

Eric Karros said...

I agree with the logic and quad's addendum. As a random aside, I never liked the rule preventing teams from the same division from meeting in the first round. It's just lame.

Steve Sax said...

Was at a party this morning and someone said the cubs would play the team w/the worst record, not the wild card (before exceptions apply). Is that true?

Steve Sax said...

Washington is rallying, down 3-2 in the top of the eighth

Milwaukee is on the board, still down 4-1 though

Orel said...

PHI 4, WSH 2, top 9
CHC 4, MIL 3, bot 8

Steve Sax said...

Brewers are rallying in the bottom of the eighth. Fielder just singled w/the bases loaded to move everyone up 90 ft and it's 4-3 with 1 out

Orel said...

Two on, one out for the Nats!

Steve Sax said...

Brewers hit into two consecutive force outs to end the inning 4-3. Thrown out at home on the first force was Dodgers' long-time nemesis Craig Counsell.

karina said...

Phillies clinch the NL East!

Steve Sax said...

It's over in Philly, Phils clinch. Now, we just need the Mets to win the WC, so we don't play the Cubs. I suppose that at this stage, it doesn't matter whether it goes to a tiebreaker for the wild card; in fact, we want no tiebreaker so the mets will be rested against chicago, right?

Cubs up 6-3 in the ninth on Mil. Looking like it will be all tied up in the WC with one game each to play...

Steve Sax said...

7-3 cubbies going to the bottom of the ninth.

Anyone know what the AL Central situation is? KC looks like it's up on MIN 4-2.

And #4 Florida lost to Ole Miss!

karina said...

Steve, you kept me thinking, so i researched:

The Division champion with the best overall regular-season record will have home-field advantage for the Division Series. That team will play the Wild Card in the first round unless the Wild Card comes from the same division.

Let's cross fingers Mets win and Brewers lose tomorrow.

Felix Pardalis said...

I'd love to play the Mets for payback from the playoff series a couple of years ago when there was a double play at home. Lots of stupid Met fans were laughing at that one and I can't stand to hear Met fans enjoying themselves.

Steve Sax said...

felix, Shea is a house of horrors for us. I don't think a Dodgers-Mets series would go well...but anyway, it's moot for the NLDS as the Phillies clinched (though to be fair, we could end up in Shea for the NLCS, should both teams advance).