Friday, September 21, 2007

While You Were Sweeping...

What a difference 5 days make. When we woke up last Sunday morning, the Dodgers were a mere 1.5 games out of the wildcard and had a robust 29.9% postseason chance according to Baseball Prospectus.

5 days and a Colorado sweep later, the Dodgers find themselves 6.5 games out of the WC and sporting a postseason probability of 0.21%. That's not a 0.21 probability, it's a 0.21 percent probability. Yeah...divide by another hundred.

To drop so far so fast may look like an historic meltdown, but it's really not that fast. Just consider the other major transformations the world has witnessed in the 5 days since last Sunday morning:

  • The Mets and Red Sox saw their leads shrink to 1.5 games (from 4.5 and 5.5, respectively)
  • Jonathan Broxton gave up 6 earned runs (vs 6 ERs the previous 99 days)
  • The Cleveland Browns scored 51 points
  • OJ returned to jail
  • 50 Cent became the great defender of Britney
  • And, of course, Brett Tomko collected 2 wins (vs 2 wins in his 146 days as a Dodger this year) to go with his 2.65 ERA as a Padre

Not sure what the point of this post was. I think it was meant to put things in perspective, but now I just feel worse.