Wednesday, January 31, 2007

Rob Neyer Gives Props to Dodgers, Warning to Pierre

Rob Neyer's chat wrap (from yesterday) sets high expectations for the Dodgers...:

Dan (Milton, MA): Who would you say is the strongest team in the NL heading into the season?

Rob Neyer: That's a really good question, Dan. We can poke holes in every candidacy, can't we? I guess without doing any actual analysis, I like the Mets and perhaps the Dodgers best. But those holes...

...and a standard for Juan Pierre (58 SB / 20 CS in 2006):

greg (toronto): Is there a mathematical reason behind saying that basestealers should have at least a 75% success rate?

Rob Neyer: Yes, there is. The number moves around depending on what else is happening in baseball, but these days it's definitely upwards of 70 percent.

Juan's 2006 rate comes out to 74.4%. If he'd have converted one more, he would have made the Neyer threshold.

UPDATE: Sorry, but adding one more point from Jerry Crasnick's latest chat didn't seem to merit a separate post. In his chat, he puts the pressure on Ethier and Kemp for 2007:

Harry (Tallahassee, FL): I'm a HUGE LA Dodgers fan. I'm wondering, with all the off-season signings (but the losses of Maddux, Drew and Gagne), what are the Dodgers' chances of making it to the World Series?

Jerry Crasnick: Harry, I love the pitching depth, but we're talking about a team that ranked 15th in the National League in homers and replaced J.D. Drew with Luis Gonzalez. They need Ethier or Matt Kemp or someone to have an impact.