Monday, February 27, 2012

Matt Kemp, Second To Braun In NL Fantasy Sports As Well?

So now that he's dodged the 50-game suspension, Ryan Braun has vaulted to the top of the fantasy baseball charts, backed by statisticians who hope that he continues to have his allegedly-doped samples mismanaged by future sample handlers. I'm okay with that...but I'm more excited to see our own Matt Kemp right there behind Braun, second in the NL and fourth overall:

Braun vaults to the very top of my first round, Numero Uno, and of course the feedback was interesting (and always welcome). My take is simple: This 30/30 guy was a fantasy monster last season (third on the Player Rater) and I don't see any reason why that will change in 2012. In fact, he should be mighty motivated to ensure another splendid statistical year.

Of course, others do have reasons why Mr. Braun will not repeat his exceptional numbers, so let's discuss them in this forum.

Question: Aren't you worried that he'll regress now that he's off the juice?

Answer: First of all, I'm paraphrasing for what was the most common choice of verbiage. I don't know what Braun did or did not do to trigger a positive test, to be honest, and while the cloud around his reputation might or might not have lessened after his stellar press conference on Friday, the fact is I am not reading too much into the situation. Braun had a magical year. He's had other terrific seasons as well. This is not Brady Anderson or Luis Gonzalez producing numbers shown in time to be aberrant to their respective careers. Braun hit 33 home runs, knocked in 111 runs, scored 109 and hit .332. He stole 33 bases. The previous four seasons he hit .307 and averaged 32 home runs, 105 RBIs, 99 runs and 16 steals. Braun's 2011 might end up an outlier to some degree -- mainly batting average and steals -- but he's not Jason Bay, either. Braun has been a top-5 player for years.

I'm not a doctor and let's face it, even doctors can't say for sure to what effect steroids play a precise role on performance. We don't know if Braun took anything, and if he did, when he actually took it, and I'm simply not going to play the guessing game projecting ahead and expecting major regression. I expect he'll remain, as he was before, one of the most durable and consistent players in the game, one of perhaps five or so outfielders capable of making a run at 30/30, and safe to own. [...]

Here's the rest of my top 10, as of today, with potential downside, though I don't really buy the downside as likely to occur.

2. Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit Tigers: Switching positions often trips hitters up. And while I'm not big on lineup protection, who's protecting him?

3. Albert Pujols, 1B, Los Angeles Angels: Switching leagues often trips hitters up. And just look at the rest of that underwhelming lineup.

4. Matt Kemp, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers: Who owns the franchise? And didn't this guy hit .249 in 2010?

Yep, Matt Kemp's 2012 productivity is constrained by the Dodgers' ownership lack of clarity. Of course, that makes total sense...and, it explains 2011.

12 comments:

Hideo Nomo said...

This 30/30 guy was a fantasy monster last season (third on the Player Rater) and I don't see any reason why that will change in 2012.

Nope! No reason at all!

Mr. LA Sports Czar said...

Sax isn't bitter.

Mr. LA Sports Czar said...

I don't like this new commenting format. I'm not going to comment on Blogger until it changes.

Hideo Nomo said...

Marla isn't bitter.

Eric the Ice King said...

I'd really love to see Braun put up better numbers with the likely scrutiny of random PED tests and no Prince Fielder protecting him in the order. I know that MLB failed to prove his doping, but he is by no means 'innocent' or cleared by custody of the sample being botched.

Franklin Stubbs said...

*cracks open a Victoria Bitter*

Hideo Nomo said...

And it's a stubbie too.

Franklin Stubbs said...

Indeed. I make up for it with technique, though.

Dusty Baker said...

Was this a Blogger backend change or did our IS department get back from the Oscars after-after-after party very hungover and make a bad decision about comment formatting?

MR.F said...

Holy crap this looks weird.

Dusty Baker said...

I fear change!!!!

Steve Sax said...

I don't like this comment format either. Boooooo