Tuesday, March 20, 2007

Forecasts Aplenty

From "It's anyone's ball game: Freeway World Series beckons as parity grips MLB" by Tom Verducci at SI.com:

This just in: The Yankees probably won't win this year, either, even if they do have the best team on paper heading into Opening Day. The World Series? It'll be all SoCal -- the Angels over the Dodgers. Why? Because the best team doesn't win any more; teams with young legs do. These are five reasons why the game has changed to the point that the Yankees' philosophy is obsolete.

Verducci's reasons?

1. Better distribution of revenues and information. (Translation: better distribution of talent.)
2. The postseason is a crapshoot.
3. The best team doesn't win.
4. Franchise turnarounds are common.
5. Experience is overrated.

Not exactly a vote of confidence for having the best team, but if it results in the World Series, I'll take it.

On the other hand, Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA Depth Charts paints a much bleaker picture. Namely, this order of finish for the NL West:

  • Diamondbacks
  • Padres
  • Rockies
  • Dodgers
  • Giants

Meanwhile, Jerry Crasnick at ESPN.com notes, "Dodgers' prospects earning mixed spring reviews."


cigarcow said...

Yeah, Verducci = nonsense hackery.