Baseball Predictions, Part 4: ESPN the Magazine

ESPN the Magazine's baseball preview was very confusing; in the print edition, instead of breaking down the playoffs by round, they just say the Nationals will beat the Tigers (going out on a big limb there, guys). That said, ESPN also fess up that they made 378 preseason picks of pennant winners in the period from 2007 to 2012, and only 5.8% of them (22) were correct; the best ESPN talking head only got two guesses correct in that six-year period (tie: Enrique Rojas, Jayson "Not Werth" Stark, and Jim Caple).

So maybe I should be worried to read that ESPN the Magazine picks the Dodgers to win the NL West:

LOS ANGELES DODGERS: THE PICK--1st Place

98 wins if … All the pieces fit like magic: Adrian Gonzalez drives in a career-high 130 runs in his first full LA season, Matt Kemp's hamstring is forgotten as he again vies for MVP, Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke combine for 42 wins, and Kenley Jansen and Brandon League deal without falloff for a stacked bullpen that held opponents to a .221 batting average (fourth in MLB) last season.

83 wins if … The pieces fracture and the clubhouse melts under high expectations as Hanley Ramirez -- who hasn't had a plus UZR/150 at short since 2008 -- sorely misses playing third base, Kemp gets hurt again, and Josh Beckett comes nowhere near matching his full-season bests of a 1.03 WHIP and 2.89 ERA, set in 2011.

Unpredictability score -- 1.81: While the rotation has depth, the question-filled lineup is a muscle pull away from too much Skip Schumaker and Juan Uribe. Odds of a thrilling ride are matched by a nightmarish scenario in which the rebuilt rotation finds itself, yet again, as a great engine on a car missing a wheel.

Here's two other things that were in the Mag but not I can't find the link online (think of this as a SoSG BONUS!!! Not to mention a typing refresher for Sax here):

Dodgers: While the rotation had depth, the question-filled lineup is a muscle pull away from too much Skip Schumaker and Juan Uribe. Odds of a thrilling ride are matched by a nightmarish rotation finds itself, yet again, as a great engine on a car missing a wheel.

Carl Crawford: The Dodgers made a $100 million gamble on Crawford, whose two injury-plagued seasons in Boston produced far less than his nine in Tampa Bay. His OBP with the Sox was .292, a full 45 points less than with the Rays. LA needs the Ray of hope back.

Giants are picked for second, followed by the Snakes, Pads, and Rockies.