Baseball Predictions, Part 9: Jon Paul Morosi

The taller of the two Fox Sports baseball analysts, Jon Paul Morosi, also doesn't have the Dodgers winning the NL West in 2013. Unfortunately, he's got the Dodgers all the way down at third place in the NL West, behind the Diamondbacks and Giants:

NL WEST

Diamondbacks: The late-spring injury to Adam Eaton will make the lineup less dynamic, but there’s more than enough outfield depth to compensate. The organization is pitching-rich, with Daniel Hudson set to return from Tommy John surgery at midseason.

Giants: They pitch superbly, they play together, and they score just enough runs to win. Tim Lincecum’s performance in his contract year will be fascinating to follow.

Dodgers: Profligate spending has yielded a roster of ill-fitting pieces. Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke will keep the Dodgers in contention, but this team needs an MVP-type season from Matt Kemp to reach the playoffs.

Padres: The momentum from last year’s second half has stalled, between Yasmani Grandal’s PED suspension and spring injuries to Chase Headley and Casey Kelly. The good news is that Jedd Gyorko will have ample opportunity to establish him as an everyday player.

Rockies: Four-man rotation, five-man rotation, six-man rotation — it wouldn’t matter. The Rockies don’t have enough good pitchers. But they will be watchable if Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez are healthy.

Morosi starts out the article claiming that he correctly predicted the Giants over the Rangers in the 2010 World Series, a claim that might be true (I'm too tired to find it online) and is dated anyway. But if he's right?

Morose, I.

Baseball Predictions, Part 8: Ken Rosenthal

Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal is not the tallest of reporters, a fact which is totally cool by me. But it's kind of funny that his writing (mostly tweeting, by the way) is pretty short-form as well. If I'm reading his capsule factoids correctly, he's got the Giants ahead of the Dodgers this year (but it's kinda hard to tell from his words):

NL WEST

Giants: Need Tim Lincecum and Barry Zito to extend 2012 postseason magic; otherwise, back of rotation becomes real concern.

Dodgers: Train-wreck potential. And then they’ll sign Robinson Cano and Jacoby Ellsbury.

Diamondbacks: Chance to surprise due to their pitching, potential of Paul Goldschmidt to explode.

Padres: Will be better in second half than first once Chase Headley, Yasmani Grindal return and rest of pitching gets healthy.

Rockies: Actually like their offense. Their pitching is a threat to public safety.

The Rockies got only 12 words from Robothal. The Snakes only got 13 words.

But we only got 11 words. At least he didn't say "highest payroll in baseball", I suppose.

Baseball Predictions, Part 7: Jayson Stark

Jayson Stark polled 18 MLB executives and scouts (I assume they're from the MLB; to be fair, he didn't specify). And based on his poll and his gut, Stark has the Dodgers achieving one of the eight 2013 playoff spots:

Los Angeles Dodgers

Why they'll win: In case you hadn't noticed, they're all in. Heck, in the history of all-in-ness, there might never have been a team more all in than this. They have a $217 million payroll. They can run a Kershaw/Greinke/Ryu/Beckett rotation at you in a short series. They have a bunch of potential impact bats in Matt Kemp, Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Andre Ethier and (one of these months) Hanley Ramirez, with the dazzling Yasiel Puig lurking. And as one NL scout so eloquently put it, "they've got more money than anyone. They can go buy anything they need to buy in July. So it's hard to keep them off the list." Exactly. Maybe the most fascinating team in the sport.

Why they might not: One after another, the folks I polled talked about how much this mix of players and personalities basically terrifies them. Among the reviews: "They're like an All-Star team, except they'll be together for 162 games. Can that much money and that much ego fit together on one team?" … "Too many stray pieces thrown together for me." … "Not the kind of team you'd think you'd see for $220 million. They're like the land of misfit toys." … "A lot of different personalities and a lot of different injuries. I just don't see it working." … And, finally, "They scare the hell out of me," said one exec. "But if they win 97 games, I'd totally believe it."

Stark also has the Giants sneaking in with a playoff spot, too. And the Nationals to win it all.

Baseball Predictions, Part 6: Keith Law

More punditry from ESPN! And Keith Law predicts the Giants repeat as NL West champs, with 92 wins, three ahead of the Dodgers (a reverse of what Dan Szymborski predicted (link insider only):

The San Francisco Giants brought the same crew back for 2013, usually not an ideal strategy but likely to prevent enough runs to at least win one of the wild-card spots with just an average offense. Tim Lincecum could be the difference between a division title and a spot in the play-in game. (In case you missed it, I discussed Lincecum's outlook on this week's podcast with Giants beat writer Andy Baggarly.)

The Los Angeles Dodgers have pitching depth, with seven viable starters if you believe Chad Billingsley can avoid Tommy John surgery (I don't), and when their lineup is healthy, it's one of the better ones in the league. However, Hanley Ramirez was probably the position player they could least afford to lose other than Matt Kemp.

Law also predicts Stephen Strasburg gets the Cy Young over Clayton Kershaw.

I don't want to fight the Law, but I don't agree.

Baseball Predictions, Part 5: Jim Bowden Goes Bold

ESPN.com's Jim Bowden always puts up some bold predictions for what might take place this season. And one of them involves the Dodgers (link insider only):

5. Yasiel Puig comes up as an injury replacement, and “Yasielmania” ensues.

Puig was the most dynamic player I saw all spring and reminded me of a cross between Bo Jackson and Yoenis Cespedes. I wrote about his tremendous abilities in my blog last week. A Matt Kemp/Puig combination has a chance to be the best power/speed tandem in the game. Puig’s at-bats will be must-see events, and he will electrify Dodger Stadium, bringing back the memories of “Fernandomania,” when Fernando Valenzuela routinely sold out Chavez Ravine during his starts.

I wish no ill will or injury toward any of the Dodgers' three starting outfielders. That said, I'm jealous that my fellow son AC got to see Puig in action this spring...I sure would love to see Puigmania ensue, too.

photo: Mark Duncan / AP

Baseball Predictions, Part 4: ESPN the Magazine

ESPN the Magazine's baseball preview was very confusing; in the print edition, instead of breaking down the playoffs by round, they just say the Nationals will beat the Tigers (going out on a big limb there, guys). That said, ESPN also fess up that they made 378 preseason picks of pennant winners in the period from 2007 to 2012, and only 5.8% of them (22) were correct; the best ESPN talking head only got two guesses correct in that six-year period (tie: Enrique Rojas, Jayson "Not Werth" Stark, and Jim Caple).

So maybe I should be worried to read that ESPN the Magazine picks the Dodgers to win the NL West:

LOS ANGELES DODGERS: THE PICK--1st Place

98 wins if … All the pieces fit like magic: Adrian Gonzalez drives in a career-high 130 runs in his first full LA season, Matt Kemp's hamstring is forgotten as he again vies for MVP, Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke combine for 42 wins, and Kenley Jansen and Brandon League deal without falloff for a stacked bullpen that held opponents to a .221 batting average (fourth in MLB) last season.

83 wins if … The pieces fracture and the clubhouse melts under high expectations as Hanley Ramirez -- who hasn't had a plus UZR/150 at short since 2008 -- sorely misses playing third base, Kemp gets hurt again, and Josh Beckett comes nowhere near matching his full-season bests of a 1.03 WHIP and 2.89 ERA, set in 2011.

Unpredictability score -- 1.81: While the rotation has depth, the question-filled lineup is a muscle pull away from too much Skip Schumaker and Juan Uribe. Odds of a thrilling ride are matched by a nightmarish scenario in which the rebuilt rotation finds itself, yet again, as a great engine on a car missing a wheel.

Here's two other things that were in the Mag but not I can't find the link online (think of this as a SoSG BONUS!!! Not to mention a typing refresher for Sax here):

Dodgers: While the rotation had depth, the question-filled lineup is a muscle pull away from too much Skip Schumaker and Juan Uribe. Odds of a thrilling ride are matched by a nightmarish rotation finds itself, yet again, as a great engine on a car missing a wheel.

Carl Crawford: The Dodgers made a $100 million gamble on Crawford, whose two injury-plagued seasons in Boston produced far less than his nine in Tampa Bay. His OBP with the Sox was .292, a full 45 points less than with the Rays. LA needs the Ray of hope back.

Giants are picked for second, followed by the Snakes, Pads, and Rockies.

Baseball Predictions, Part 3: ESPN's Szymborski

Dan Szymborski does his zippy little ZIPS projections (million simulations, Monte Carlo method (because the Venetian and Bellagio methods are too expensive), and he's got the Dodgers winning the NL West with 90 wins, three ahead of the Giants (link insider only):

The projections do reflect the hit the Los Angeles Dodgers take from losing Hanley Ramirez and a grumpier innings estimate for Zack Greinke in light of his recent arm soreness, so no need to mentally chop off a couple wins. The Dodgers won't win any awards for thrift (that would be an odd award), but they've put together a solid, if overly expensive, team for 2013. They are slight favorites, but there's plenty of room for an unhappy end to the season.

The San Francisco Giants remain in the thick of it, about the quality of last year's team. Last year's team won the World Series, so that's not necessarily a bad thing, but the Dodgers and Diamondbacks are likely to be better than they were last year. Warning: ZiPS is assuming that Brandon Belt won't continue to be benched for weeks every time he goes 0-for-4.

Szymborski gives the Dodgers a 41.5% chance to win the division (Giants are at 29.7%). The Dodgers are a 60.9% chance to make the playoffs and a 6.4% chance to win the World Series (the Nationals lead the NL with 7.8% and the Reds are at 6.8%; Atlanta is also at 6.4%).

Baseball Predictions, Part 2: Sports Illustrated (Again)

Here's why SI thinks the Dodgers won't win the World Series in 2013 (a photo essay in which each of the 30 teams has an entry):

Los Angeles Dodgers

As the Dodgers take over the major league lead for payroll, it's worth noting that the Yankees are just 1-for-their-last-12 in converting the biggest bucks to the big prize. The Dodgers have over $300 million worth of future commitments to an outfield that features two players coming off major surgeries and one who can't hit lefties -- so of course they're likely to farm out the guy hitting .526. (SI's Experts Predictions)

photo: Paul Sancya, AP

Baseball Predictions, Part 1: Sports Illustrated

Clayton Kershaw was featured in one of six regional covers to this week's SI.

Tomorrow, as Nomo put it, REAL baseball begins! (That's right, the Houston season opener tonight doesn't count, particularly as I get used to having them in the AL and f'ing up interleague play to persist all season long in 2013.) Here's the first in a series of prediction articles: Sports Illustrated, in which three of the seven writers polled picked the Dodgers to win the NL West. Here's Ben Reiter's comments:

The most financially lopsided World Series of all time -- LA's 2013 payroll could exceed Tampa Bay's by a factor of four -- will be won by the penny-pinchers. The Rays match the Dodgers in depth and quality of pitching (they could have seven above-average starters if you count Roberto Hernandez, eight if you count Fausto Carmona, which you shouldn't) but exceed them in fielding, versatility and relentlessness.

Tom Verducci picked the Giants, who finished with two votes; the Snakes and Padres stole one vote each. Of course, everyone picked the Nationals or Tigers to win it all...except the aforementioned Reiter, who picked the Rays. Hmm.

Meanwhile, four of the seven picked our man, Clayton Kershaw, for the 2013 Cy Young:

Joe Lemire: Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers. Aside from one being a lefty and the other a righty, Kershaw and Justin Verlander are essentially mirror images. They are of similar height and effectiveness, both won their league's pitching Triple Crown and the Cy Young awards in 2011 and finished as Cy runners-up in '12. Look for the Dodgers' southpaw to lead the majors in ERA for a third straight season.

Jay Jaffe: Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers. It's tempting to say Stephen Strasburg here, but he has yet to reach 162 innings in a professional season, let alone the 200 or more that Cy Young contention essentially requires. Kershaw already has one Cy on his mantle from 2011, and was nearly as good last year.

Cliff Corcoran: Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers. Sure, Stephen Strasburg is the sexy choice, but Kershaw, like Verlander, won this award in 2011 and finished second in 2012, a year in which he finished second in the voting and was every bit as good as the man who won. I want to see how Strasburg holds up over a 200-inning workload before I'm willing to pick him over a 25-year-old stud whose career ERA (2.79, 138 ERA+) is better than Strasburg's was in 159 1/3 innings last year (3.16, 125 ERA+).

Joe Sheehan: Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers. Kershaw won the award in 2011 and was arguably the best pitcher in the NL last year as well. In the NL right now, only Cliff Lee approaches his performance level and durability.

In the "Free Agent Flop" category (which Red Sox acquisition and former Dodger flop Shane Victorino won in a landslide with four votes), Verducci picks the Dodgers' Zack Greinke:

Verducci: Zack Greinke, Dodgers. Any elbow issue in spring training is a red flag, and even when healthy he has yet to put together back-to-back very good seasons of 200 innings.

photo: Brad Mangin, SI