Monday, October 01, 2012

Three Games Left. Six Outcomes. Two Games To Make Up.

So it comes down to this: two three-game series, Dodgers-Giants and Cardinals-Reds. The Giants have nothing at stake except the pride of their rivalry; the Reds are arguably fighting for home-field advantage (with the Nationals) as well as their own NL Central rivalry.

We need the Reds to take the series against St. Louis, if not sweep them outright. And we need to step up and win the series against the Giants, if not sweep them outright.

That's a lot of pressure. ESPN says we've got a 4.8% chance of earning that second wild card spot, for the right to play Atlanta in a one-game playoff of postseason baseball.

As someone said in the comments, this situation here in 2012 is indeed bleak, but then, did we ever really think we'd be contending this year in the first place? Given the new ownership taking the reins midway through the year, I never thought we'd be contending for the playoffs up to the final series of the year.

Sure, I did think the late-season trades we made would prove to have a higher yield than what we've seen. But I look at our current five-game win streak as hope for 2013, and at worst perhaps a complication as we consider the last-week performance of some of our players (some of whom have sucked since joining the Dodgers) and try to determine their potential for next season and beyond.

But this last series is about the here and now, and as one of only two people at SoSG Fest III who publicly admitted that we believed the Dodgers would make the playoffs, my optimism hasn't been totally squelched as of yet. At least, mathematically speaking.

I am resolved to the fact that it will likely be the Giants who knock us out, on our home field. And though I am resolved to root against them with fervor as they move on, I know this last series will be painful to watch as we become eliminated.

But I know I'll watch.

Let's go, Dodgers! PLAYOFFS!

Your pressure-generating reading links of this morning:


Franklin Stubbs said...

If we pick up a game tonight, then we'll talk.

I'd much rather be eliminated on the scoreboard than on the field, as a general rule, however.

Hideo Nomo said...

The battle for the right to get fed to Kris Medlen begins!

Steve Sax said...

And if it weren't for that Medlen Kris, we would have gotten away with it.

Paul said...

I guess that game when Jansen forgot about the runner on third has impacted our October.

Hideo Nomo said...

This series is haunting us. That was in May, when they were still playing inexplicably good baseball.

A split and we're tied with STL right now. A series win or a sweep the other way and we're in the lead. (If you want to call 5th best "leading".)

Neeebs (The Original) said...

So it boils down to this?

Dodgers Sweep, we are in if Reds Sweep and tie if St. Louis loses 2/3.

Dodgers Win 2/3, we are tied if Reds sweep.

That simple?

Am I missing something?

Hideo Nomo said...

That's it. We can't lose more than 1. And if we lose 1, Reds HAVE to sweep.

Paul said...

Really it is 85% Juan Uribe's fault.

Franklin Stubbs said...

Actually, Uribe has had a WAR of 0.1, as compared to Cruz with a WAR of 2.6.

Even MATH agrees it's his fault.

Cliff Beefpile said...

Shit. Long fly ball out by Brandon Phillips.

Cliff Beefpile said...

Joey Votto makes it to 2nd on a throwing error, tying run coming to the plate

Cliff Beefpile said...

Wow, our season rests on the shoulders of Xavier Paul.

Cliff Beefpile said...

Aaaaand no. Fack.