Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Matt Kemp And His Amazing Increase In WAR

I knew that Matt Kemp's 2011 season was a breakout one. Until I read this piece by David Schoenfield, however, I didn't realize it was the best year-to-year jumps ever:

Mark Simon and I teased this on the Baseball Today podcast, so here it is. Tom from Melbourne, Fla., writes in:

I have a slew of answers for Friday's ridiculous question regarding greatest difference in WAR in consecutive years. For the analysis, I wrote a program to search player profiles and career stats on Baseball-Reference.com for every major league player in history. Here are the results.

Largest one-year increase in WAR for batters (min 350 PA in each year): A total of 30 players have had increases in WAR of greater than 6.0 in a year. The largest one-year increase was by Rickey Henderson from his rookie season in 1979 (-1.0 WAR) to his sophomore season in 1980 (8.7 WAR), a difference of +9.7 WAR. The top-10 list includes several Hall of Famers (Henderson, Eddie Collins, Babe Ruth, Mike Schmidt), two active players (Matt Kemp, Josh Hamilton), a guy called "Nails" (Lenny Dykstra, of course), and two guys who had a standout season (Bret Boone, Tommy Harper). Boone went from a WAR of 0.0 in 2000 to an MVP-esque WAR of 8.5 in 2001.

OK, this is Dave again. I'll run Tom's lists with some of my own commentary.

Player
Team
Years
WAR
Increase
Rickey Henderson
A's
1979 to 1980
-1.0 to 8.7
+9.7 WAR
Matt Kemp
Dodgers
2010 to 2011
-1.4 to 7.8
+9.2 WAR
Lenny Dykstra
Mets/Phillies
1989 to 1990
-0.3 to 8.8
+9.1 WAR
Bret Boone
Padres/Mariners
2000 to 2001
0.0 to 8.5
+8.5 WAR
Eddie Collins
A's
1908 to 1909
1.2 to 9.4
+8.2 WAR
Josh Hamilton
Rangers
2009 to 2010
0.4 to 8.4
+8.0 WAR
Babe Ruth
Yankees
1925 to 1926
3.2 to 11.1
+7.9 WAR
Mike Schmidt
Phillies
1973 to 1974
1.7 to 9.5
+7.8 WAR
Babe Ruth
Yankees
1922 to 1923
6.0 to 13.7
+7.7 WAR
Tommy Harper
Pilots/Brewers
1969 to 1970
-0.1 to 7.2
+7.3 WAR

Pretty frickin' awesome breakout year for Kemp; in fact, the second-best of all time, from a WAR differential perspective.

0 comments: