Wednesday, October 21, 2009
Matt Kemp: The Bison As A Team Leader
Remember a year and a half ago, when everyone was ready to give up on Matt Kemp? Because he had what was perceived to be a surly disposition? Because he couldn't hold up on the down-and-away pitches that struck him out at a crazy rate? Because he would make baserunning gaffes and take bizarre routes to fly balls that overshadowed his speed?
How about you, Bill Plaschke, he whose opinion of Kemp blows with the winds?
Those of us who have supported the full cadre of high-potential kids on the Dodgers squad--yes, that includes the season-long disapppointment of Russell Martin, as well as the late disappointment of Chad Billingsley and Jonathan Broxton; along with James Loney and Andre Ethier, of course)--always knew that Kemp has the potential to be a future star. Kemp's .297/.352/.490 numbers this year, an OPS+ of 120, a career high of 26 HR and 101 RBI on top of fewer strikeouts than last year, all indicate how Kemp's trajectory is still very positive.
And now, I can't help but smile as I see his leadership abilities as well. On his blog, here's how Kemp initially (2.30am on the day following the loss) described the depression of the Game 4 loss:
This game was just shocking. That team is so much like us, it's kind of crazy. A very similar team as far as hitting. They never give up. They keep fighting. It's crazy, same thing happened to us last year. Then it was a home run, but it's just crazy what's happened to us here.
All we can do is win three in a row. Hopefully we can go home happy, down 3-2. We get it back to L.A., I think we have a good chance. I really do.We got to come back on Wednesday and we gotta fight and keep on pushing. We got practice tomorrow and we got to go about our business. We still have a lot of fight left, I really believe that. I know when it's time to play a game, we'll be ready. We need a win to take it back to L.A. It hurts right now. It happens to the best of us. We're going to try to ride this thing out.
And then, later last night:
Our mood is good, man. I'm going to check out a haunted house tonight, supposed to be pretty scary. Can't sit in the room all night and just think about last night's game. Sleep in a little bit tomorrow, get some food, chill out. Same routine, nothing's going to change. Everybody has faith in us. My friends tell me to keep your head up. This is the right team to come back from 3 to 1. I'm good. I'd be way more looser if it was 2-2 going into tomorrow, because we hit Cole pretty good the first time we played him. But this is just something we have to deal with and fight through it.Joe had a meeting before we went out to the field and just told us to take it one game at a time. You got to win one to win two, got to win two to win three. It's a one-game series for us, that's how we have to think. We get back home, I like our chances, I like the way we play there.
Maybe Kemp didn't write these entries, maybe Josh Rawitch is ghostwriting these from his blackberry (Rawitch is rumored to have an affinity for haunted houses, so that may be the case). And one shouldn't think more highly of one player who decides to write and post his thoughts to the world, relative to another player who might be more introverted or private.
But what if this is Kemp? Can you believe that a 24-year-old has this type of poise and resilience and stiffness in the upper lip? And don't you think that everyone else on that team who might have shreds of doubt is either reading this blog, or listening to Kemp in the locker room, and following his lead?
This is the kind of maturity, inspiration, and poise that I want to see from this Dodger team. This is Matt Kemp, team leader. And I have to say, I'm impressed.
We (okay, maybe mostly me) here at SoSG have always been very partial to James Loney, with the whole Free James Loney campaign in 2007 and all. But I've become a big fan of Matt Kemp this year, and it's been solidified with these two blog posts. Thanks, Matt, for being a great Dodger. And go get 'em tonight.
GO DODGERS!
Being Down 3-1 Relative to Being Tied 2-2
As I've mentioned prior, even down three games to one in the 2009 NLCS, Baseball Prospectus has us at 15% odds to win all three games and take the NLCS title. It can happen, it has happened to 12 teams since the playoffs began, and three teams in the last seven years, if my math is correct.
So say we pulled out that Game 4 after all. I've run the numbers, and my analysis says that only 50% of the teams that are tied 2-2 in a best-of-seven series go on to win the series. You may want to check my math on this, but I've carried the 1 and I think it's true.
It can still happen.
GO DODGERS!
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
Scoreboard Watching: Yankees @ Angels, 5p
Still in the mood for baseball? Then this thread's for you.
photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images
Hi-Diddly-Ho! Ned Extended
Dodgers and GM Ned Colletti reach agreement on contract extension (LA Times)
Congrats to Ned. It looks like terms haven't been announced yet, but we'll update as soon as we hear.
UPDATE: Frank McCourt's official statement:
One of our core promises to our fans is championship caliber baseball, year in and year out. Ned has been instrumental in our going a long way towards fulfilling that promise. I couldn't be happier for him, both personally and professionally. The stability and continuity that extending his contract provides will further help us achieve the goal of being a consistent winner and I'm thrilled that he will continue to lead our baseball operations into the future.
Colletti:
My time here in Los Angeles has been very special to me and I'm honored to be associated with this tremendous franchise. I'm very proud of what our baseball operations staff has accomplished over the last four years and I'm grateful for the support of the fans who have truly made me feel at home. I'm hopeful that we can bring them the championship they deserve in the very near future.
Keep Hope Alive!
It's a new day in Los Angeles, the sun is shining, the birds are singing. And even thought the bitterness of last night's defeat lingers in one's mouth like cigars after a long night of scotch-drinking, already the pain is beginning to subside. And in the spirit of the eternally optimistic Jon Weisman over at Dodger Thoughts, I still hold out hope that we can pull this NLCS off.
Crazy, I know. Last night was a gut-punch (or a face punch, depending on your perspective and if you have wallabies around), but no different from the way Phillies fans must have felt after we took Game 2 with the Andre Ethier bases-loaded walk. The thing about a seven-game series is, unlike the best-of-five League Divisional Series, the best team usually wins, and fluke victories tend to balance out.
So we trade off flukes with Philly, so what? Unlike Games 2 and 3, our offense showed some signs of life last night. Unlike Games 2 and 3, we broke through against the starting Phillies pitcher. Unlike I don't know how long, Manny Ramirez came up with a fine defensive play late in the game.
There is of course a delicious irony to the much-maligned Phillies bullpen surviving the late innings, and Jonathan Broxton's repeat Game 4 meltdown involving Matt Stairs, ever-predictably chronicled by the LAT's resident hack this morning (very nice call by SoSG reader Erin last night, hours before press deadlines). Depressing? Yes. Series-clinching? Possibly, even probably.
But, not necessarily. Those of us Dodger faithful can still believe in the team's resilience, in Joe Torre's wisdom, in Fox's television ratings boons. If Brad Lidge can get it together, so can Broxton, even after a disappointing loss like this (remember, he shut down the side in Game 2 with similar heat). Our postseason odds of winning the NLCS are at 15%, only a a couple points behind the Angels, who have one game less of a deficit in their series.
This can happen. This may be the Zoloft talking, but I believe it to be true. And here are five reasons off the top of my head why we can keep hope alive:
1. Teams can come back from 3-1 deficits; 12 teams have done it to date. Boston did it in the 2007 ALCS vs. Cleveland (winning Game 5 at Jacobs before coming back to romp two games at Fenway, en route to another World Series title); and of course they dug out of an even bigger hole against the Yankees in the 2004 ALCS. In the National League, the most recent was the 2003 Marlins, who came back from a 3-1 deficit against the Chicago Cubs. The full list (please check my work on this):
- 1903 Boston Americans (Red Sox), down 1-3, won WS 5-3 over Pittsburgh.
- 1925 Pittsburgh Pirates, down 1-3, won WS 4-3 over Washington.
- 1958 New York Yankees, down 1-3, won WS 4-3 over Milwaukee.
- 1968 Detroit Tigers, down 1-3, won WS 4-3 over St. Louis.
- 1979 Pittsburgh Pirates, down 1-3, won WS 4-3 over Baltimore.
- 1985 Kansas City Royals, down 1-3, won ALCS 4-3 over Toronto.
- 1985 Kansas City Royals, down 1-3, won WS 4-3 over St. Louis.
- 1986 Boston Red Sox, down 1-3, won ALCS 4-3 over California.
- 1996 Atlanta Braves, down 1-3, won NLCS 4-3 over St. Louis.
- 2003 Florida Marlins, down 1-3, won NLCS 4-3 over Chicago.
- 2004 Boston Red Sox, down 0-3 (and 1-3), won ALCS 4-3 over New York.
- 2007 Boston Red Sox, down 1-3, won ALCS 4-3 over Cleveland.
2. Three wins in a row, for this Dodger team, was a common trend this season. The Dodgers have had 25 three-game win streaks this season; 28 if you count the first three games of the postseason as well. If you count discrete streaks of three games or more, the Dodgers have 11 of those, 12 if you count the postseason.
3. Three losses in a row, for this Dodger team, is relatively uncommon. Remember, we didn't get our first three-game loss streak until our 100th game, at the end of July, holding out longer than any other major league team. Until then, we had resisted the consecutive loss trifecta--just as we can by winning Game 5.
4. We need to take this one game at a time, and on the mound for us tomorrow is Vicente Padilla, who has definitely had a hot hand of late for the Dodgers. Playing like a stud since the Dodgers picked him up off the scrap heap, Padilla has been 5-0 for Los Angeles, including a postseason victory against the Cardinals (on the road, to clinch the NLDS), and hasn't had a loss yet as a Dodger. Wednesday night won't break this pattern. Furthermore, Shane Victorino won't get a chance to choose which body part Padilla will be allowed to target. All we need is to win once with Padilla to get the series back to Los Angeles, where we are 50-31 with a .617 winning percentage; 53-32 / .624 if you count the playoffs.
5. Ticket to Game 6 are still available, and I want to go. And I don't have anything else to do Friday night. I just want to see another game at the Stadium, cheering on our Dodgers. And I don't think that's too much to ask of the baseball gods.
It can happen. So you'd better watch.
GO DODGERS!
A Somber SoSG Three-Year Anniversary
This was supposed to be a great post, a post on an off-day when we would be two games away from advancing to the World Series. But with two out in the ninth inning last night, storylines change. Series change. Hairstyles change.
I'm going to postpone words on our third anniversary here at Sons of Steve Garvey, for when...make that IF, we cross the 1,000,000 hit threshold. It would be presumptuous for me to think we're going to get there, even though IMHO, we have written some of our best content this year, and in kind enjoyed the best-trafficked year in our short existence. I'm very proud of what this blog has become, of the Sons with which I share an office, and of the great community that we've been able to build here at SoSG. But for now, I'm feeling pretty bummed out, just as our team must feel, down three games to one. I need a moment, please. And I promise I can encapsulate better and more insightful thoughts than I can this evening.
Happy third anniversary, Sons of Steve Garvey. And please excuse me if right now, I don't feel much like celebrating.
Monday, October 19, 2009
NLCS Game 4 Thread @ Liberty Belles, 5p
Randy Wolf vs. Joe Blanton.
COMMENTS: See those numbers atop the post, and how some of them have a strike line through them, and some of them don't? Math geniuses might have gleaned that it marks how many wins we have to achieve this postseason to claim the ultimate title. And we've got just about the same amount of marks now as we had last year, after sweeping another NL Central team in the first round (the Cubs), only to hit a roadblock against the Phillies.
In fact, there's a lot of parallels to where we were last year at this time. Down two games to one, we were coasting along with a 5-3 lead in 2008 NLCS Game 4, having scored five runs off of the same Philly starter we'll face tonight, Joe Blanton (5 ER in 7 IP in 2008 NLCS Game 4; 12-8 with a 4.05 ERA in 2009). We then met up against Shane Victorino and Matt Stairs, both of whom hit two-run home runs in the eighth to put the Phillies ahead for good. Game 4 was the backbreaker last year, and this year's Game 4 looks to be the series fulcrum again.
This time around, however, things will be different. For one thing, we've got Randy Wolf going for us; Wolf was yanked early (after 3.2 IP, with the lead) in Game 1 of the NLDS, and hasn't pitched in 12 days. He may be rusty, but he'll be rested and ready to go deep; his 2.78 road ERA, fifth in the league, also bodes well. And even Philly fans love and respect Randy Wolf, even though he's a Dodger now.
For another thing, we've got karma on our side (not to mention Fox, who would love a Dodgers-Yankees World Series). And karma will take down reliable, trusted players just the same as anyone else in its wake. Matt Holliday? Bonk. Chase Utley? Bonk. The Phillies might have slept well last night, but the karma police will come, and that fridge-buzzing is about to become a detuned radio.
And finally, they've got Chan Ho Park on their this time around, unlike last year. That alone may be keeping our playoff odds at 33% for this series, even down 2-1 and playing the next two on the road (we were at 57% for the NLCS prior to last night's aberration).
We can strike out the "7" after tonight's game. We can bring the series back to Los Angeles. We can win this series. We can do it. I believe.
LET'S GO, DODGERS!
At-Game Recap: NLCS Game 2
While we Dodger fans lick our wounds following that 11-0 nail-biter last night in Game 3, I thought it would be appropriate to regale SoSG readers with tales of sweating to death while watching NLCS Game 2, which saw the Dodgers steal victory from the jaws of defeat, beating the Phillies 2-1 to even up the series (just like they are about to do today).
It was hot. The box score says 93 degrees, but with an unusual humidity and air that had all the circulation of Domino Magazine. And I know I've already mentioned this heat before, but unless you've made the Oregon Trail walk from Lot 1 up the hill to the Stadium, risking dehydration and dysentery along the way, you don't know how challenging getting to this game was. Ms. Sax and Sax's sister cursed mlb for its Yankees favortism, and I thought this game was going to get the hook before we even set foot on the reserved level.
How hot was it? Let's just say, it was so hot, that waiting in line at the reserved-level concession stands was almost not worth the effort, even to purchase beer. The Master Card rubber placemats had melted onto the metal counters:
...which was ridiculous, when you realized that they couldn't even process credit card transactions in the first place (due to system errors) (click for larger image):
Bonus of the year was finding out that our seats were in the shade. Jackpot! Ms. Sax decides not to kill Sax (that is, until she realizes how poor cell phone reception is in the Stadium, and how her blackberry battery is draining at rapid speed), and Sax's sister valiantly opts to stick it out. This was huge, by the way; my sister was really feeling ill, with whatever it was becoming exacerbated by the heat, and for a while I thought we were going to have to call it. My sister is a real gutty person, though, and stuck it out to the end (only vomiting post-game). Thanks, Sis!
The Backstreet Boys sang God Bless America (and I assume the national anthem, though I didn't get into the park in time to see it). It appears there's only four of these guys now, and they seem to have lost a lot of bass, but if this is them, then I've got to say, I don't think Justin Timberlake or Donnie Wahlberg sound like they've missed a step!
When Yoda came on DiamondVision, right about the time that Hong-Chih Kuo took the mound (to secure an inning-ending double play ball from Ben Francisco), I knew good things were in store.
The eighth inning was when it started to happen for the Dodgers. Casey Blake gets a leadoff single, and then Ronnie Belliard pushes a bunt past Chan Ho Park, who is toppling over like a sapling. Two on, none out, and Russell Martin comes to the plate to attempt to bunt--and misses all of his attempts. Okay, Martin, swing away instead...
Martin's tailor-made 5-4-3 double play goes awry when Chase Utley airmails a ball past Ryan Howard at first, allowing Martin to reach safely and Juan Pierre (pinch running for Blake) to score the tying run. How Utley could have missed Howard at first is unfathomable; that guy is enormous. But we take the run, and up comes Jim Thome to pinch hit for Kuo.
I've been pulling for Thome all year (at least, since he's become a Dodger), and I was really hoping that he could make the most of his PH appearance, both for the team and for himself. Thome was 1-for-11 coming down the homestretch of the season, but seemed to get back in a groove of late. Sure enough, he banged a base hit to right field that not only was clutch, but also wisely positioned to allow Martin to advance to third from first. What a veteran!
All that drama set up a revolving door of Phillies pitching changes, as well as a Rafael Furcal walk (yay!), a Matt Kemp K with the bases loaded (boo!), and finally, the fateful Andre Ethier bases-loaded walk that had him battle back from a 1-2 count to earn the free pass. The stadium was up:
...and even better than that, there was an old guy keeping score in the program (I love seeing this at the ballpark; it's such a throwback).
And Broxton came out to register a quick ninth and dispatch the Phillies. Cue up Randy Newman, because We Love LA (sorry, this isn't a very good video; you can barely hear the song until it gets to the bridge):
This was Sax's third LCS game and first NLCS victory. I credit Ms. Sax, as well as all the other Sons (Alex Cora, Delino, and Orel) for attending and bringing the Dodgers the positive vibe. Just seeing those two videos again gives me chills, and fires me up for tonight's game. Let's go, Dodgers!
Scoreboard Watching: Yankees @ Angels, 1p
Need something to distract you until 5:07 PT? Join us as the Angels and Yankees fight for the privilege of playing against the DodPhilgerlies in the World Series!
photo by Chris Carlson/AP
What Is Momentum?
It's been a wild and crazy postseason for the Dodgers.
They've beat up on aces, and they've been beat up by other aces...only to feast on the bullpen. They've held MVP sluggers in check, but they've been killed by a number-eight hitter. They've received a couple of gift errors and parlayed them into wins, and they've been three-hit into submission.
If the Dodgers ever had momentum, it was after sweeping the Cardinals in the NLDS. Yet they lost Game 1 of the NLCS. After their come-from-behind victory in Game 2, they got their asses kicked six ways to Sunday in Game 3. So maybe momentum only carries as far as the first inning of the next game.
Which brings us to tonight's matchup. The guy you want starting, Randy Wolf, is the team's steadiest, most consistent pitcher. But Mr. Reliable also gives up most of his runs in his first three innings of work. Which isn't exactly when you want to spot the Phillies a few runs.
The hangover from last night's game doesn't have to carry over to tonight's. And if Wolf can get off to a strong start, Game 5 will seem more like a new opportunity than an accident waiting to happen.
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Post-NLCS Game 3 Thread: Dodgers Lose a Squeaker
PHILLIES XI, DODGERS...WHAT'S ZERO IN ROMAN NUMERALS?
Good news! Scott Elbert, Chad Billingsley and Ramon Troncoso only allowed two runs tonight! Unfortunately, they were sandwiched by Hiroki Kuroda (1 1/3 IP, 6 ER, 40.50 NLCS ERA) and Ronald Belisario (1.0 IP, 3 ER). Not sure why Joe Torre kept Kuroda in the second inning to give up two additional runs after the Phillies smacked him around for four in the first, but it's a moot point.
Oh, and Cliff Lee? 8.0 IP, 3H, 10 Ks. And if you're the type to rub salt and orange juice in your wounds, former Dodgers Jayson Werth and Shane Victorino had a home run each, combining for five RBIs.
Pretty shitty, right? But think of it this way: If the Dodgers had scored as many runs as they had in Games 1 and 2 combined, they still would have lost. This one just wasn't meant to be. Stew for a few moments, then move on.
Help us, Randy Wolf, you're our only hope!
NLCS Game 3 Thread @ Cheesesteaks, 5p
Hiroki Kuroda (0-0, -.--) vs. Clifton Phifer Lee (0-0, -.--).
The Dodgers and 'Steaks take their competition for the ultimate prize to the cold, wet confines of Citizens Bank Park (while that other L.A. team is gladly trading freezing rain for sunshine after going down 2-0 to the Yankees).
Plan A for the Dodgers: Beat Cliff Lee, who was 14-13 with a 3.22 ERA during the regular season. Hmmm, Plan A might not be so easy. Plan B: Get into Philly's bullpen. After all, it worked in Game 2 (and almost in Game 1). But how many pitches will it take to knock out Lee?
Quite a few, as it turns out. In 24 of Lee's 34 starts this season, he threw over 100 pitches. Three times he threw 122 pitches, and once he threw 124. So will the Dodgers swing early or try to go deep into counts? Will they have a Plan C?
Kuroda hasn't pitched in a real game in nearly three weeks, but Joe Torre made a wise choice for the Dodgers' toughest start of the season. Kuroda combines the experience of a veteran with the toughness of, well, someone who took a nasty line drive to the head and came back stronger than before. It doesn't hurt that Kuroda was actually more effective on the road this season, going 6-3 in away games and 2-4 at Dodger Stadium.
So grab that poncho and melt that Cheez Whiz — we're going to be in Philadelphia for a few days.
GO DODGERS!
cheesesteak photo from Roadfood.com; other photos by Rob Carr/AP
Walk or Walkoff, Ethierzilla Will Win
original Ethier photo by Juan Ocampo/Dodgers
At-Game Recap: NLCS Game 1 (Part 2)--Manny Crushes A Two-Run HR
I had not sat in Mannywood all year until NLCS Game 1. And the mood was CRAZED for most of the game, particularly when Manny Ramirez hit this two-run home run to bring the Dodgers back to a one-run game.
The Dodgers ended up losing the opening game of the NLCS 8-6, but this video from the crowd should give you an idea of how intense the atmosphere was at the Stadium for this game. Wow. Keep it up, Manny!
Earlier: Part 1
Caption Contest
Caption these dedicated folks at the Sunset Gate of Dodger Stadium before Friday's game:
UPDATE: Orlando Zepeda says it with pixels:
photo by Orel/SoSG
Saturday, October 17, 2009
Scoreboard Watching: ALCS Game 2, Angels @ Yankees, 5p
We hope you enjoyed "Don't Stop Believing" Day at SoSG!
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