Post-Game 95 Thread: Superdry? Superbad.

PADRES 6, DODGERS 3

Look, dodgers.com will have you summarize it as "Dodgers kept off-balance by Padres rookie", but the truth of the matter is, Dan Haren was just horrible, yet again. In his shortest outing of the season, Haren went only 4.0 IP and was removed after seeing two more runs cross in the fifth inning without registering an out. 6 H, 4 ER, and 2 BB later (albeit with 4Ks), Donnie gave Haren the early hook hoping we could still salvage this game.

Wrong. The Dodgers wasted opportunities, demonstrably so when Matt Kemp (who singled in the Dodgers' first run of the game, in the first inning) struck out in the bottom of the fifth with two on and two out, breaking his bat over his knee in anger afterward. Kemp could have taken said bat and broken it over Yasiel Puig's helmet after the bottom of the seventh, when Puig was thrown out at third for the final out of the inning on Adrian Gonzalez' fly ball to left (Dee Gordon scored from third, but Puig was thrown out inexplicably trying to advance from second).

Oh, and with two on and none out in the bottom of the eighth, Juan Uribe and Miguel Rojas both struck out (both went 0-for-4 in the game); A.J. Ellis worked a walk but Carl Crawford (0-for-2 tonight) grounded 6-4 to end the inning. Bad, bad, bad.

Actually, superbad, as the Dodgers' loss to the Padres and Superdry Jesse Hahn (who notched his fifth win of the year), coupled with the Giants' win over the Diamondbacks, means that we're once again in a tie for first place. With two games to go before the All-Star break, the Dodgers are limping to the halfway point. I need that beer.

Game 95 Thread: July 11 vs. Padres, 7p

Dan Haren (8-5, 4.06) vs. Jesse Hahn (4-2, 2.34).

In his last outing, Haren was all wet. Following up a 7.0 IP, one-hit wonder against Cleveland, Haren went out there July 5 at Coors Field and shit the bed, yielding 10 H and 8 ER over 5.1 IP. Haren's ERA continues to steadily rise this year, but this outing alone accelerated this rising trend by almost 0.50 runs, his biggest game-to-game increase since early April. This does not give us a lot of reassurance.

Meanwhile, Hahn's ERA is going in the opposite direction: downward. Hahn made his major league debut this year on June 3, and the Pirates shellacked him: 3.2 IP with 6 H and 4 ER, giving him an ERA of 9.82. But four consecutive winning starts later, Hahn's ERA sat at 1.95, with his last outing (7.0 IP, 3 ER in a loss to the Giants) showing a slight blip back upward. Which means Hahn has four wins in his last five starts (and no NDs across six starts). So if Haren is wet, will Hahn be super-dry tonight?

At the very least, we need to make sure this isn't a complete game from the Padres' starter. Not aiming very high, I know. But the thought of a smug Hahn solo would be too much to bear.

Marvel Puzzle Quest: A Look Behind The Scenes

For about a month now, a bunch of us Sons have been addicted to Marvel Puzzle Quest, available as an app on the iTunes store. We've created a small group of us (an "alliance") that involves four Sons, an extra guy, and SoSG regular QuadSevens. You'll be happy to know that our alliance is trucking along pretty well in the game (and if any SoSG regular wants to join please drop a comment in this post; not sure if we have the money right now but we may be able to scrounge some up).

I've already dropped $15 on this "free-to-play" app: $10 to expand my roster of characters, and $5 to expand the alliance to include a sixth member. I think AC has spent at least $10 as well.

The game is pretty well-designed with retention mechanisms to keep coming back. And in goofing around on the net, I found a series of articles by the Demiurge CEO, who described their path from a game developer to a mobile free-to-play developer, and how they're constantly modifying this game in order to keep people engaged. It's pretty fascinating how analytic it all is behind the scenes; sort of like Moneyball, for apps.

One thing our alliance has noticed is that leaderboards do not seem to be unique. In other words, there have been a couple of us working iwthin the same alliance who have finished in the "top 10" individually, but we've noticed that we don't see our other alliance members' names in the top rankings. Demiurge seems to acknowledge that there are actually multiple leaderboards being used by their servers:

Leaderboards: When players join an event, they’re assigned to a leaderboard. These leaderboards are queried by the game engine to show player rankings and hand our rewards.

Rewards: Leaderboard placement is used to send players rewards during the events and at their conclusion. We follow the now-standard structure for our events. Players engage with the event and earn points that enable them to earn “progression rewards.” At the end of an event, players receive a set of “placement rewards” based on their ranking relative to other players on their leaderboard.

Interesting. But these guys have it down. Here's some notes on team-ups, and how they use them to seed future character purchases:

Certain missions called “team-ups” offer players a “loaner” version of a new character. These missions give us a chance to show off how fun it is to play with a particular character. By clearly presenting the value to the player, we hope they’ll spend some of their currency to purchase that character to have for future missions.

These missions also enable us to have a soft gate on progress. By giving the player a low-level version of the character, we make the mission more challenging unless they have their own, high-level version of the character to swap in. Players can overcome these challenges by having a high-level version of other characters or, more easily, by having a high level version of the team-up character.

And on alliances, it's a pretty thoughtful revenue-driving mechanism. Too bad we didn't get in earlier, when it was less costly to make huge alliances (which are now dominating the game):

The goal of alliances

While this series focuses on ARPDAU (average revenue per daily active user), the reason Marvel Puzzle Quest is successful is that our game does a good job of encouraging spending over a very long period of time. We like it that way — rather than fostering an ecosystem of whale-centric burst spending, we covert players steadily. We believe we’re providing a valuable service to our players, and they reciprocate by throwing us a few bucks every week. The data bears this out — about 8 percent of our players in March spent money in the game, and a healthy portion of our revenue is coming from players who started playing way back in October.

At the same time, our position in the market wasn’t defensible. We want players to be enjoying Marvel Puzzle Quest for a year after they started playing, but we built a game that achieved stickiness because it was “addictive”. There’s plenty of other “addictive” games out there. If we’re going to build truly long-term value, we need other reasons for people to keep playing and social connections are one of the best tools we have as developers.

As you can see, user acquisition remains a challenge for us as much as everyone else in mobile. You might think the Marvel license alone would peg us in the top-100 most-downloaded games, but there are many Marvel games out there. Aside from a simple Facebook sharing mechanic, we had no in-game systems for players to ask their friends to start playing.

Anyway, it's a good read. I'm sure I'll stay addicted to this for a little while longer. It's pretty good fun.

The whole eight-part series can be accessed here.

Saxon: Kershaw Should Start 2014 ASG

It's not going to happen.

Not that Kershaw doesn't deserve it, that's for sure. But with the Cardinals' Mike Metheny doing the managing the 2014 NL All-Star team, it's highly unlikely that Metheny will select Kershaw to start over Adam Wainwright, the Cardinals' own ace. But ESPN.com's Mark Saxon indicated, Kershaw's resume is more than solid enough to make him a very worthy starter.

While Kershaw's streak of 41 consecutive scoreless innings came to an end with Chase Headley's sixth-inning home run in the Dodgers' 2-1 win over the San Diego Padres on Thursday night, Kershaw said he couldn't care less about the streak. He pitched like it, too, mowing down the Padres for three more innings to cap off the complete-game three-hitter, adorned with 11 strikeouts. The streak ended. The mastery didn't.

And, coincidentally, just after the streak ended, Kershaw qualified for the NL ERA title by completing the sixth inning.

So, with Kershaw having polished off the pre-All-Star break portion of his season with an 8-0 run in which he had a 0.74 ERA, here's where he stands: He leads the league in ERA and WHIP and in strikeout-to-walk ratio (9.58) by the width of the Mississippi (Stephen Strasburg is next at 5.83).

In this case, I will admit, Matheny has plenty of cover to name Wainwright for the honor. Wainwright has made four more starts (remember, Kershaw missed more than a month because of a strained muscle in his back), piled up 35 more innings, had as many wins (11) and has a 1.79 ERA, just .01 higher than Kershaw's.

"Whatever Mike decides is fine with me," Kershaw said. "I'm just happy to get to be going and getting to go with three teammates is pretty cool."

Kershaw might say he doesn't care about starting Tuesday's game, but that might be a bit of white lie. It's strictly an honorific, but it's one of those things that stays on your resume the rest of your life. It's another check to mark off. He has the no-hitter. He has the two Cy Youngs. He's 26 and the Dodgers seem to be intent on winning for a while, so he should get enough shots at a World Series ring.

As stiff as the competition is and small as the three-month sample is, there's no guarantee he'll ever start an All-Star Game. Sandy Koufax started only one, in 1966.

I'm struck by how Kershaw is one hell of a ferocious competitor, yet he's also poised and balanced and politically appropriate with the press, when baited for the obvious answer. And at 26, no less!

Let's just win the World Series this year so we won't have this dilemma next year....

Post-Game 94 Thread: Mugs Delayed, Streak Broken, Dodgers Win Anyway

Delayed Hello Kitty travel mugs (artist's rendition).

DODGERS 2, PADRES 1

It wasn't the greatest of nights at Dodger Stadium, both off and on the field. Those cool Hello Kitty travel mugs? Delayed. Clayton Kershaw's scoreless streak? Broken. As even a blind squirrel finds a nut, Chase Headley hit a solo home run off Kershaw in the sixth to end Kershaw's amazing scoreless streak at 41 innings. Only Orel's 59 and Drysdale's 58 are better in Dodger history.

But Kershaw was otherwise untouchable, allowing only three hits and striking out 11 for a complete game victory made possible with RBIs from SVS and AGon. The Giants lost again, so the Dodgers reclaim their one-game division lead. And if that qualifies as a bad day at Dodger Stadium, we'll take it.

On The Giants' Struggles

Last night, I'm reading ESPN.com and I see that the "Highlight of the Night" is the Giants' 5-2 win over the A's. Baseball Tonight accompanied the post with a video, How do the Giants turn it around? (which I didn't watch, as I didn't want to be nauseated).

And sure, they beat the best team in baseball on one night, but the Giants still dropped two to Oakland before that. And they're 8-19 over their past 27, which has helped the Dodgers claw back into first place. With the Giants' 5-2 win, and the Dodgers' second loss in Detroit, the Dodgers and Giants were tied for first again. And here's where the Giants would break out again, right?

Part 1: David Schoenfield (also of ESPN), recapped the game and was pretty guarded:

1. How good are the Giants? Not as good as their 42-21 start and not as bad as they've been the past month. They're probably about where they should be, on pace for 89 wins. That's about where most people had them projected before the season.

2. Sure, but they lost Angel Pagan on June 15. Right about when the slide started. No coincidence, right? His injury has hurt but one guy doesn't make a lineup. Pagan was having a nice season -- .307/.356/.411 -- but that's not exactly Willie Mays. It is true, however, that Giants center fielders have been a disaster since Pagan went down, hitting .145/.193/.205 since June 15 entering Wednesday's game.

A bigger factor for the offense has been the decline in home runs. Through June 8, they were second in the National League and fourth in the majors with 69 home runs, a great pace for a team that was next-to-last in home runs in the NL in 2013 and last in 2012.

Since June 9, however, the Giants have hit 14 home runs -- the lowest total in the majors. Pence homered on Wednesday. They need more of that.

3. OK, what's been wrong with Cain? I'm not sure anything is wrong. I've been going through his numbers, slicing and dicing and digging deep and there's nothing obvious that explains why he had a 2.93 ERA from 2009 through 2012 and 4.06 the past two seasons. His fastball velocity is the same. Things like swing-and-miss rate and strike percentage and batting average on balls in play are all stable.

But his walk rate is up slightly, especially this year, and he's given up a few more home runs (his home run per fly ball rate is up, although his actual rate of fly balls has been lower the past two seasons than before). That's enough to raise that ERA just a bit.

Why that's happening, I'm not sure. Maybe he's falling behind a little more often. Early last season, he was certainly grooving a few many pitches. This year, he has missed a few starts and twice landed on the disabled list -- first, with a cut on his right index finger suffered while cutting a sandwich and then a hamstring pull. So that could have had an effect. Overall, however, I see no reason why Cain can't be better the rest of the season.

4. What about the rest of the rotation? That's why Cain really needs to step it up. The rotation was bad last year and even this year it's not as good as its reputation. Look, Madison Bumgarner is a terrific pitcher, but he's not Clayton Kershaw and I'd be hard-pressed to say he's better than Zack Greinke. Tim Lincecum is pretty good against the Padres and pretty good at home, but has a 5.82 ERA on the road. Tim Hudson was the savior the first two months and Ryan Vogelsong has been much better than last season. Entering Wednesday, the Giants ranked 21st in starters' WAR via FanGraphs.

Part 2: Oh yeah, and then the funny thing about baseball is, everything can shift from day to day. Yesterday, the Giants were going to turn things around. Today's result: Oakland 6, SF 1. Dodgers are back to being alone in first, pending tonight's game vs. San Diego.

(Though the Giants do have the Diamondbacks this weekend, which is probably favorable for SF.)

Game 94 Thread: July 10 vs. Padres, 7p

First fan through the gates gets 40,000 of these Hello Kitty travel mugs. Or maybe it's the other way around.

Odrisamer Despaigne (pronounced O-DREE-SA-MEHR DES-PAWN-NYAY) (2-0, 0.92) vs. Clayton Kershaw (pronounced CLAY-TON KER-SHAW) (10-2, 1.85).

It's The Kid versus a kid tonight, as grizzled vet Kershaw (age: 26) brings his two Cy Youngs and his current 36-inning scoreless streak against the rookie Despaigne (age: 27), the Padres' Cuban import who's making the fourth start of his career.

The Dodgers are licking their wounds after a painful two-game sweep by the Tigers, while the Padres stack up like this:

• runs: 269 (30th overall)
  
• batting average: .215 (30th overall)
  
• on-base percentage: .275 (30th overall)
  
• slugging percentage: .337 (30th overall)
  

Piece of cake, right? Except the Pads always play the Dodgers tough (Dodgers are 4-2 against them so far this year). After that Verlander game, we know better than to take anything for granted.

Carl Crawford, The $69M Benchwarmer

Lots of nuggets in Bill Shaikin's article on Carl Crawford's imminent return to the Dodgers from the DL. First, the fact that Dodger manager Don Mattingly seems to have want to have dealt with the four-outfielder dilemma by...letting nature take its course, rather than handling the situation:

Crawford could be activated as soon as Thursday, which could leave Manager Don Mattingly with an unhappy bench player. Mattingly said he would speak with Crawford about his role, but said he is “not really planning any big changes” and noted the Dodgers had ascended to first place in the National League West with a set outfield. San Francisco moved percentage points ahead Wednesday night.

"Everybody is happier," Mattingly said. "They don't have to come to the ballpark looking for the lineup card."

The Dodgers were 29-24 (.547) when Crawford went on the disabled list. They are 22-18 (.550) since then, including 19-11 (.633) in the last 30 games.

Mattingly said Crawford bears no blame for the situation.

"Carl happened to be the one who got hurt," Mattingly said.

That's right! Why make decisions, when you can just wait for tendons to pop and decisions to be made for you!

But what about options? That trade deadline is coming up, so surely we can dish the unwanted fourth outfielder off, right?

Crawford, 32, a four-time All-Star, considers himself an everyday player, and the Dodgers would not be opposed to accommodating him with a trade. Scott Van Slyke has proven himself as a capable fourth outfielder, and top prospect Joc Pederson returned Wednesday from a separated shoulder at triple-A Albuquerque.

However, if Crawford were traded at the July 31 deadline, he would have $69 million left on his contract — $6.75 million for the last two months of this season, and $62.25 million through 2017.

$69M? Holy smokes, that's a lot of money. Okay, so maybe not. Well, let's just use Crawford as a pinch hitter then. Sure, he's expensive, but what could possibly go wrong?

In 35 career at-bats as a pinch-hitter, he is batting .114.

Oh.

Star Wars Night, Episode VI: August 15

Back, it is! For the sixth year, the Dodgers are holding Star Wars Night. From Dodgers.com:

Join the Dodgers for Star Wars Night on Friday, August 15th. Each ticket package includes a ticket in the All-You-Can-Eat Right Field Pavilion and a voucher redeemable for a Star Wars t-shirt. Stay after the game for Friday Night Fireworks themed to Star Wars.

Follow the above link to buy tickets, which are $40 each. Now that's a deal!

And because you were wondering, here's a history of Dodgers Star Wars Night T-shirts:

Year One (2009).

Year Two (2010).

Year Three (2011).

Year Four (2012).

Year Five (2013).

Rally Bus Needs Riders

From a BZAPR press release:

GET ON BOARD: The Dodgers are supporting another alternative way for fans to get to the stadium—the Rally Bus. It will run during the next two homestands, a four-game series with the Padres Thursday through Sunday and an eight-game homestand featuring the Braves, Cubs and Angels July 29-Aug. 5, and will offer round-trip travel from communities throughout Southern California. For Rally Bus departure locations, pricing and schedules, call 855-725-5928 or visit www.dodgers.majorleaguebus.com

Poking around the site reveals these details:

• They're looking for a minimum of 25 people per bus. It's unclear whether each bus services multiple cities.
  
• Cities served: Anaheim, Burbank, Carson, City of Commerce, Duarte, Glendale, Long Beach, Monterey Park, Ontario, Pasadena, Santa Fe Springs, Santa Monica, Sherman Oaks, South Los Angeles, Sun Valley, Thousand Oaks, West Covina, Westwood, Woodland Hills.
  
• Cost is $30 per person.
  

Curious to see if this will take off. If you try it, let us know!

Post-Game 93 Thread: Detroit Rock Shitty

(H/T to @scott_fite for the video idea.)
TIGERS 4, DODGERS 1

Dodgers lose again and I make a new friend. Fun day!

@sosgsosg douchebags like you are exactly why I don't go to Dodgers games-you're probably one of those fuckers who starts shit in the stands

— Goosed Loonies (@sabourin91) July 9, 2014

Miguel Rojas hit his first career home run, but whatever. Let's forget this stupid series ever happened. Back home tomorrow to hopefully beat up on the Padres for four games.

And I didn't get any doughnuts, either.

Game 93 Thread: July 9 @ Tigers, 10a

Mmmm...Tiger Tails.
Zack Greinke (11-4, 2.66) vs. Max Scherzer (10-3, 3.47)

Breakfast baseball! Again! So, chow down on some Tiger Tails from Donut Man! Zack Greinke goes for a dozen wins. Hopefully, he can find holes in the Tigers' swings.

There's no way they fritter away a five-run lead again, right? Our hopes are raised for an old-fashioned offensive outburst.

Can the Dodgers earn a split, or does a cruller fate await?

SoSG Goes to College

Sure, our audience includes some pretty smart folks, but who thought it would come to this? We received this message from a bona-fide .edu address:

I teach freshman composition in college, and I've used your rewrite of Ashley Fox's ESPN article for years to show my students some basic examples of things to look for in their own papers. I am happy to say that this has proved very effective, as they tend to take what you've done and go to the next level of editing. I've been asked to create an online module about Peer Review, and I will be hyperlinking one of the pages to this article, as I feel it demonstrates worthy techniques and you explain what you are doing in a way that freshman can understand.

I appreciate that you did this rewrite. It is hard to find examples of this type of editing in popular culture, and sports journalism is something that my students can easily relate to. Thank you for taking good writing seriously.

Post-Game 92 Thread: Dodgers Get The Brazilian Treatment

TIGERS 14, DODGERS 5

In a game I admittedly didn't see one iota of, I may be the best qualified to provide a succinct summary, because anyone who actually saw the debacle must surely be blinded:

Waxed.

Dodgers bats teed off early against a recently-struggling Justin Verlander, taking a 5-0 first inning lead. That didn't last long as the Tigers roared back for five runs in the second. Ryu could never settle down and the German team began pouring in the goals seemingly at will. I might have mixed up my sports reports but you get the picture. Let's hide this one away and pretend it never happened.

Game 92 Thread: July 8 @ Tigers, 4p

I think she's saying "HanRam!" He's today's DH!
Hyun-Jin Ryu (9-4, 3.08) vs. Justin Verlander (7-7, 4.71)

The Dodgers have never faced Justin Verlander until today. In several series over the last few years, they've always just missed him. I guess they couldn't avoid him forever, but at least they're getting him when he's at his most un-Verlander-like (from a record and ERA standpoint, anyway).

And since they're facing Verlander, that gives us a reason to post an image of his sometimes girlfriend Kate Upton. (Though, do we really NEED a reason?) That's right, Justin! We're using your girl's boobs as our lucky Game Thread boobs! What're ya gonna do about it?!

Please don't say, "Throw a no-hitter."
Please don't say, "Throw a no-hitter."
Please don't say, "Throw a no-hitter."

A Look Back: Szymborski Calls The NL West To SF (June 13, 2014)

Hindsight is a wonderful thing, especially when one unearths articles like this one, which called the 9.5-game lead for the Giants all but insurmountable in the NL West (link insider only). If nothing else, it reminds us how quickly fates can change...and how foolish it is to bet on the Giants:

With a payroll of $235 million on Opening Day, the Los Angeles Dodgers weren't a team put together for the purpose of finishing second in their division. But that's just where they stand in the National League West on Friday, with the San Francisco Giants having opened up a 8 1/2-game lead. While that might not sound like an insurmountable gap to make up, history suggests the 2014 NL West is almost certainly going to be taken by the men in orange and black, not Dodger blue.

While there have always been teams that have blown significant leads in the standings, this actually happens less often than most people believe. We root for the underdogs, after all, which is why so many of our sports movies feature storylines with plucky losers catching the antagonists. The Dodgers didn't enter the season as the underdog -- the team would be even more frighteningly expensive if it was expected to be a .500 team -- but history suggests that leads like the Giants have now are usually safe.

Just to get a quick look at the overwhelming odds in San Francisco's favor, I tallied the June 13 standings in every year of the divisional era. Only 27 teams had a division lead of six games or greater, and of those 27 teams, only three ended up losing that lead. If closing a gap of this magnitude was easy, history wouldn't remember the 1969 Mets (Miracle Mets), the 1978 Yankees (the Bucky Dent year) or the 2003 Mariners collapse so vividly. (The Mariners' collapse isn't as famous as the other two, but Nate Silver ranked it the fourth-worst collapse in MLB history back in 2007.)

If you're keeping count, the division leaders blew their leads only 11 percent of the time (3 of 27), not exactly promising odds for the Dodgers on this Friday the 13th. Those are similar odds to those of a named character surviving the movie "Friday the 13th."

To be more precise on the Giants' division chances at this point, I consulted the ZiPS projection system, which is equipped to run updated divisional/playoff probabilities at any point in the season. ZiPS comes up with a similar estimation of the playoff probability of the Giants, estimating an 88.7 percent chance that they finish the season leading the NL West.

What should be especially concerning for Dodger fans -- and especially good news for Giants fans -- is that ZiPS sees the Giants as prohibitive favorites in the division now, despite not even thinking the Giants are as good a team as the Dodgers. ZiPS sees significant regressions ahead for Michael Morse, Angel Pagan, Hunter Pence and Brandon Crawford, but their early-season performances are all "in the bag," so to speak. In other words, ZiPS sees the Dodgers as having just a 1-in-10 shot of overtaking the Giants even though L.A. is a better team on paper.

The reason the Dodgers' odds are so slim is that at this point in the season, to make up a 8 1/2-game deficit, they need to be the equivalent of 14 games better over 162 games than the first-place team, and even an optimistic Dodgers fan can't think they are that much better than their rival.

The Dodgers had overtaken the Giants for first place in the NL West on June 30, 2014.

Chatograph™ with Steve Garvey this Saturday

What is a Chatograph™? According to their website:

1) Check the calendar to see when your favorite celebrity is appearing
2) Select the player, add to your cart, and enter your question/comment
3) Have your interaction blasted across social media
4) Receive your personal autographed CHATOGRAPH™ certificate via mail.

And guess which favorite celebrity is doing an appearance this Saturday? That's right, Steve Garvey himself. As of this writing, Dad's John Hancock can be had for an eminently reasonable $14.99. Any takers?

Self-Service Beer Machines at Target Field

OMG.

We need this...I need this.

Get on it, Dodgers!

Image: Deadspin

Domingo Ayala Beisbol Academy

Some off day fun. These videos are up on YouTube, one with our All-Star Clayton Kershaw. I find the other videos funnier. Enjoy!

How to hit a home run.

How to take a walk (Big Papi style).

Happy Easter (Egg), Yasiel Puig

Yasiel Puig showed up in Deadspin recently as the subject matter of a MLB14 The Show easter egg...being shown up by an umpire on how to properly celebrate a home run!:

Here's a hidden gem from this year's edition of MLB The Show—spotted by our old buddy Owen Good—that players can unlock by holding onto the ball on the mound and leaving the game unpaused for more than 30 seconds.