Friday, October 03, 2008

Andruw Jones' Post-Season Dream

From Baseball Cupcakes:

Since baseball is our life and this is a baseball cupcake blog, we decided to have an informal baseball cupcake playoff to see just how these teams fare in cupcake form.

The Kids Still Don't Get Respect

It is nice of mlb.com to promote players that have blogs. But it would be even better if they paired the correct player picture with the correct player name and blog. Unless my eyes deceive me, Andre Ethier looks a lot like James Loney. That's like putting a picture of Woody Woodpecker in the place of Eric Karros.

Caption Contest

"We swear! There's a rat this big in the ivy!"


photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images

Attention, World: Not All Dodger Fans Are This Douchey

photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images

Piniella Throws Fukudome Under Bus

Disappointed at an 0-for-8 performance in the NLDS, Cubs manager Lou Piniella publicly blasted Cubs RF Kosuke Fukudome, benching him for Game 3 if not beyond.

Cubs manager Lou Piniella has all but written off right fielder Kosuke Fukudome for the rest of the playoffs and maybe longer.

"From now on, I don't want to hear about Fukudome anymore as far as whether he's going to play or not," Piniella bellowed after Thursday night's 10-3 loss to the Dodgers in which Fukudome went 0-for-4, making him 0-for-8 in the National League division series.

"I'm going to play Reed Johnson or somebody else, and that's the end of that story. The kid is struggling, and there's no sense of sending him out there anymore."

Before the game, Piniella was asked about Fukudome

"It's a mystery," Piniella said. "I don't have explanations for it. I really don't. What does he say? You all talk to him?"

After a strong first two months of the season, Fukudome struggled badly in the second half, hitting .217 after the all-star break.

"It's been a long time," Piniella said. "I've had as much patience with him as I've had with anybody I've ever managed. We've played him. We've moved him around in the lineup with the thought of, 'Well, this'll get him going. This'll get him going. This'll get him going.'

"It's been a struggle for this young man. I feel for him. He's a good young man, and he plays hard, and he wants to do well."

And from the Trib:

"Look, we need offense," Piniella said before the game. "He's swinging the bat well, I recognize that. We get to L.A., the weather is a little warmer, it'll be a few more days [of rest] for DeRosa, and [playing Fontenot] is certainly a viable option. Right now Fontenot is our best bat coming off the bench."

Fukudome, whom Piniella said in his postgame comments likely would not start in Game 3, went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts in the Cubs' 10-3 loss. Fontenot grounded out as a pinch-hitter in the eighth.

Look, .217 in the second half is not good, to be sure, and 0-for-8 is also not good. But let's consider how the other Cubs mainstays have performed after two games of play:

  • Soriano, in the critical leadoff spot: 1-for-9 with no runs;
  • Lee, in the three hole, 3-for-7, the best of the bunch;
  • Ramirez, in cleanup, 2-for-8 with no RBI;
  • Soto, RoY candidate, 1-for-7;
  • Theriot, in the two-hole for Game 2, went 0-for 4 and is 2-for-8 overall.

The point being, Fukudome hasn't been outstanding, but really neither has anyone else in the lineup short of Derrek Lee. And if Fukudome was struggling down the stretch of the regular season, shouldn't it be on Piniella's head not to play him in the playoffs?

What's more, ripping him one publicly, down 2-0 in the NLDS, doesn't seem like the best strategy to help him overcome any psychological impediments and "get back in the game." Fukudome is in his first year of a four-year, $48M deal, so whether there's one more game or many more games left in the Cubs' season, he'll likely be back next year. Time, and three more years, will tell whether Lou is pushing the right buttons here.

Video from the Chicago Cubs Press Conference (10/2/08)

Earlier:

Thursday, October 02, 2008

Panic, Chicago Fans; You're No Longer in Control of the Series

***

Cubs not looking much like the NL's best team (Dayn Perry, FOXSports.com)

A tragedy of errors (Rick Telander, Chicago Sun-Times)

Piniella in a slump, too (Chris De Luca, Chicago Sun-Times)

Cubs feel pressure wherever they turn (Carol Slezak, Chicago Sun-Times)

Do-or-die turns into slow death for Cubs (Mike Downey, Chicago Tribune)

***

I like the Cubs—when they're not playing the Dodgers. So it's nothing personal when I say we have to go for the kill on Saturday. No mercy!

***

Earlier: Calm Down, Chicago Fans; You're Still In Control Of The Series

UPDATE:

Everybody pile on!

Bad night has Cubs staring at another wasted year (Gene Wojciechowski, ESPN.com)

Cubs doomed not by curses, but themselves (Jim Caple, ESPN.com)

Cubs' postseason run has fallen well short of expectations (Danny Knobler, CBSSports.com)

Wretched at Wrigley (Jeff Passan, Yahoo! Sports)

UPDATE:

Even the Onion is getting in on the act!
God Savoring Vast Array Of Cubs-Cursing Options

Post-NLDS Game 2 Thread: Billingsley No Longer Baseball's Best-Kept Secret

DODGERS 10, CUBS 3

top: Steve Green/Getty Images
bottom: AP photo

Is This Heaven?

UPDATE:

Matt Kemp gets in on the ivy action:

Ramirez, Kemp: AP photos

NLDS Game 2 Thread: Oct 2 @ Cubs, 6:30p

Chad Billingsley (0-0, -.--) vs. Big Z (0-0, -.--).

Comments: Oh, that crazy Nostradamus. I'm generally pretty wary of handing the floor over to him, as he can sometimes be a loose cannon. But he really insisted this time, and since he had good tidings to portend, I decided to let him have his say. Be warned though, he's been drinking pretty heavily and listening to The Beastie Boys almost constantly. But there you have it, straight from the mouth of everyone's favorite French prophet (who's apparently aligned with Anni-Frid) - Les Dodgers en quatre!

Why Stop At Two Saves for Maddux

Steve Gilbert from mlb.com is using some really curious math in his article, "Maddux earns a double save for LA," specifically utilizing an interesting perspective on Greg Maddux's ninth-inning relief performance last night:

CHICAGO -- Greg Maddux picked up a save on Wednesday night in Game 1 of the National League Division Series.

Not the kind of save that's reflected in the box score, but one that is registered with his teammates and manager.

Maddux tossed a scoreless ninth in the Dodgers' 7-2 win over the Cubs, and in the process, he saved Los Angeles manager Joe Torre from having to go to closer Takashi Saito, who was on the disabled list from July 18 to Sept. 13 with a partially torn ligament in his elbow.

"It was huge," Torre said of Maddux's outing, "because we only used Saito once back-to-back since we brought him off the DL, so it just gave us an opportunity to save him."

So let me get this straight. Maddux didn't get credit for a statistical save, having entered the ninth with a 7-2 lead. But he did "save" the Dodgers' use of Takashi Saito. Okay, so count that as "save" #1, dubious as this may be.

Where the hell is this save #2 that you mention in the article's headline?

And since we're at it, why stop at two saves (even if you only mention one)? How about the fact that Maddux "saved" the Dodgers from using Joe Beimel, James McDonald, and Chan Ho Park last night (three more "saves" right there!)? Or the fact that he "saved" us from having the Cubs tie the score, which may have prevented Juan Pierre from getting a late-game at bat (one more "save"!)? Or how about Maddux's relief appearance being so unusual that it probably gave the tbs broadcasting team something else to talk about in the final frame (two "saves" there; one each for Dick Stockton and Tony Gwynn)?

Save me. Please.

NLDS Game 1 Haiku: Ode To MLB.com Gameday

James Loney grand slam
"In play, run(s)" freezes on screen
A torturous wait

Introducing: The Pantheon of Post-1988 Dodger Playoff Win Heroes

It's a small museum right now, but we're looking to add on a couple of exhibits soon.

Thank you, James Loney, for vanquishing the loneliness of Jose Lima!

Thank you, Derek Lowe, for outpitching your opponent on the road, and not getting flustered when down by two runs!

GO DODGERS!

Calm Down, Chicago Fans; You're Still In Control Of The Series

As expected, last night's 7-2 Dodgers victory exhumed all the ghosts of seasons past for beleaguered Chicago Cubs fans.

The Chicago Tribune, as expected, leads the way in clearing the path to the apocalypse, with "Curse removal backfires on Cubs" and "Now you're two games from 101 years" and former LA Times columnist Mike Downey's "In Game 1, it's just Cubs being Cubs." Said Downey:

Bringing a feeling of dread and dejection back to Wrigley Field, which is world-famous for it, the Cubs lost to the Los Angeles Dodgers, 7-2, Wednesday night to accept their seventh postseason whipping in a row.

What did you expect? They are just Cubs being Cubs.

Or should we be surprised that good old, reliable Ryan Dempster suddenly would turn into Wild Thing?

Or that a rowdy Wrigley crowd by evening's end would be as silent as midnight at the Lincoln Park Zoo?

Raise the "L" flag.

ESPN.com has a simulation team running the projections to find that, according to their math, the Dodgers will upset the Cubs this series. Fox Sports, whose main page says "Time To Worry," has a column explaining that the Cubs' hole is bigger than it looks. SI.com's Tom Verducci says the Cubs are already in trouble:

Sometimes a series is not about the better team or the hotter team. It's about matchups. And the Dodgers present a headache of a matchup for the Cubs. "We're going to see right-handed pitching galore," Cubs manager Lou Piniella said. "We're going to need our left-hand hitters to do something."

Los Angeles is loaded with power right-handers in its rotation and bullpen, and Chicago is loaded with right-handers in its lineup. To understand the effect of that matchup all you needed to see was Alfonso Soriano waving at slider after slider breaking off the plate in Game 1. He can prepare himself for the same diet all week.

The Cubs may have led the league in runs, but they hit .238 during the season against the Dodgers. And if Piniella is thinking his left-handed hitters will pick up the slack, well, Kosuke Fukudome and Jim Edmonds aren't exactly the cavalry riding in to the rescue. Piniella's hottest left-handed stick is Mike Fontenot. Piniella may have to start Fontenot at second base in Game 2 and move Mark DeRosa from second base to right field, even if it means compromising his defense by putting Fukudome on the bench.

But here's the thing, Cub fans: it's only one game. And tonight, you've got ace Carlos Zambrano on the mound, only three starts removed from a masterful no-hitter, versus our young Chad Billingsley, who can get rattled. Accuscore has the probability of Cubs win in Game 2 at 69%, the highest probability in any of tonight's divisional series games.

Last night's game stole home-field advantage for the Dodgers based on one lucky swing from James Loney, who is not known to be an opposite-field home run hitter. I love Loney, but given the last Dodgers playoff grand salami was the first in over 30 years, it's safe to say it won't happen again. Nor will Alfonso Soriano go 0-for-5 and Kosuke Fukudome go 0-for-4 at the top of the Cubs' lineup. Dodger SS Rafael Furcal may have turned a couple of DPs last night, but his 0-for-3 performance and less-than-fluid movement demonstrate that he's not fully back yet (as to be expected).

A Cubs win tonight splits the series as it heads back to Los Angeles, in which case the Cubs are still in control. The Dodgers have an awful road record, which will likely be evidenced tonight against the #1 seed in the National League, with 13 more wins this season than the Dodgers (over 15% more wins).

Take a deep breath, Cub fans.

Wednesday, October 01, 2008

Manny Ramirez Should Join Tomorrow's VP Debate

...as long as it doesn't interfere with playing in Game 2, that is. I mean, looking at the quotes from the postgame news conference, I really can't think of anyone else who can be that naturally magnanimous and sincere when describing unbelievable and heroic situations, like his golf-swing-on-ball-in-dirt-turned-inexplicable-home-run at bat in today's game. Consider these answers, and remember that this is taking place at a post-game press conference, in a room full of Chicago media:

Q: There were a couple times that you fell behind in counts and the at bats kind of went on. Did you feel like they were nibbling you? Is that just taking a good at bat? Do you feel like they were trying to avoid giving you something to hit?

MANNY RAMIREZ: Well, in that situation I ain't thinking about nothing. I'm just trying to get ready for every pitch. He did make a great pitch. You've got to give him credit. But I don't know how I did it. Put a good piece of wood on the bat, and I drove the ball.

Q: Manny, on that home run, you're bent over, you're stumbling out of the batter's box, your helmet is coming off, your pants are falling down, and you hit it out. How do you do that?

MANNY RAMIREZ: First, I want to thank Joe for cutting my hair.

He did make a good pitch, and I just drove it. You've got to give that guy credit. I was just lucky just to drive it out of the ballpark.

But in that situation, like I said, I'm just trying to get ready for every pitch out there.

In both situations, he credited Cubs pitcher Sean Marshall for pitching a solid pitch. In neither situation did Ramirez allude to the fact that this 25th postseason home run further extends his MLB record for postseason homers. In one situation, did Manny even make a joke to lighten the mood.

I mean, who is this guy? And why didn't either presidential candidate pick Manny Ramirez for a vice president (people might actually watch tomorrow night's debate, for one thing)? For all the talk about "Manny approaches the game like a 12-year old kid," he certainly approaches the postgame media circus like a professional. And I can only think that his answers are nothing but genuine reflections from a man who rally loves the game. I'm in awe.

Q: Manny, you really played superbly since coming to the Dodgers. What do you think has transformed you?

MANNY RAMIREZ: Nothing, I'm just being Manny. That's it. I've been playing great everywhere, and I'm just happy that I'm here in LA. It was a great move for me, just to go and show people that that other stuff that I left behind wasn't true, that I just want to come and get a new life and play the game, play hard and show people that I still can do this.

Q: You guys have both been on winning teams. What kind of edge do you think it gives you winning the first game and kind of going into their ballpark and taking it like this?

DEREK LOWE: You know, I've seen both sides of it. I think we both have. With Boston we've had so many great match ups with the Yankees over the years. We've been up, down, down 3-0 and found a way to come back. It is only one game. We're not going to get ahead of ourselves. He's won one more World Series than I have, and again, having been part of being up one, down two, up three, down three, you can never get too excited.

We know [Carlos] Zambrano is a fantastic pitcher. So yes, it's one win, but we've got a long way to go.

MANNY RAMIREZ: Like D Lowe said, you cannot get too happy and too sad. It's only one game. We've still got to go tomorrow and play hard. We're going against the best pitcher in the National League, and they've got a great offense. But we cannot fall asleep with those guys. They're the best team in the National League and anything could happen.

Frank, SIGN MANNY RAMIREZ. Make him do your press conferences as well. I'm serious, he could be a great face of the Dodgers for years to come.

And D-Lowe, great job today. Magnificent. The fact that earlier on in this press conference, you said "DeRosa hits a home run and you're down 2-0 but it's still early. You've got to believe in your offense, that they're going to come around."--that only underlines that you too have a great sense of humor.

But you were right, the Dodgers came through with the bats big time tonight, and stole a game from the Cubs that they needed to win, with Zambrano on the mound tomorrow ready to mow us down.

The statistic that everyone was saying on the radio show was that, 20 out of 24 times, the winner of Game 1 in the Divisional Series playoff goes on to win the series.

I'm not feeling comfortable, no matter what the odds. Go get 'em tomorrow, Dodgers. And thank you for a thrilling victory in Game 1.

Post-NLDS Game 1 Thread: A Grand Start, James

DODGERS 7, CUBS 2

top photo by Kelvin Ma/Getty Images
bottom photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images

NLDS Game 1 Thread: Oct 1 @ Cubs, 3:30p

Derek Lowe (0-0, -.--) vs. Ryan Dempster (0-0, -.--).

COMMENTS: Welcome to Sons of Steve Garvey's inaugural post-season Game Thread! There will be a minimum of three and a maximum of 19 such threads in October; the more, the merrier.

Much has been written about today's Dodgers-Cubs match-up. Want a stat-friendly breakdown of the Dodgers' roster? Dodger Thoughts has you covered. How about a positional comparison from the Cubs' point of view? Look no further. Looking for the opinions of national baseball journalists? Here they are.

"But Orel," you say. "Where is the ABBA-related playoff material?" Fret not—SoSG has you covered! Would you like some bitching and moaning about extortionary merchandise pricing? No problem. Can we interest you in our mining the country's current fiscal crisis for Dodger-related parallels? Enjoy!

Unfortunately, if you read enough (real) analysis of this series, one conclusion becomes inescapable: The so-called experts and odds don't favor the Dodgers. Fortunately, we do!

Of course, this game is important to both the Dodgers and Cubs...but it's more important to the Dodgers. Why? Call it the Big Z Factor. Tomorrow, Carlos Zambrano starts Game 2 against Chad Billingsley. Bills is the Dodgers' ace, but home-field advantage and experience give Zambrano the edge. Since the Dodgers don't want to come home down two games, Game 1 is more important to them. Ipso facto voilà.

The biggest wild card in the Dodgers' lineup? Rafael Furcal batting leadoff. The biggest surprise? Maybe Casey Blake batting seventh eighth, although Joe Torre seems pretty into the whole lefty-righty-lefty thing. If Furcal is even close to his old self, this will be by far the strongest lineup the Dodgers have fielded this year. And just in time! GO BLUE!

UPDATE:

TBS has live footage online.

Thanks to Dodger Thoughts for passing along this online viewing option as well.

SoSG Scores 400K Hits

Thanks to all of our readers for helping us get over the 400,000 hit milestone in our short existence. We appreciate you stopping by, and we're always open to feedback; you know where to reach us!

And as SoSG Alex Cora mentioned to me earlier today, "Hopefully the Dodgers will have the same number of hits today against the Cubs."

The Dodgers' Postseason Finally Begins

After months of ups and downs and then an incredible September, the Dodgers' postseason is finally upon us. I'm excited, for reasons I'll post later on this week, but as of right now I am desperately trying to absorb all the playoff series predictions and read all the playoff series articles I can. And I only have five hours left before first pitch!

  • The ESPN series preview page is here. Accuscore (which may be related to Accuweather, I imagine) has the Dodgers at a 46% chance of winning Game 1, far more favorable than I would have expected. Keith Law has a nice breakdown of the team that is insider only, but here's some snippets:

    How They'll Win

    • Derek Lowe and Chad Billingsley have the potential to dominate opponents, although the Dodgers might have to win every game started by either of those two pitchers.

    The Dodgers have the deepest pen of any NL playoff team, and the more the relievers come into play (through early knockouts, extra innings or back-to-back tight games), the more the pendulum shifts in their favor.

    Their core young players have plenty of upside, which also means there's potential for an explosive performance, be it Clayton Kershaw's chance to dominate any left-leaning lineup or Matt Kemp's potential for a three-homer game against a pitcher who grabs too much of the plate.

    How They'll Lose

    • Their No. 3 and No. 4 starters, especially if Kershaw isn't among them, will match up poorly against most other playoff teams' starters in those games. If either of Lowe or Billingsley misses a beat, the Dodgers will be flushed out of the series.

    • October brings better pitching, both in terms of stuff and command. That's bad news for most of the Dodgers' lineup, and the improved pitching will leave them struggling to score runs.

    • An opponent that puts the ball in play will make the Dodgers pay for their weak team defense, especially if manager Joe Torre chooses to be loyal to veterans such as Jeff Kent or Nomar Garciaparra.

    Also interesting is that ESPN expanded its expert picks list, and we've got Jim Caple, Peter Gammons, Pedro "I stalked Barry Bonds for an entire season" Gomez, and Enrique "Cookie" Rojas all picking the Dodgers to not only win this series, but go all the way to the World Series (no other ESPN pundit picked the Dodgers in the NLDS). Of those four, only Rojas has the Dodgers winning it all; the other three have the Angels beating the Dodgers, which would be a pretty sucky outcome even though I have nothing against the Angels per se.

  • Si.com's Game 1 preview highlight's the Cubs' home-field advantage today against the Dodgers' woeful run production on the road. Today is a pivotal game for the Dodgers, SI's Cliff Corcoran contends, about which I don't disagree with Carlos Zambrano's big shadow looming over Game 2. Meanwhile, John Donovan must have had one too many Big Mac sandwiches, as his article about Baseball Prospectus' "secret sauce" puts the Dodgers dead last and the Red Sox in the pole position. Look, if there's anything Andruw Jones knows, it's secret sauce. Don't be hating on the Dodgers, Donovan.
  • Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal basically admits that he is gutless in picking against the Dodgers. Let's see if he gains or loses intestinal fortitude after tonight.

Look, it's One Day at a Time, my friends. Let's make sure we're enjoying the moment, while the stomach ulcers burn us out from the inside and the tidal wave of news stories overwhelms us. Better to be written about, than not at all.

Let's go, Dodgers!

Final PCS Rankings: Congratulations, Jose!

Well it's really just a formality at this point, but the final rankings have been calculated, and it's official: with his clutch performance in the Grand Finale Riddle Puzzle, Jose is hereby crowned the 1st ever SoSG Puzzle Championship Series Champion. Congratulations Jose! He edges out season-long puzzle rival QuadSevens, who fends off Fanerman for the runner-up slot.

Here are the full rankings (and my personal apologies to Mr. Customer and Julie Hibbard for inadvertently leaving them off the 'others receiving votes' section of the previous rankings):

Current
Rank
Previous
Player (Wins)
PCS Tour
Points
1
1
jose (3)
557
2
2
quadsevens (2)
449
3
4
fanerman
427
4
3
steve
370
5
6
mike scioscia's t.i. (1)
275
6
5
daniel
260
7
8
neeebs
250
T8
8
berkowit28 (1)
235
T8
10
erin
235
10
7
gil gamesh
185

Others receiving votes: sax/karros 143, karina 125, mr. customer 115, cigarcow 105, loney fan 80, jbowes 50, stolenmonkey86 50, orel 30, dusto magnifico 25, ricardo 20, alex cora 10, delino deshields 10, julie hibbard 10


Of the two prize options available to him, Jose has chosen the puzzle creation option. So look forward to his concoction in the not-too-distant-but-not-necessarily-too-immediate future. We'll let you know. And that also means the well-worn path between SoSG's regional post office and the one serving Quad's house will be trodden once again, as we will be shipping him the Furcal bobblehead as runner-up.

But that's not all. Just for kicks, I couldn't pass up the opportunity to merge puzzles and graphs. So here's a visual representation of the ups and downs of PCS Season I since the inception of the rankings 10 puzzles ago (due to space constraints, only puzzlers who at some point were in the Top 5 are included):

(click image to enlarge)

A few observations:

  • Up through Puzzle #8 was The QuadSevens Era. If the season ended at any point before Puzzle #9, Quad would have been the unquestioned champ. He was able to maintain his top ranking throughout this period in spite of facing a worthy challenger in SoSG Orel. But as it would turn out, there was a greater threat on the horizon...
  • And that threat was named Jose. Puzzles #9 through #13 defined The Jose Era. Jose may have benefited from Quad's early rivalry with Orel, as it allowed him to rise strongly and steadily during the QuadSevens Era yet still remain under the radar.
  • Puzzles #14 and beyond.....? Don't look now, but both Fanerman and Steve have been doing an impressive imitation of Jose's previous rise to stardom. Will history books one day speak of the Fanerman or Steve Era? Only time will tell, my friends, only time will tell.

Well there you have it. Hey, I'm just trying to keep busy until 3:30pm.