NLDS and ALDS Playoff Game Thread: Oct 6, 2012

ALDS: Oakland at Detroit - 3p
Parker, J (13-8, 3.47) vs. Verlander (17-8, 2.64)

NLDS: Cincinnati at San Francisco - 6:30p
Cueto (19-9, 2.78) vs. Cain (16-5, 2.79)

Good News for SoSG Staff and Readers!

SoSG Dusty Baker's Concept for a New Bar at Dodger Stadium

Eric Stephen over at True Blue LA reports that plans for Dodger Stadium upgrades are beginning to come together:

"Out in the seating bowl, we'll have more bars, more restaurants, more hanging out areas that you see in other stadiums," Kasten said.

More bars! There is more to the story but this is as far as I got. MORE BARS, people!

Image: Here

Kemp Set for Opening Day after Surgery

Beast Mode, as we all know, underwent shoulder surgery today. Word is that it was more than just cleanup that was needed, but Kemp should be ready for Opening Day on April 1.

Los Angeles Dodgers slugger Matt Kemp had surgery on his left shoulder on Friday and should be ready for Opening Day.

During the 60-minute procedure at the Kerlan-Jobe Clinic in Los Angeles, Dr. Neal ElAttrache repaired a tear of the labrum in Kemp's shoulder and some minor damage to the rotator cuff, the team said.

Kemp will begin physical therapy in seven to 10 days and is expected to start swinging a bat in early January.

Wild Card Game Thread: Oct 5, 2012

Sorry guys, I'm on my iPad so this is going to be limited.

First up comes the game the Dodgers were hoping to attend: Cards at Braves. Could this be Chipper's last stand?

Second comes Orioles @ Rangers. Orioles have a handful of lucky beans while the Rangers are pissed they choked at season's end. Here we go.

Guess What Time It Is!

Oh, it's on.

What better way to blow off steam from a baseball season that fell just short than by the comment-thread carnage that is...

...The Assassins' Circle!

(menacing theme song here)

Sign-up list:

• Jason
• Nomo
• Stubbs
• DKA?
• Spank
• Dusty
• QuadSevens
• Gagne's Lucky Glasses
• Steve Sax
• Eric Karros
• Paul
• Neeebs
• Rbnlaw
• Wicks

This is your sign-up thread. Rules refresher and official schedule to follow.

Friday Notes

Odds and ends as we continue mourning the end of the season and waiting for the playoffs to start:

Excellent piece from LA Times' Bill Dwyre yesterday on the 161st game of the season:

Like any great novel or any great baseball game, the ending is fittingly heart-rending. This time, as is often the case, fiction is outdone by fact and the baseball gods. Mark Ellis is the batter, the final hope with two out and Gordon in scoring position at second base.

It is cruel, dramatic, spellbinding. Perhaps even a bit evil. Or, as Scully says, "Well, it figures."

When Ellis' soft line drive settles into the glove of the center fielder, and playoff baseball leaves Southern California without a dog in the fight again, Scully neither belabors it nor deflects it. His team has failed to win, but has succeeded in giving him yet one more canvas for one more Picasso.

Also at the LA Times, Steve Dilbeck reports that ticket prices will not increase for the 2013 season:

So do the Dodgers anticipate raising prices for 2013?

“I do not,” said team CEO Stan Kasten. “We’re going to be tweaking, just for reasons of seat classifications.

“But in general prices aren’t going up. Some may, while others go down, but in general they will stay the same.”

Kasten said the increase in attendance this season was actually greater than announced.

“For reasons I don’t want to get into, it’s a brighter picture than you all realize, because of the way the arithmetic was done this year vs. how arithmetic was done in the past,” he said.

At Dodger Blogger Night, Kasten talked about how screwy the seat nomenclature and pricing tiers are, and that he couldn't understand them, so I expect he's referring to sorting that out so one doesn't have to appeal to a Cal Tech professor to figure out where to buy the right tickets. But overall, it seems ticket pricing will remain status quo. A good fan-friendly move, Stan.

Elsewhere, glad to hear that Colletti is focusing on starting pitching:

"I would say starting pitching is an area that we're going to have to seriously look at," Colletti said.

This spring, Ted Lilly will be coming off arthroscopic shoulder surgery and the Dodgers are preparing themselves for the possibility that Chad Billingsley will undergo Tommy John surgery that will cost him all of 2013. That means they enter the off-season with four starters: Clayton Kershaw, Chris Capuano, Josh Beckett and Aaron Harang. Joe Blanton is a free agent and unlikely to return.

It's not a particularly deep free agent market, but expect the Dodgers to be heavily engaged. They also could be in position to make a trade if another team is willing to move a top-flight starter for salary relief.

Finally, let's all join in wishing Matt Kemp well in his shoulder surgery today. Think cleanup, not repair!

Matt Kemp To Have Shoulder Surgery Tomorrow

You're going in there?

We all knew Matt Kemp was playing hurt for much of this season, exacerbated in the latter stages following a devastating crash into the Colorado outfield wall that damaged his shoulder. Mad props to Kemp for fighting through the pain, but even more props to him for recognizing the urgency of getting this fixed. And so, Kemp wasted no time in getting the treatment he's needed for months:

Matt Kemp will wake up from surgery Friday and learn whether his shoulder issues are something he will have to deal with heading into next season.

The gravity of the arthroscopic procedure won't be known until Dr. Neal ElAttrache looks into his shoulder.

If the damage to the labrum in Kemp's left shoulder is minor, ElAttrache will clean it up and Kemp will be able to resume baseball activities in four to six weeks. If the damage is more extensive, Kemp could be sidelined for four months.

"This is humbling," Kemp said, "but, unfortunately, it's something that has to be done."

Kemp's importance to the Dodgers was evident this season, even after they added All-Star-caliber players such as Adrian Gonzalez and Hanley Ramirez to their lineup. The Dodgers continue to view Kemp as the centerpiece of their lineup and leader of their clubhouse, and there's no reason to believe that will change next season.

"Hopefully, it is a cleanup so he cannot have to worry about being ready for the season," Gonzalez said.

Gonzalez had those concerns leading up to the 2011 season. That winter, the left-handed-hitting first baseman had the labrum on his right shoulder repaired.

"You just have to trust it, take it slow and not try to get back at a certain time," Gonzalez said. "The doctor said four months before I could get in a game, so I didn't try to do anything before that."

Gonzalez was limited to 11 games in spring training, his first with the Boston Red Sox.

"I didn't have a lot of power in April, but I got hits and everything," Gonzalez said. "Once May rolled around, I felt pretty good." [...]

While admitting he was nervous about his upcoming operation, Kemp remained as bold as ever.

"I'll be even better than I was this year for next year," he said.

(The article goes on to talk about Chad Billingsley and his ailing elbow, but I don't want to depress you.

Get in there, doc, stat! And don't find anything scary while you're in there. We want Matt back at 100% as soon as possible.

Think Blue; Think Positively

This morning I'm trying to shake off the Blue funk and think about the positive things we can take away from the 2012 season. And there were plenty as follows in no particular order, save for the first three:

1) Vin is coming back
2) Guggenheim Group
3) Guggenheim Group
4) AJ Ellis and #AJ2KC
5) SoSG Fest III
6) Gangnam Style meme
7) SoSG readers, both new and old
8) El Mariachi Loco at first for years to come
9) Josh Beckett coming in for reinforcements down the stretch
10) This HAS to be the last we see of Urine, right?
11) Cool-a-Coos are back!
12) Shane Victorino getting in fights on our behalf, not against us
13) Ten-dollar parking
14) Cruuuuuuuuuuuuuz!
15) Seven games better than last year; exciting late-season Wild Card chase
16) What payroll budget?
17) Attendance up
18) Stan Kasten's vision
19) #ISeeYou
20) Guggenheim Group

I'm sure there are plenty more. What say you?

Kershaw Won't Need Surgery for Hip

Per Dylan Hernandez at LA Times, Kershaw has made sufficient progress rehabbing his hip through a combination of an injection, therapy, and TLC from Sue Falsone that he won't require offseason surgery, which would have put him out for the first month of the 2013 season.

#HugeWhew!

Image: These folks

Post-Game 162 Thread: Giants Commence Four-Game Losing Streak

DODGERS 5, GIANTS 1

Well, it's been a nice year, boys and girls, but tonight we have to bring this Dodgers season to a close. Clayton Kershaw abused the Giants for eight innings, yielding three hits and one run, accumulating eight Ks. And, Kershaw singled in a run for his second RBI of the year.

Juan Rivera knocked a two-run HR in the three-run eighth inning. Alex Castellanos cranked his first major league HR. Kevin Federowicz went 1-for-3 with 2 Ks. And Mark Ellis went 0-for-2 before being removed for someone who wouldn't get thrown out at third trying to stretch a double.

The Dodgers finish 10 games over .500 (86-76), fifth-best in the NL, and exactly where our pythagorean record would have put us. We had a run differential of +40 (637-597), and our 597 RA was third-best in the NL behind Cincinnati and Washington.

All in all, a great end to a season where we ended up a wee bit short; but winning seven of our last eight helps me keep positive about 2013. Now, it's time to start rooting for the Orioles. See you on Friday!

Game 162 Thread: Oct 3 vs. Giants, 4.15p

Clayton Kershaw (13-9, 2.58) vs. Ryan Vogelsong (14-9, 3.46).

I'm going to today's game, despite the fact that the outcome is irrelevant. I am excited to see Kershaw's last start of the year. I am hoping we bean a Giant or four. And I'll eat my last Dodger Dog of 2012.

Hey, at least it's getting me out of work early.

At Least We Have This: Giants Aren't Built For Postseason

There's a delicious irony about the WSJ article yesterday, "How to Win a Post-Steroids World Series", given it was steroids which got the Giants to the postseason yet again this year (read: Guillermo Mota and Melky Cabrera, let alone others).

But anyway, the Journal did an assessment of the 2012 postseason teams relative to major statistical categories, and the Giants were worse off than the Cardinals, Nationals, and Reds:

The typical way to make predictions is to look at how San Francisco's aces will fare against Detroit's sluggers, for instance. But the answer may be simpler than that: By analyzing the statistical performances of the World Series champions the past five years (since offensive performances went off a cliff compared to the "steroids era") it's not hard to come up with a profile for an eventual champion. [...]

Every team has its strengths and weaknesses, but in four of the past five cases, the eventual champion met or surpassed certain statistical benchmarks. They all scored at least 4.7 runs per game, struck out fewer than 1,118 times during the season, gave up no more than 4.26 runs per game and coughed up fewer than 182 home runs.

In hindsight, it's not hard to see why the Philadelphia Phillies made a first-round exit last October despite winning 102 games during the regular season. That Phillies team didn't fit the portfolio of recent champions in numerous hitting categories, including on-base percentage, slugging percentage, home runs and runs per game.

So when using the past as prologue, the team that looks like the best bet to win the World Series is the Texas Rangers. The Rangers are the only team that surpasses the championship thresholds in every category, thanks to an offense led by outfielder Josh Hamilton and infielder Ian Kinsler, and a pitching staff led by Yu Darvish and Matt Harrison.

Going by these benchmarks, the Rangers will likely face a familiar foe in the World Series in the St. Louis Cardinals, who beat them last year. The Cardinals will have to win a wild-card game but have solid pitching and are the only National League team with a champion-caliber offense in three categories. (Naturally, NL teams are going to have worse offensive numbers and better pitching numbers than their AL opponents, because pitchers hit in the NL.)

Here's the graphic, if you are interested (click to enlarge):

And Now It's Time For hateHateHATE

With the Dodgers' season over, it's time to focus our hate at the Giants. So here's the opening salvo: ESPN.com says they have no chance of winning it all (link insider only):

The San Francisco Giants will finish the regular season ranked in the top 10 of the ESPN Power Rankings for the eighth straight week, and in 16 of the final 17. The Giants finished with three straight fifth-place rankings, the highest they have been ranked this season. And still, the Giants have no chance of winning the World Series.

The Giants have played well this season, and they have been red hot in September, but they are a thin team that has feasted on inferior competition. Buster Posey is one of the best players in baseball, and Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner are top-30 pitchers. But outside of that, the quality dips quickly. [...]

Reaching the World Series seems a bit far-fetched at this point, however. Pitching becomes paramount in the postseason, and at this point the Giants rotation essentially amounts to "Bumgarner, Cain and pray for rain." Both starters have pitched consistently well throughout the season, but after that, things get shaky. On Sunday, Tim Lincecum became just the 11th pitcher in Petco Park history to allow three or more home runs in a single outing, and after the game he had to confirm that he would actually be part of the postseason starting rotation. That this was even a question shows how far the two-time Cy Young Award winner has fallen. His 4.19 FIP is more than a half-run worse than his rookie season and is by far the worst mark of his career. The picture isn't much rosier for Ryan Vogelsong. While the right-hander has better numbers for the season, he has been cuffed around lately. After compiling a 2.36 first-half ERA, he has struggled to a 5.11 ERA since the All-Star break.

In most seasons, this might not be as big of an issue, as the Giants generally have a rock-solid bullpen. That has not been the case this season. Looking at shutdowns and meltdowns, which is a more evolved measuring stick than saves and blown saves, the Giants have one of the worst bullpens in the game, a sharp contrast to the past two seasons. Their SD/MD ratio is 22nd overall and ranks 12th among the 14 teams who have either clinched postseason berths or are still in the running (see table). Looking at context neutral wins, or WPA/LI, which is also a great way to look at reliever performance, we can see the Giants have slid here as well. In 2010 and 2011, they produced top-10 units, but this season they have slipped all the way to 28th in baseball -- only the Cubs and Astros have been worse.

It's not hard to see why. The team's best reliever, Sergio Romo, has to be treated with kid gloves. The fragile righty has averaged well under an inning per appearance in his career, and has never thrown more than 62 innings in the regular season. This season, he has logged appearances on three straight days only twice -- once in mid-May, and then again right after the All-Star break, when he had a few extra days of rest. Romo is terrific when he pitches, but on days that he is unavailable, the Giants bullpen is woefully thin. Jeremy Affeldt has 16 shutdowns against 15 meltdowns this season, and he may be the next-best option. Rookie George Kontos is the only other pitcher in the zip code, and he has more meltdowns than shutdowns for the season himself.

The Giants are the weakest of the three divisional leaders. From a 2012 record perspective, as well.

Post-Game 161 Thread: Game Over

GIANTS 4, DODGERS 3

It was a valiant effort, but the Dodgers came up short. Or rather, we didn't come up short, but we made sure to still come up short.

In the pivotal, gut-wrenching seventh inning, A.J. Ellis' nine-pitch at bat against Giant steroid user (sorry, that was redundant) Guillermo Mota ended with a deep HR to dead center, plating two and making it 4-3. But even though those two runs came with none out, the Dodgers' momentum came to a screeching halt: Nick Punto struck out, Mark Ellis inexplicably tried to stretch a double and was nailed at third by about four hundred miles, and then Shane Victorino tripled to right (which would have tied the game had Ellis not been an idiot)...only to watch Matt Kemp strike out for the third time, stranding Victorino at third.

Kemp hurled the bat. Dodger fans just hurled.

Mark Ellis, he of the one triple all year, ran us out of the 2012 season.

And that was as close as we came. Eighth inning, nothing. Ninth inning, Andre Ethier led off with a single to center. But with two out in the ninth, PR Dee Gordon barely stole second during an at bat of--you guessed it--Mark Ellis. Who flied out to center for the final out.

Now if you'll excuse me, I have Evelyn Taft to ogle.

I mean, seriously. How can you not smile:

Game 161 Thread: October 2 vs. Giants, 7p

Chris Capuano (12-11, 3.69) vs. Barry Zito (14-8, 4.19).

With the Reds @ Cardinals game (Mat Latos (13-4) vs. Chris Carpenter (0-1)) set to start at 5p PT, once again we'll be looking at the scoreboard as we hang on for dear life to our postseason hopes. The Dodgers need to take this win streak all the way to eight games to even have a shot; on top of that, the Reds need to give us some help. Last night's walk-off win probably gave us momentum, but can this sustain?

The Giants have won in each of Zito's last ten starts (he has gone 6-0), but his ERA has been a mediocre 4.02 over that period. Pray that the baseball gods smile upon us this evening (and next!), else we become...expendable.

Sobriety Sinks In: Bleak House? Hard Times.

Two games left, four possible outcomes, and all four have to go the Dodgers' way. Do the Dodgers have a Dickens of a chance?

With Victory, Dodgers Secure Third NL Wild Card Slot

Elian Herrera, last night's walk-off king.

Nothing else to play for in these last two games, right?

photo: Stephen Dunn / Getty Images (October 1, 2012)

Post-Game 160 Thread: Scoot' Slips, Sink Chumps

DODGERS 3, GIANTS 2

The Dodgers stay alive tonight with a ninth-inning victory over an overmatched team. Andre Ethier took Matt Cain deep in the fourth for a 2-1 lead, and though the Giants tied it in the eighth when Shane Victorino forgot how to both field AND throw on the same play, Elian Herrera capped a ninth inning with a one-out, bases-loaded rocket that was too hot for the Giants' Marco Scutaro to handle on the fly. Hanley Ramirez, who led the ninth off with a single up the middle, was the winning run.

The Cardinals won, to cut their magic number to one. But you can't hate on the Dodgers when we walk off with the victory! So let's keep this winning streak (six, tied for our longest of the year) going.

PLAYOFFS!

Game 160 Thread: Oct. 1 vs. Giants, 7p

Aaron Harang (10-10, 3.68) vs. Matt Cain (16-5, 2.77).

The Dodgers have a ghost of a chance at making the playoffs, and Harang will have to have the game of his life against the Giants' ace for the Dodgers to live another day...or eat power pellets in another maze, or however the adage goes. The Cards-Reds tilt started a few hours ago, so the Cards are probably already down a dozen runs or so. Do you believe? PLAYOFFS!

Three Games Left. Six Outcomes. Two Games To Make Up.

So it comes down to this: two three-game series, Dodgers-Giants and Cardinals-Reds. The Giants have nothing at stake except the pride of their rivalry; the Reds are arguably fighting for home-field advantage (with the Nationals) as well as their own NL Central rivalry.

We need the Reds to take the series against St. Louis, if not sweep them outright. And we need to step up and win the series against the Giants, if not sweep them outright.

That's a lot of pressure. ESPN says we've got a 4.8% chance of earning that second wild card spot, for the right to play Atlanta in a one-game playoff of postseason baseball.

As someone said in the comments, this situation here in 2012 is indeed bleak, but then, did we ever really think we'd be contending this year in the first place? Given the new ownership taking the reins midway through the year, I never thought we'd be contending for the playoffs up to the final series of the year.

Sure, I did think the late-season trades we made would prove to have a higher yield than what we've seen. But I look at our current five-game win streak as hope for 2013, and at worst perhaps a complication as we consider the last-week performance of some of our players (some of whom have sucked since joining the Dodgers) and try to determine their potential for next season and beyond.

But this last series is about the here and now, and as one of only two people at SoSG Fest III who publicly admitted that we believed the Dodgers would make the playoffs, my optimism hasn't been totally squelched as of yet. At least, mathematically speaking.

I am resolved to the fact that it will likely be the Giants who knock us out, on our home field. And though I am resolved to root against them with fervor as they move on, I know this last series will be painful to watch as we become eliminated.

But I know I'll watch.

Let's go, Dodgers! PLAYOFFS!

Your pressure-generating reading links of this morning:

• Dodgers stay in the chase (Dylan Hernandez, LAT)
• Of course, it's the Giants who could eliminate us (Steve Dilbeck, LAT.com)
• The Dodgers need help from our friends (Mark Saxon, ESPN.com)
• Giants aren't playing "clean baseball" lately (SFGate.com)