Stat of the Day: Stolen Bases Running Wild...Except For The Dodgers

The new 2023 bases would have been incentive for former Dodger maanger Tommy Lasorda.

With the new larger bases, stolen bases are up this year! And the stolen base success rate is up this year (to ~80%)!

But stolen bases aren't compelling for the Dodgers, who rank T-28th in the majors for stolen bases, with a total of two on the whole team (both by James Outman). Only Minnesota has fewer stolen bases (1), through Wednesday April 12th's games--though to be fair, the Twins lead the AL Central, ahead of the Cleveland Guardians, who lead the majors with 19 SB. Still, T-28th is probably not where the Dodgers want to be.

Now, there are four Dodgers who have tried stolen bases and gotten caught, so that gives us a 33% success rate, which isn't very inspiring. But when it seems every other team is running wild (the NL West-leading Diamondbacks have 17 SB this year), shouldn't we at least consider swiping a bag or two more often?

Post-Game 13 Thread: Muncy The Giant Killer

DODGERS 10, GIANTS 5

Max Muncy will not be denied in the Giants' Oracle Park.

When Dave Roberts started Muncy this series, he delivered. Two homers and 7 RBI (including a grand slam in the seventh inning) led the Dodgers to a 9-1 lashing over San Francisco on Monday. Here's both HR, with the grand slam being pretty majestic:

And thanks to SoSG QuadSevens for picking up Muncy on the post-game show Monday, when he confessed he doesn't even like Oracle Park in the first place:

Roberts followed that epic performance...by sitting Muncy against Alex Wood (Muncy did come in to pinch hit in the eighth, and struck out. And the Dodgers promptly lost 5-0.

So in the rubber match against the Giants on Wednesday, guess who was back in the starting lineup? Max Frickin' Muncy. And even though the Dodgers were down 3-0 through two frames, and the comeback was a team effort (with six Dodgers tallying RBI, and eight Dodgers scoring runs), it was Muncy's heroics which headlined the win. Here's Muncy's second home run of the game:

According to Ben Ross of MLB.com, Muncy's 21 round-trippers against the Giants since the start of the 2020 season are the second-most of any player against any team, behind only Aaron Judge’s 22 against the Orioles. Kershaw got win #199 (6.0 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 2 BB and 4 Ks).

It's a series win over the Giants. but itnwould have been a series sweep if Muncy had started all three games.

And the Dodgers go back atop the NL for run differential (+24), tied with the Brewers. Los Angeles ends the day in second place in the NL West, tied with the Padres and trailing the Diamondbacks.

Muncy's batting average lifted from .121 before the series to a whopping .214 ending play tonight. Now, Chris Taylor is still batting .091, so that's a continuing concern. We're going to need Taylor more, now that Miguel Roas looks to be out with a left hamstring cramp. Maybe some home cooking (starting Friday against the Cubs) will turn things around for CT3?

Series Thread (Games 11-13): Apr 10-12 @ Giants

Mon 4.10: Julio Urias vs. Webb
Tue 4.11: Dustin May vs. Wood
Wed 4.12: Clayton Kershaw vs. Cobb
All games 6.45p

The Dodgers just came off a very unsatisfying four-game series in Arizona in which they scored 22 runs, striking first blood in all four games--and only ended up with one win to show for those efforts. Three times, on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, the Diamondbacks used speed on the bases and timely hitting to overwhelm the Dodgers and take back leads for good. The Dodgers yielded 23 runs to the Snakes on Saturday and Sunday alone, letting the games get out of hand quickly.

This may be the pitch clock era swallowing the methodical Dave Roberts' relief pitching decisions, as things spiral out of control before an arm is reaady in the extremely shaky bullpen. Noah Syndergaard's 6.30 ERA and Michael Grove's 14.73 ERA also don't help any, but nor does a bullpen full of underachieving pitchers (Caleb Ferguson, 4.50 ERA; Andre Jackson, 5.40; Brusdar Graterol, 6.75; and Alex Vesia, a stratospheric 12.00).

Oh, and Max Muncy, who ended last year batting .196, is even WORSE this year at .121. I didn't think that was possible given the shift limitations, but Muncy is beyond my putrid expectations so far. Miguel "I'm Not Gavin" Rojas is .118; Chris Taylor is .125; and David Peralta is .174. It's pretty pathetic from about half of the Dodgers' lineup.

So what to make of this? Maybe the Snakes just have our number this year (winning five of eight). Or maybe this 2023 Dodgers team just sucks. At 5-5 through 10 games, we're in second place by a game. This series against San Francisco should prove whether we've got something, or whether we will just be in the Padres' rear view mirror all year.

Series Thread (Games 7-10): April 6-9 @ D'backs

The MLB creative department did not release a logo for this weekend's series, so I used the Power Lifting America one instead.

Thu 4.6 7.10p: Dustin May vs. Kelly
Fri 4.7 6.40p: Clayton Kershaw vs. TBD
Sat 4.8 5.10p: Noah Syndergaard vs. TBD
Sun 4.9 1.10p: Michael Grove vs. TBD

When we last saw the Diamondbacks, oh...two games ago, the Snakes split four games at our house. Which in my mind, was a steal--this is a team that's supposed to finish with only 76 wins this year (latest PECOTA projections). But small ball at the plate, and a total Dodgers power outage in the even-numbered games, doomed the Dodgers and left us with an unsatisfying series split.

Winning two against the Rockies puts us at 4-2 and atop the NL West by a game. And there's no Urias on the mound this series, so we'll need the next four in the rotation to step up and keep our two-game win streak alive.

Post-Game 6 Thread: Jason Heyward Starts 2023 Like A Wrecking Ball

DODGERS 5, ROCKIES 2

Jason Heyward mashed his second home run of the year, a third-inning solo shot to right that was absolutely crushed with a 112.7 mph exit velocity. Holy smokes, that was a violent swing. And with that, the Dodgers took a 3-0 lead (Will Smith had homered in his third straight game to notch the Dodgers' first two runs), and were sporting a 84.8% win probability.

Heyward also brought his wrecking-ball ways to his defense, however. He undercut a retreating Mookie Betts on a fly ball to short right for the last out of the seventh inning. And then Heyward let a double go off his glove to score the Rockies' first run in the ninth. Suddenly, that pendulum we saw in the series with the Diamondbacks had turned into a two-way wrecking ball, for sure. But fortunately for the Dodgers, Evan Phillips was there to shut the door on the Rockies, and the Dodgers sweep both games from Colorado and take the lead in the NL West.

Max Muncy also hit a home run tonight and went 2-for-4 in the cleanup spot to raise his average to .150. Chris Taylor is still struggling, 0-for-3 tonight and batting .071 on the year. And Julio Urias had a clean 6.0 IP, 5 H and 0 ER, with 0 BB and 6 Ks, halving his ERA to 1.50 in his second performance.

The Dodgers go 4-2 on this opening homestand, but there's still work to be done. Off-day tomorrow, and then four in the Arizona desert starting Thursday.

Post-Game 5 Thread: The Dodgers Pendulum Keeps On Swinging

Simple Pendulum Pendulum GIFfrom Simple Pendulum GIFs

DODGERS 13, ROCKIES 4

One day after 0-fer-ing with RISP, the Dodgers lit up the Rockies with a 4-for-9 with RISP performance, including what MLB.com's Juan Toribio called "one of the best two-out rallies you’ll see all season long." Apparently, the Dodgers are a pendulum swinging from feast to famine on successive games. If this continues, I'm going to be sea sick. Or hypnotized.

The Dodgers had just given up a 2-0 lead in the top of the fifth, and were trailing 4-2. And then Chris Taylor popped to second, and Mookie Betts Kd swinging, to make it two out and no one on. And then:

• Freddie Freeman doubles to right.
• Will Smith walks.
• Max Muncy walks. Bases loaded. Rockies go to Jake Bird to relieve starter Ryan Feltner.
• JD Martinez narrowly misses a grand slam, then singles to left to score Freeman and Smith. Muncy to second. Tied at 4.
• James Outman triples (his first of two triples in the game!), scoring Muncy and Martinez. 6-4 LA.
• Miguel Vargas singles to left, scoring Outman. 7-4 LA.
• Jason Heyward homers, scoring Vargas. 9-4 LA.
• Taylor grounds to second for the third out.

What an inning, and the Dodgers didn't look back. So now we have blowout victories in games 1, 3, and 5; and bad 2-1 losses in games 2 and 4 (both of which showed 0-fers with RISP).

So I guess we know what's in store tomorrow, right? Maybe that's why they're giving away hooded sweatshirts to the first 40K attendees.

Series Thread (Games 5-6): Apr 3-4 vs. Rockies

Mon Apr 3 7p: Michael Grove vs. Feltner
Tue Apr 4 7p: Julio Urias vs. Marquez

With Tony Gonsolin recuperating from a spring training ankle injury, and prospect Ryan Pepiot on the mend from an oblique injury, the Dodgers go to Michael Grove (career 6 GS, 1-0, 4.60 ERA) to take the mound Monday as our fifth starter. Going 2-2 against the lowly Diamondbacks doesn't give me a lot of confidence with how this two-game series is going to go, even against the 2-2 Rockies (to be fair, almost the entire NL West is also 2-2).

Let's see how Grover fares tonight!

Post-Game 4 Thread: Dodgers Decide To Hit Only Every Other Game

We keep forgetting situational hitting like today's farce, and we'll see a lot more sad Thor faces this season.

D'BACKS 2, DODGERS 1

Wasting a great effort from Noah "Thor" Syndergaard in his first Dodgers appearance, the Dodgers went 0-for-6 with RISP to split the series with a scrappy but overmatched Arizona team that had no business stealing two wins out of four. Not that the Dodgers' four measly hits all game helped any--and that includes a first-inning HR from Will Smith that seemed to get things on the right foot this afternoon. But that was the only run the Dodgers scored, leaving eight on base all game--and it was a frustrating disaster to watch (in my first game of the year at the Stadium).

Today's pathetic RISP performance echoed Friday's turd, another 2-1 loss that wasted another great starting effort (Dsustin May: 7.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB and 4 Ks), when the Dodgers went 0-for-7 with RISP and had 12 LOB. Chris Taylor went 0-for-7 in two games this series and looked overmatched at the plate, which is a huge concern after his poor performance last year; he's on track to be Cody Bellinger 2.0 at this rate. Will Smith, JD Martinez, and Trayce Thompson each had two strikeouts (the latter two also going 0-for-4 today), and Thompson, last night's hero, looked as bad as CT3 from the plate today.

Dodgers highlights, besides the Smith HR in the first, included Mookie Betts nailing a Ketel Marte at home on a Lourdes Gurriel Jr single to right, preserving the tie. However, Brusdar Graterol--who looked crappy all inning in the top of the ninth--couldn't escape from a jam of his own creation, when a drag bunt up the first-base line inexplicably evaded his glove on what would have ended the inning. Instead, now down 2-1, the Dodgers went feebly in the ninth: PH Austin Barnes Kd on three pitches; Chris Taylor Ks on a foul tip; and PH Jason Heyward grounds to first to end the game.

The quick 2:32 game time wasn't a lot of consolation when watching the Dodgers' half innings fly by in the blink of an eye. We're better than this. This wasn't a good start.

Diamondbacks Displeased with Dodger Power Output

Rave Party GIFfrom Rave GIFs

Dodger Stadium got new LED lights this offseason. They're brighter, they're designed to reduce glare and improve quality, and now they can incorporate color. And the Diamondbacks aren't happy about it.

“I wasn’t too pleased about that,” [Diamondbacks manager Torey] Lovullo said. “It’s the first game for everybody. Hopefully they figure it out. I’ll definitely bring it up with my group here in the front office here and just see what they think about doing. I don’t think anything was done maliciously. I just think they hit the wrong button at the wrong time and they need to be better at that.”

My first game of the year will be a day game, so I won't be able to see the light show in action. I did notice, in watching highlights of Game 1's 8-2 victory, that the light effects seemed to be a little aggressive.

I suppose the biggest remedy for this, from the Diamondbacks' perspective, is to allow fewer Dodger runs. But by the same token, I'd prefer to be able to watch the game as well, rather than see runners take an extra-base hit under strobe effects. Let's have the light guy keep it in the pants a bit.

Faster Baseball Games Means Less Time To Drink (And Pour) Beer

graph courtesy New York Times Upshot

We all saw this coming, but now it's here: major league baseball games are a heck of a lot faster, with the pitch clock implementation of 2023. Spring training was a key indication, with games shortening by 26 minutes (from 3:03 average time to 2:35. And having attended a Dodgers Spring Training game in Camelback this year, I have to tell you, it's a different experience as a spectator and fan. Tim Kurkjian over at ESPN had warned me that his first time watching the game, he couldn't take his eyes off the field because he was afraid of missing something. And that's how it felt, watching Dustin May deliver pitches to the plate so quickly even with men on base.

Pitchers are probably going to have the biggest adjustment to this new rule, which turns baseball into more of a momentum game like volleyball or basketball--you can't get a sideout or take a timeout to stop a coming snowball from accumulating mass and speed. And along with the shorter game time, that same NYT Upshot piece also found that the average hits per hour had a sharp increase as well, now 6.1 hits per hour from 5.3 last year.

So what does this mean for fans?

Less time to drink beer. Yep, this is going to lead to some serious binge drinking at the ballpark, especially if they continue to cut off beer sales at the end of the seventh inning. The Dodgers-Diamondbacks game last night lasted only 2:35 and that's with 10 runs scored; we had two games go as short as 2:14 in duration on Opening Day 2023. Thankfully, Dodger Stadium recently implemented beer sales at one's seat. Those vendors are going to have to be as fleet footed as the batboys and ballboys will need to be under these new 2023 rules.

Does this mean that we'll have the travesty of foamy beer pours in the aisles, from flustered mobile beer vendors looking to increase their throughput time? Let's hope not (and I prefer to pour my own beer, anyway). But who speaks for the beer drinker, when everyone is just speaking for the casual baseball fan? Beer drinkers have rights, too!

I'll be at the Stadium Sunday afternoon to see this in action. Will report back.

Opening Series Thread (Games 1-4): Mar 30 - Apr 2 vs. Diamondbacks

Thur Mar 30 7p: Julio Urias vs. Gallen
Fri Mar 31 7p: Dustin May vs. Kelly
Sat Apr 1 6p: Clayton Kershaw vs. Bumgarner
Sun Apr 2 1p: Noah Syndergaard vs. Davies

For the first time in a long time, the Dodgers enter this season without a groundswell of optimism, thanks to a largely somnambulent offseason where the Dodgers lost more WAR than any other team, driving them to a overall net WAR loss of -11.5. As fivethirtyeight.com states, this has driven many projection models and pundits to sound the alarm bells for the Dodgers, and though they have the highest uncertainty in 2023 win projections, some (like ESPN's Buster Olney) pick the Dodgers to not even finish on top of the division at year's end (Olney picked the Padres to win the 2023 World Series).

It's also not clear how all of MLB's rule changes will affect the Dodgers (let alone any other team in baseball). The pitch clock should help Dodgers pitching, most of whom tend to be quick operators. Banning the shift should help lift Max Muncy's batting average, not to mention highlight the defensive skill sets of new pickup Miguel Rojas (our starting shortstop, since Gavin Lux is out for the season) and rookie Miguel Vargas (who couldn't swing the bat for most of spring training due to an injured hand). And I'm still on the fence on whether the larger bases will really drive more stolen bases--the risk of injury to a runner is still a pretty major deterrent individually, even if teams or their statisticians may want it--but figure the bigger bases might be a benefit to the run-happy Dodgers (9th in the MLB last year for team SB), even with the departure of speedsters like Trea Turner and Cody Bellinger.

But let's get back to that WAR calculation with just some pure math. Sharpen your pencils! The Dodgers won 111 games last year, so with a net loss of -11.5 WAR, so that puts us as 99 wins for 2023. The Padres won 89 games last year, and even with their vaunted lineup of Juan Soto, Xander Boegarts, Manny Machado, and the eventual return of PED-user Fernando Tatis Jr.--they also had a net WAR loss of -0.6, which would put them at 88 games for 2023. 99 > 88. Dodgers still win the NL West.

I was debating this issue with SoSG Dusty Baker at this past weekend's spring training game @ Camelback Ranch, and I still think a 22-game gap (from 2022) will be difficult to close in one season. The math says that we'll see half that gap close, but it's still an 11-game lead. Not to mention, I'm sure Dodgers GM Andrew Friedman has some tricks up his sleeve, should the Dodgers get out to a solid start in 2023.

And that 2023 start commences today. Let's go, Dodgers. I'll be there Sunday afternoon (along with SoSG Alex Cora), when it would be great if we were able to watch Thor complete a series sweep of the Snakes.

2023 Isn't Even Here Yet, And The Dodgers Are Already Losing Bad

I've already spent the last month worrying about the Dodgers' lineup, given it seemed we lost more than we gained this off-season through trades and free agency (gone: Trea Turner, Justin Turner, Tyler Anderson, Cody Bellinger; joined: JD Martinez, Noah Syndergaard, Miguel Rojas). And with the Dodgers passing on all four free-agent shortstops available in this year's off-season (Trea Turner, Dansby Swanson, Xander Bogaerts, and Carlos Correa), all eyes were on Gavin Lux as our 2023 starting shortstop. We would need Lux to hold down the infield, with prospect Miguel Vargas coming up to start at second base, and only the light-hitting Miguel Rojas on the depth chart for short.

And then came yesterday, with Lux going down in a heap in only the third spring training game this year. Torn ACL and LCL, so he's gone for the season. And probably with it goes the Dodgers' chances to win the NL West.

It was already going to be a close race in the NL West. I heard Buster Olney picking the Padres, who have spent a ton of cash to lock up Boegarts and re-sign Manny Machado this off-season, along with dipping into the coffers for Yu Darvish, on top of already having Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis. I'm not complaining--it's not like the Dodgers haven't spent money to build our own lineup (except for this off-season, though the Trevor Bauer arbritration ruling really f'd our payroll this year as well).

But a 22-game gap (the margin in 2022) in the West seemed a pretty big hill to climb in one season, so I was still picking the Dodgers to win the NL West in 2023. Now, I'm not so sure if this division is ours for the taking.

And of course, Lux's injury came against the new-rival Padres. Though in other news, the Padres lost Joe Musgrove yesterday, when he dropped a kettlebell on his toe.

Maybe this year will be a war of attrition.

NLDS Game 4 Thread: Oct 15 @ Padres, 6.37p

Anderson vs. Musgrove.

A 22-game lead in the regular season doesn't matter for shit, now that we've dropped two straight in a best-of-five series, and are facing an elimination game way earlier than we had expected in this postseason. David is actually going to slay Goliath. The Dodgers hadn't really been challenged all year during the regular season, so let's see how this team fares when the stakes are actually meaningful and our backs are against the wall.

That said, I'm not expecting much. Our bats are now 0-for-17 in the last two games, and we have not scored a run against this Padres bullpen in the entire series. It's easy to point the finger at Will Smith, 0-for-4 last night and choker in multiple run-scoring opportunities this whole series. But the fact of the matter is that Chris Taylor (0-for-4 with 2 Ks) isn't much of a replacement for the listless Cody Bellinger; Mookie Betts (1-for-3 last night) is batting .182 in leadoff; Justin Turner is batting .100 this series; and Trayce Thompson (1-for 3, batting .111) is also punchless.

Dodgers pitchers are getting maligned here, especialy with Tony Gonsolin's four-out starting performance in Game 3. But six arms only let two runs cross the plate last night in Game 3. This is about our lack of offensive performance when the presure is on--and we can't score more than one run all game.

This is bad. I'm still drunk while writing this post. I'll probably stay this way through Game 4.

NLDS Game 3 Thread: Oct 14 @ Padres, 5.30p

Not the rally fowl we needed in Game 2.

Tony Gonsolin vs. Blake Snell.

After a deflating Game 2 home loss, the Dodgers head down to Petco Park with the potential to not play another game at Dodger Stadium this year. It's that terrifying, Dodger fans! And though I'm actually feeling more zen than I did before Game 1, I can't say that I'm feeling very positive.

Mookie Betts is 1-for-8 this series in the leadoff spot. Trea Turner is making errors or bad judgment calls in the field. Will Smith choked in two key situations to score runs in Game 2. Trayce Thompson and Cody Bellinger are chasing each other for the "most strikeouts" title. And the Dodgers went 0-for-8 with RISP in Game 2, and are 3-for-16 in this series.

Yes, our bullpen has been pretty sharp, with the exception of Brusdar Graterol, who needed a lucky comebacker and out at home to prevent further damage from his one-dimensional performance on Wednesday. But the Padres bullpen has been better, keeping us scoreless across both games. We've now ceded the advantage of the Wild Card round bye as well as home-field advantage. And we're having to start a guy who won't even last five innings, given his recent return from the IL.

I'm feeling like our goose is already cooked. Let's hope I'm wrong.

NLDS Game 2 Thread: Oct 12 vs. Padres, 5.37p

The Dodgers' Chris Martin seals the NLDS Game 1 victory, as Padres tears rain from the heavens. (hat tip, SoSG AC)

Clayton Kershaw vs. Yu Darvish.

The Dodgers eked out a win in NLDS Game 1, which was critical not only because the Game 1 winners go on to win the five-game series 71% of the time, but also because that was the only game in which the Padres' rotation was hampered by the Wild Card round last week against the Mets. But with this game, the Padres' rotation flips over...to former Dodger Yu Darvish, who was dominant against the Mets in WC Game 1 (7.0 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 4 Ks and 0 BB). Darvish is 3-5 against the Dodgers in 10 starts, with a 2.47 ERA.

Clayton Kershaw takes the mound for the Dodgers, and he is 23-9 lifetime against the Padres across 45 career starts, with a 2.03 ERA. Kershaw will have the weight of his recently-redeemed postseason record, blah blah blah. I'm worried less about Kersh and more about the six-through-nine in this lineup, who combined for a shitty 1-for-13 with 5 Ks in NLDS Game 1 (Bellinger, who had 2 Ks, looked absolutely lost up there).

Look, I know all the talk is about the Dodgers owning the Padres after going 14-5 against them this season. But NLDS Game 1 evidences that the Padres are a lot more talented than that record would show. We've got to have our guard up--and that means taking good at bats (I'm talking to you, Cody).

I don't want to go to Petco Park with a split. Let's get this Game 2 win, Dodgers!

Post-NLDS Game 1: Clevinger Bails Out The Dodgers

This photo is not from this game, because Fernando Tatis is suspended.

DODGERS 5, PADRES 3

Oh sure, the Dodgers took Game 1. But that was only because the Padres, crippled by the Wild Card Round, had to pitch Mike Clevinger in Game 1. Clevinger gave up five runs in his three innings of work, and it was very fortunate that those five runs held up, because we were shit against the San Diego bullpen.

Julio Urias was good, but not great, in this Game 1 start. Give innings, but 3 ER: not a quality start for him, especially watching his mortality in the fifth (his final inning). Evan Phillips came in for a high-leverage sixth inning, and Doc made the right choices with Alex Vesia, Brusdar Graterol, and Chris Martin to close out the win.

Credit Trea Turner with his first-inning solo HR for opening this up; Will Smith with two huge doubles and an RBI; and Max Muncy and Gavin Lux for RBIs on their own. But Mookie Betts was 0-for-4; Justin Turner and Cody Bellinger were 0-for-3--and we couldn't do anything against the four Padres relievers that came in from the third inning onward.

That's going to have to change if we want to progress in this postseason. For now, I'm going to drink my last beer...and make sure I have enough for tomorrow and the rest of this series.

2022 NLDS Game 1: Oct 11 vs. Padres, 6.37p

This postseason, we’re playing for more. #WinForVin pic.twitter.com/dzgthlayGu

— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) October 11, 2022

Julio Urias vs. Mike Clevinger.

The Dodgers watched the Mets and Padres play a full three-game series, and now host San Diego in a best-of-five series. All the talk has been about how the Dodgers are 14-5 against the Padres this year, but this Padres team looked a lot better versus a 101-win New York Mets team: Jurickson Profar and Juan Soto each batted .333 at the top of the lineup; Trent Grisham mashed a 1.917 OPS (and a .500 batting average) from the eight-hole; and even Josh Bell woke up his power bat (Manny Machado, as well). Not to mention, both Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove had great starts for the Padres in their two victories.

The Dodgers? Well, they've been taking some time off, which means that our pitchers are rested, but our bats may be rusty. And don't forget that Max Muncy, though hot at the end of the season, ended the year batting .196; Cody Bellinger slumped his way to a .210 batting average; and Chris Taylor, if he makes the postseason roster, is battling some neck issues.

Yeah, I'm pretty nervous. I may be at the game. Or I might be biting my nails at home for this one.

Urias To Start Game 1; Kershaw To Start Game 2

With today's news that Urias will start Game 1, the Dodgers are basically going all-in on winning these first two games at home. If the series goes long, Kershaw's only appearance of the series would be Game 2 without pushing him on short rest--not a good option given his injury issues this season.

Kershaw is 12-3 this year with a 2.28 ERA. Kershaw is 1-0 with a 0.75 ERA this year across two starts versus the Padres; he is 23-9 with a 2.03 ERA career against San Diego (45 starts).

Urias, 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA against the Padres this season, is 6-1 with a 2.19 ERA against San Diego across 15 lifetime appearances (10 starts). Urias, a Cy Young contender this year at 17-7 this year, definitely deserves the Game 1 start.

But man, I'm nervous.

So, Padres It Is.

Padres win Wild Card Game 3, 6-0

I suppose this is the better of the two possible NDLS opponent outcomes, given our 14-5 record against them this season. And if nothing else, this makes the travel schedule a bit easier--especially important if the NLDS goes long, since there is no travel day between Game 4 and Game 5.

But my hope is that it doesn't get that far. Joe Musgrove, inspected Sunday but not found to have any illicit substances on him, was masterful in shutting down a potent Mets lineup that lit up the Padres on Saturday night. Yu Darvish looked good in Game 1. And Josh Bell finally awakened in this series.

The Dodgers have been playing simulated games just to stay fresh. I suppose the layoff was good for our starting pitchers (and given the alternative of playing a best-of-three series, I'm glad we had a bye). But this isn't going to be an easy series.

I'm nervous.

Games 157-162 Thread: Sept 30-Oct 5 vs. Rockies

Fri 30 7p: Kershaw vs. Kuhl
Sat 1 6p: Grove vs. Freeland
Sun 2 1p: Anderson vs. Marquez
Mon 3 7p: Gonsolin vs. TBD
Tue 4 7p: Urias vs. TBD
Wed 5 1.20p: Kershaw vs. TBD

Baseball is all about tradition, and now it's time for the traditional end-of-season six-game series. The Dodgers' magic number for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, including the World Series, is down to 1 (with six games to play), so my guess is that the rotation doesn't exactly play out as planned. I'm looking forward to seeing how Tony Gonsolin does on Monday in his return from the IL.

This series will also be the last audition for Chris Taylor, Trayce Thompson, Cody Bellinger, and Joey Gallo; it's likely that only two of those four will make the postseason roster (only Mookie Betts is a solid outfield lock), with the other two being cut (hopefully not like the movie poster up there). But knowing the Dodgers, there will be more injuries between the end of September to the final postseason game--so we've gotta take a close look at everyone this series. Buckle up, Dodger fans!