Opening Series Thread (Games 1-4): Mar 30 - Apr 2 vs. Diamondbacks

Thur Mar 30 7p: Julio Urias vs. Gallen
Fri Mar 31 7p: Dustin May vs. Kelly
Sat Apr 1 6p: Clayton Kershaw vs. Bumgarner
Sun Apr 2 1p: Noah Syndergaard vs. Davies

For the first time in a long time, the Dodgers enter this season without a groundswell of optimism, thanks to a largely somnambulent offseason where the Dodgers lost more WAR than any other team, driving them to a overall net WAR loss of -11.5. As fivethirtyeight.com states, this has driven many projection models and pundits to sound the alarm bells for the Dodgers, and though they have the highest uncertainty in 2023 win projections, some (like ESPN's Buster Olney) pick the Dodgers to not even finish on top of the division at year's end (Olney picked the Padres to win the 2023 World Series).

It's also not clear how all of MLB's rule changes will affect the Dodgers (let alone any other team in baseball). The pitch clock should help Dodgers pitching, most of whom tend to be quick operators. Banning the shift should help lift Max Muncy's batting average, not to mention highlight the defensive skill sets of new pickup Miguel Rojas (our starting shortstop, since Gavin Lux is out for the season) and rookie Miguel Vargas (who couldn't swing the bat for most of spring training due to an injured hand). And I'm still on the fence on whether the larger bases will really drive more stolen bases--the risk of injury to a runner is still a pretty major deterrent individually, even if teams or their statisticians may want it--but figure the bigger bases might be a benefit to the run-happy Dodgers (9th in the MLB last year for team SB), even with the departure of speedsters like Trea Turner and Cody Bellinger.

But let's get back to that WAR calculation with just some pure math. Sharpen your pencils! The Dodgers won 111 games last year, so with a net loss of -11.5 WAR, so that puts us as 99 wins for 2023. The Padres won 89 games last year, and even with their vaunted lineup of Juan Soto, Xander Boegarts, Manny Machado, and the eventual return of PED-user Fernando Tatis Jr.--they also had a net WAR loss of -0.6, which would put them at 88 games for 2023. 99 > 88. Dodgers still win the NL West.

I was debating this issue with SoSG Dusty Baker at this past weekend's spring training game @ Camelback Ranch, and I still think a 22-game gap (from 2022) will be difficult to close in one season. The math says that we'll see half that gap close, but it's still an 11-game lead. Not to mention, I'm sure Dodgers GM Andrew Friedman has some tricks up his sleeve, should the Dodgers get out to a solid start in 2023.

And that 2023 start commences today. Let's go, Dodgers. I'll be there Sunday afternoon (along with SoSG Alex Cora), when it would be great if we were able to watch Thor complete a series sweep of the Snakes.