D-Backs cut 31 employees from front office (Arizona Republic)
Rockies agree to send Holliday to A's (coloradorockies.com)
Random rantings and ravings about the Los Angeles Dodgers, written by a small consortium of rabid Dodger fans. With occasional comments on baseball, entertainment, pop culture, and life in general.
D-Backs cut 31 employees from front office (Arizona Republic)
Rockies agree to send Holliday to A's (coloradorockies.com)
Backed by a game-opening three-run home run in the bottom of the seventh inning, Albert Pujols and the St. Louis Cardinals rose to the challenge and vanquished the Arizona Diamondbacks this afternoon, 12-3. This win clinched the NL West Division title for the Los Angeles Dodgers, even before they take the field for tonight's game against the San Diego Padres.
CONGRATULATIONS, LOS ANGELES DODGERS, YOUR NL WEST CHAMPIONS!
Earlier this week, I had posted that I would cede my vote for Andre Ethier for the Hank Aaron Award, and give it to Albert Pujols, should he and the Cardinals step up for this series. Well, Pujols stepped up, and so did the Cardinals. And here's my proof of upholding my end of the deal:
THANK YOU, ST. LOUIS, FOR NOT PHONING IT IN!
WAY TO GO, DODGERS!
Diamondbacks' Doug Davis (6-8, 4.25) vs. Cardinals' Joel Piniero (6-7, 5.21).
The last time we did a "Scoreboard Watching" post, it didn't work out so well for us. But we're going to try, try again (this time, with the starting pitching matchup in italics!) because:
Eight remaining opportunities, and all we need is one favorable outcome. Put on your Cardinals hats, party people!
The Dodgers have two games remaining at home against San Diego, and the Diamondbacks have two games remaining on the road against St. Louis. In other words, there are four outcomes remaining, before the Dodgers travel to San Francisco for their final series, and the D'backs head home for their final series against Colorado.
Four outcomes, and all we need is three of them to head our way. Not only would this allow us to clinch the NL West title at home on Thursday, which would be a great celebration and a wonderful tribute for Dodger fans, but it would also allow us to avoid the unpalatable situation of letting San Francisco spoil our division title achievement.
In past years, we've gotten the better of San Francisco. Nothing will probably ever compensate for Bobby Thompson's Shot Heard 'Round The World (cheating notwithstanding), but at least Solomon Torres' 1993 meltdown (referenced by Rob at 6-4-2 today) and Steve Finley's 2004 bat-flipping walk-off grand slam were pretty sweet recent memories for Dodger fans.
But the season's final series, with us at Pac Bell Park, is going to be a downer any way you slice it:
So I sincerely hope we can wrap things up over the next two days. We're going to need St. Louis' continued help--I'm happy to even sacrifice my vote for Andre Ethier for the Aaron Award, and cede it to the also-deserving Albert Pujols, should the Cardinals oblige today and tomorrow by beating the Diamondbacks)--but the Dodgers going out there and winning games is still necessary to take care of this at home.
Three positive results, in four potential outcomes. Come on, Dodgers (and Cardinals). You can do it!
Desperately trying to redeem myself from creating the noxious odor catalyzed by memories of New Kids On The Block, I broke out Springsteen's "Magic" album for a spin. And as I listened to the words in this song, I found myself thinking of all the different ways that the Dodgers will lose our slender two-game lead in the final six games of the season.
I'm a worrier. I am paid to worry about these things. And I know that the logic would say otherwise, that the Dodgers' PECOTA playoff odds have only marginally fallen from a peak of 99.0% to the current 91.7%. Jon Weisman attributes the stomach-churning uncertainty to ebb and flow rhythms, implying a rationale for calm. And veterans like Greg Maddux steadfastly believe the Dodgers will eke this divisional title out:
Even a team as streaky as the Dodgers?
"This team had it when I got here. We had it when we lost eight games in a row [in August]," he said. "Usually, you know when you're going to win and the other team knows when you're going to win. When I was with San Diego, we were saying in June that the Dodgers would win it." "You know you're going to win," Maddux said of the first-place mind-set. "You just don't know what day."
Which is great and all, except now Maddux is with the Dodgers (and unfortunately not winning many games, I might add), and the Padres would like nothing more than to kick us in the nuts.
Yes, there are reasons why I'm worried, probably because the math itself doesn't convey any degree of true safety to me. The Dodgers' magic number of 5, with 12 possible outcomes remaining, means the D'backs' magic number is 9 (or even 8 to force a one-game playoff); the difference between 5 and 9 isn't that great. We need 5 of 12 outcomes to be Dodgers-favorable, but if we only get 4 of 12 favorable results, or 1/3 of the coinflips, we go to the one-game playoff. Where all bets are off.
It's reasonable to envision a scenario where we go 2-4 in our next six games, losing two games to San Diego at home and then losing two more up in San Francisco. If the D'backs can pull two more wins out of their final three games in St. Louis, and then take two of three from the Rockies in Phoenix, we would end the season tied up. Neither one of the Diamondbacks' opponents care about any rivalries, best reflected by Albert Pujols' limp 0-for-2 performance, including a clutch strikeout that one wouldn't tend to see from a solid .348 hitter.
On the flipside, both of the Dodgers' remaining opponents would love to stick it to us--especially the Giants, in their frequently-renamed ballpark, after having their fans suffer through a miserable season with nothing for which to root now that they've cleansed themselves of Orange Julius (the prolific juicer).
The Giants' interest in the rivalry was further evidenced in Friday's Dodgers-Giants game, where Giants manager Bruce Bochy, enjoying the cushion of a 7-1 lead in the ninth inning, came to the mound to replace Alex Hinshaw with Tyler Walker for the final out. For one measly out. With a six-run lead. Why go through this ridiculous charade, except to rub salt in the Dodgers' wound?
Up in Arizona, Brandon Webb is winning games again. Stephen Drew is smoking the ball all over the place. Meanwhile, the Dodgers can't plate a single run in 11 innings on Sunday, and opened the series Friday needing a home run from Pablo frickin' Ozuna to even get on the board.
Manny Ramirez, his long dreadocks cut almost to fit in his helmet, homered twice in the middle game of the Giants series. But what if it was an orange and black Delilah who did the shearing? After all, Manny was powerless in the bookend games!
Six games to go for both teams, none head-to-head, with a slight Dodgers lead that seems more fragile each hour (even in the hours where neither team is playing). I can't take the suspense, particularly since I keep getting visions of negative outcomes. I want to slap the back of neck and just ask, "So how does it end?"
Oh crap, there goes that redemption I sought, ruined by a horribly dated Phil Collins video.
Great.
Great sandwich.
Thought the Dodgers had it all wrapped up? Not so fast—the Diamondbacks have won seven of their last eight, while the Dodgers just dropped two of three to the Giants.
The Dodgers' magic number remains at 5.
Their lead over the Diamondbacks is 2.0 games.
Each team has six games remaining.
Enjoy your week, people!
Tim Lincecum (17-3, 2.43) vs. Randy Johnson (10-9, 4.11), 6.40p, Chase Field. Showdown in the desert, the Snakes cognizant that we held serve today in a 12-inning squeaker, which dropped the Dodgers' magic number to 7.
Frank McCourt is already drooling all over the carpet, salivating about the postseason, albeit more for the incremental revenue than for the glory, honor, and tribute to this great team, this wonderful city, and these incredible fans.
But we're not talking about it here at SoSG, not until it's a done deal. No playoff matchups, no prospective opponents, no schadenfreude about other teams' evaporating hopes. After all, in past seasons, the schadenfreude was directed at us.
There's still 11 games left, and a magic number of 8. Games need to be won.
For what it's worth, Tommy Lasorda agrees:
"We haven't done anything until we clinch it," he said. "We're not going to talk about something we don't have. When the season is over and we've been declared the No. 1 team in the National League West, we've done something."Lasorda was reluctant to talk much about a possible Freeway World Series because the Dodgers haven't yet ensured a postseason berth.
Tommy went on to say that if that little red check engine light is on, they'll tell you why it's on, for free.
The Dodgers gained a game over the weekend by winning the series against the Rockies two games to one, while the Diamondbacks lost its series against Cincinnati one game to two.
From the Dodgers' perspective, things were rolling in games one and two at Coors Field, thanks to timely hitting, great starting performances from youngsters Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw, and solid games from the bullpen. Most notable in this was Cory Wade's performance Friday, in which he entered with the tying run at the plate and a runner at second, and got the ground out to end the threat, before coming out again in the eighth inning to dispatch the side without incident.
The Dodgers' only loss came today in which the team seemed determined not to let pitcher Greg Maddux get sole possession of eighth place on the all-time victories list. Despite a gem of a performance by Maddux, the Dodgers fell in 10 when Hong-Chih Kuo finally let the only run of the game in to score for the Rockies (that's right, the Dodgers were strangely shut out at Coors Field).
But the Dodgers' loss ended up not costing the squad any ground in its NL West hunt, as the Diamondbacks ended up falling to the Reds hours later, 2-1. What's amazing about this is it marked the second straight game that the Snakes dropped to the Reds in extra innings--this, after dropping two of three in its prior series in San Francisco in the ninth inning (AZ was swept by SF). Arizona is truly snakebitten here, having lost 15 of its last 19, with the "surging Giants" are coming into Phoenix for four games.
Dodger fans had gotten so used to a September swoon that it's sort of strange to see this not happening to us for a change. We remain 4.5 games ahead of Arizona.
The Dodgers, meanwhile, play four in Pittsburgh against a Pirate team that just swept the St. Louis Cardinals virtually out of postseason contention. Former Dodger Andy LaRoche went 3-for-4 Sunday but is batting .175; I'm sure both LaRoche brothers will be primed for revenge starting Monday.
So where does this weekend leave the Dodgers? Our magic number is 10, with 13 games to play (AZ has 14). Our odds of making the postseason are now up to a crazy 98%. And the threat of seeing Andruw Jones in another lineup has finally subsided.
But I'm not comfortable at all, not yet. As Jon wrote Friday, Division leads come and go. Stay vigilant. True that. Let's get this divisional title secured, Joe Torre, and then you can go make all the crazy lineup decisions you want until the postseason starts...
With a three and a half game lead on the Diamondbacks and only 16 games left to play, 10 wins in our last 11 games, and a 93% chance of winning the NL West, it would be easy to start thinking that the playoffs are a certainty, the postseason a lock. Here come your 2008 NL West Champion Dodgers, right?
Well, the Dodgers aren't thinking about the playoffs (at least, the unselfish ones aren't). And neither am I, and here's why:
So no, I'm not planning for the playoffs just yet, and I'm certainly not breathing easy. Seven games left on this roadtrip, Dodgers--let's keep playing ball hard, like we've done all September!
From his blog:
This race is like a couple of 102-year-old guys who are trying to see who can go the longest without dying.
According to Sean McAdam, the NL West schedule doesn't help the Dodgers down the stretch:
The Diamondbacks and Dodgers will play head-to-head in the final weekend of August (in Phoenix) and in the first week of September (in LA); after that, they're on their own.
The split after the final meeting favors the D-backs, who will play 10 on the road and 10 away from home while the Dodgers have just six home games among their final 19. NL West: In the Division That Nobody Wants To Win, there isn't much room or margin for error.
All the more reason why we have to win now, baby.
Matt Cain. Tim Lincecum. Jake Peavy. Greg Maddux. (Tall) Chris Young. Jeff Francis. Brandon Webb. Dan Haren. There are many quality pitchers in the NL West this season, meaning the Dodgers will play a lot of series like their first against the Giants—in which the Dodgers left a total of 28 men on base. Stranding 28 might get it done against the Giants, but it means third or fourth place in the standings if this trend continues against the rest of the NL West.
Actually, trend is an inappropriate word to use after just three games if we expect Russell Martin and Matt Kemp to shed their uncertainty at the plate. (Seeing Martin take the backwards K with the bases loaded last night was especially painful.) But recent history indicates that rarely do all the Dodger bats come alive at once—and that without a legitimate power threat (last seen in Adrian Beltre), the pitching staff will be counted on to keep games close.
While the addition of Andruw Jones and the emerging power of Kemp and Andre Ethier should prevent a repeat of 2003's power vacuum debacle, only timely hitting will prevent the Dodgers from having more one-run defeats than victories. And if those one-run defeats pile up, the clubhouse tension will make last year's tiffs seem like a love-fest.
From ESPN.com:
Barry Zito struggled in his first season with San Francisco after signing a big contract. His 2008 spring training debut was even worse.The left-hander gave up eight runs and seven hits against his former team Saturday, failing to get through the first inning in the Oakland Athletics' 23-5 victory over the Giants....
Few teams with playoff aspirations bring more questions into spring training than the Padres. Veteran acquisitions Jim Edmonds, Randy Wolf and Mark Prior have major health question marks surrounding them.
Wolf started Saturday's game against the Seattle Mariners in Peoria, Ariz., with mixed results. He mowed down Ichiro Suzuki and Jose Vidro to start the game, then struggled with his command, alternating pitches off the plate with some meatballs, including a fat first pitch to Mike Morse that produced a two-run single. Failing to get out of the first, Wolf yielded three runs on three hits and one walk in 2/3 of an inning.
Rich Lederer and Patrick Sullivan of Baseball Analysts broke down the Dodgers, and the NL West, yesterday. Jon Weisman and Russ Oates, a Rockies blogger, guest-starred (I suppose Daryl Hall wasn't available, so they went with Weisman).
Upshot is that the Dodgers have a lot of upside, but are not predicted to win the division. It's a long post, but here's the banter on the boys in blue:
Jon: Chad Billingsley (138 ERA+) could become a staff ace as early as this season. That would be a huge help to a team that doesn't know exactly who its fifth starter will be if Jason Schmidt or Hong-Chih Kuo aren't up to snuff in April (though quality candidates like James McDonald and Clatyon Kershaw are lurking in the minors). There's a lot of mystery centered on Japanese import Hiroki Kuroda, but another question is whether Brad Penny can maintain his high-flying performance (151 ERA+) despite a tumbling strikeout rate. If the Dodger starters can give quality starts, Takashi Saito and Jonathan Broxton form a great one-two combo in the bullpen. On the downside, Dodger defense can be spotty, depending who's in the lineup.
Rich: The Dodgers have a fab four (Derek Lowe, Brad Penny, Chad Billingsley, and newcomer Hideki Kuroda) at the top of the rotation and a fifth (Jason Schmidt) who could be a pleasant surprise if he can begin to earn a fraction of the more than $15 million per season that he is pulling down. Saito and Broxton, who make about $2.5M between them, have given the McCourts a much better return on their investment, combining to strike out 32% of the batters they faced in 2006 and 2007.
Russ: Penny finished an honorable third in the NL Cy Young voting last year and there's as good a chance as any that he'll repeat that finish for another year. Lowe was the victim of poor run support in many games last season, so an improvement in his W-L record isn't out of the question. Hiroki Kuroda isn't on the level of Daisuke Matsuzaka, but he should fit in nicely behind the previous two pitchers and Chad Billingsley. If Jason Schmidt bounces back from his shoulder injury and subsequent surgery, it could be a good season for the Dodgers.
How Joe Torre uses his bullpen will be interesting since he was questioned numerous times in New York for how he managed it there. As Jon and Rich said, Broxton and closer Takashi Saito are a lights-out combination.
Sully: Jon is our Dodgers guy here, so I am interested in his take. What do we think about this offense? It seems like there is talent all over the place on this roster. Can they make it work in 2008?
Jon: Don't laugh, but this is potentially the most dangerous group in the division. If Andy LaRoche and Andre Ethier win starting positions, one of them could easily be the No. 8 hitter in a lineup that could have everyone with an on-base percentage of .350 or more. (Last year, James Loney, Jeff Kent, Matt Kemp, Russell Martin and Ethier all reached that plateau; ex-Braves Andruw Jones and Rafael Furcal need comeback seasons to make it). Los Angeles won't have the most power in the NL West, but the pitching in this division is so strong that a team that can consistently battle offensively might have the best weapon.
Rich: If Joe Torre puts his best eight on the field everyday, the Dodgers should have one of the best offenses in the division and maybe the league. I'm less concerned with the youngsters like Martin, Loney, LaRoche, Ethier and Matt Kemp as I am with the veterans such as Kent, Nomar Garciaparra, Jones, and Juan Pierre. How goes the 40-year-old Kent and Jones, coming off his worst season ever, will go a long way in determining how goes the offense.
Russ: Signing Jones could be a huge boon for the Dodgers, but is it likely for him to rediscover his power with the Dodgers? Having a competition between Ethier and Pierre should hopefully improve the Dodgers. Russell Martin offers the best offense out of all the starting catchers in the division, but Joe Torre could give him a few more games off after catching 145 games last season. The competition at third between LaRoche and Garciaparra will be good for the younger LaRoche.
Sully: This seems like the team in Major League Baseball whose Manager could make the biggest impact. The personnel is there. The question is whether Joe Torre can optimally deploy the resources at hand. Sully: Switching gears, what do we make of the Los Angeles Dodgers? The run prevention side does not seem to be a problem given the team's bevy of young, durable arms. The Dodgers had an ERA+ of 109 last season and it is hard to see them falling off too far from there (if not improving).
And the predicted divisional finishes:
Rich: I like Colorado, followed by Los Angeles, San Diego, Arizona, and San Francisco. The Diamondbacks will be closer to first place than last although that says as much about the Giants as anything else.
Jon: I don't think Colorado or Arizona got lucky last year. despite what others might say. There's no reason either of the two couldn't win. But thanks to their addition of Haren to a rising young team, I think the Diamondbacks deserved to be slotted first right now. And given what full seasons from Kemp, Loney, Jones, Billingsley (in the rotation) and maybe Ethier and LaRoche could mean for the Dodgers, I'm gonna put them close behind in second. (Maybe this year, Martin blocks the plate against Holliday in a one-game playoff with the Rockies.) San Diego follows in fourth place, with San Francisco fifth.
Russ: Same as 2007: 1. Arizona 2. Colorado 3. San Diego 4. Los Angeles 5. San FranciscoSully: [...] As for my predicted order of finish, I am going with the D-Backs (their offense comes alive this season), then LA, San Diego, Colorado and (big, big gap) San Francisco.
Do not weep for San Francisco, Dodger fans.
Enough with the Barry Bonds hatred introspection, which I suppose I'll just add to the list of things to bring up to my therapist.
ESPN's Jayson Stark has a nice piece getting us all psyched up for pitchers and catchers reporting to camp, and (no surprise), he mentions the Dodgers and their rivals many times:
Most Intriguing Story, #3: Didn't this used to be Dodgertown?--Say it ain't so. No more spring training drives down Duke Snider Street or Vin Scully Way? No more open-air dugouts? No more street lights disguised as giant illuminated baseballs on a pole? No more living legends leaning against the batting cage on the same, coconut-tree-lined field where Branch Rickey and Walter O'Malley once presided? Progress has never been more overrated than it will be this spring -- when the Dodgers vacate their hallowed, historic spring home of the past six decades.
Having never been to Vero Beach, I have to say I'm split on this. The LA Times reporters seem to have been pressured by the McCourts into writing a cavalcade of "good riddance" pieces trashing the historic spring training site (which as a conspiracy theorist I found both odd and extremely convenient, even at the risk of impugning Ross Newhan with whom I usually agree). But it will indeed be nicer to have the Dodgers' spring training camp closer to Los Angeles next year.
And if everyone is up in arms about losing the street names (Stark is not the first person to lament the loss of all these street names around the Florida facility), why don't we just build a couple of new streets and move the street names? Doesn't seem that difficult to me. Heck, Frankie can even stand to charge higher parking fees for those who want to park on Vin Scully Way. It's a win-win!
Poll tidbit: The Mets got 14 votes from our panelists. The D-backs got 10. And no other NL team got more than three.Most Improved Team: 1) Mets, 2) Diamondbacks, 3) Cubs--Here's how much of a difference maker Johan Santana is: Before the Mets traded for him, they were viewed as one of the National League teams that had done the least to get better this winter. But drop the best pitcher of his time into this mix, and people start changing that tune, faster than you can say, "Whatever happened to Deolis Guerra?" Can one player really make that much of a difference? Sure. When he's this player. Heck, the Twins went 105-47 when Santana started over the past five years (and only 335-323 when he didn't). So the Mets might go undefeated when he's out there.
No one thinks the Dodgers have improved, which makes me wonder if this poll was taken before the Mark Sweeney signing.
Poll tidbit: All you need to know about this free-agent market is that five players got votes for best and worst signings: Hunter, Francisco Cordero, Pedro Feliz, Eric Gagne and Andruw Jones. Best Free-Agent Signing: 1) Kosuke Fukudome, Cubs (4 years, $48 million); 2) Hiroki Kuroda, Dodgers (3 years, $35.3 million); 3) To quote one exec, "Was there such a thing [as a good free-agent signing] this winter?"--What a nutty winter. Once we'd finished disqualifying free agents who re-signed with their old teams in this category, the only free agents who mustered any real enthusiasm from our poll voters were guys who came with their own translators. Not that anyone is sure that Fukudome is going to generate the same productivity or electricity as some of his Japanese predecessors. But his left-handed bat is a perfect fit for the Cubs. And we're betting that if there are any curses out there he's familiar with, at least they have zilch to do with goats.
The pressure's on, Andruw. Hope you didn't subsist on donuts and beer dring the off-season.
Poll tidbit: Rowand would never have shown up on this list if he'd gotten, say, a three-year deal. But those fourth and fifth years, which the Giants so charitably guaranteed him, allowed him to edge Cordero, Gagne, Jose Guillen and Jones for that prestigious No. 3 ranking. Worst Free-Agent Signing: 1) Carlos Silva, Mariners (4 years, $48 million); 2) Scott Linebrink, White Sox (4 years, $19 million); 3) Aaron Rowand, Giants (5 years, $60 million)--So many choices for this award. So few places to rank them. But in a category in which 17 (count 'em, 17) different players got nominated, the Silva and Linebrink signings squashed the rest of the field. It's a great country when a guy like Silva -- who hasn't had a winning record since 2005 and has struck out fewer hitters over the past three years than Jake Peavy struck out last year -- can rake in 48 million bucks. But as a whole, no category of fat contracts seemed to offend our panel more than excessive bullpen contracts. And $19 million for Linebrink, whose opponent OPS has swelled from .583 to .678 to .742 over the past three years, made him the bad-bullpen-contract poster boy of 2008.
Hey, the Giants got a mention!
And have you stopped to realize that Barry Bonds is not on any team's roster? No one wants the all-time home-run leader, one year after he set the record? No one wants the extra attendance virtually guaranteed by his at bats? No AL team thinks that, even in a DH role, he brings more positives than negatives? Seriously, this is shocking.
Hank Aaron was able to find a new team the year after he he broke Babe Ruth's record, and he played two more seasons and hit 22 more home runs. Why doesn't anyone want Barry? (This is a rhetorical question, one need not comment with the answer.) (Oh, what the hell, comment if you'd like.)
3/28 vs. DET (W, 8-5 (10)): Sax
4/2 vs. ATL (W, 6-5): AC
4/27 vs. WAS (W, 9-2): Dusty
5/17 vs. LAA (L, 2-6): Sax
5/31 vs. NYY (W, 18-2): Dusty, Sax
6/3 vs. NYM (W, 6-5): Nomo
6/15 vs. SF (W, 5-4): AC
6/17 vs. SD (W, 8-6): Dusty
6/18 vs. SD (W, 4-3): AC
6/22 vs. WAS (W, 13-7): AC, Dusty