Post-Game 120 Thread: Barved

BRAVES 4, DODGERS 3 (11)

Don Mattingly got killed on Twitter tonight. With the Dodgers leading 3-1 in the eighth inning, he pulled Chris Capuano, who had given up consecutive bloop singles. After Ronald Belisario gave up an RBI, Mattingly kept Beli in to face Jason Heyward, who's hitting .228 against lefties. Tie game.

Then in the top of the tenth, Shane Victorino bunted with Elian Herrera on first, eventually taking the bat out of the hands of Matt Kemp, who was intentionally walked. Did Mattingly call for the bunt? Hard to tell, but sometimes you're going to lose no matter what: Donnie batted Juan Rivera for James Loney in the eleventh, and Rivera — surprise! — hit into a double play.

Overshadowed by the road misery was Capuano's great start and Andre Ethier's two-run homer in the sixth. Dodgers are 5-3 on the current road trip; Giants are killing the Padres, so hello again, second place.

Spoilt Melk Lifts Dodgers' Chances

So Melky Cabrera up and gets suspended right in the final six weeks of a tight pennant race. And what might this mean for the Dodgers' chances of winning the NL West? Dan Szymborski of ESPN says, Monte Carlo scenarios say that the Dodgers are now in the driver's seat (link insider only):

The 2012 edition of Cabrera is a much different player than the one who signed a one-year, $1.25 million deal with the Kansas City Royals before the 2011 season. This Melky hit .305/.339/.470 for the Royals in 2011 and, after being swapped for Jonathan Sanchez this past winter, was hitting .346/.390/.516 for the Giants through Tuesday night's game.

As unpleasant as this news may be for Cabrera, it comes off as downright nauseating for the Giants, who are 64-53 and tied with the Los Angeles Dodgers for the NL West lead.

So, where does that leave the Giants, without their .906 OPS left fielder? With Nate Schierholtz gone in the Hunter Pence trade, Gregor Blanco becomes the obvious starting left fielder in Cabrera's absence, with Brett Pill likely to be the beneficiary of Blanco's reserve time in left and right. Using the ZiPS projection system, the Giants project to lose just under one win for the rest of the season, at 0.7 wins the rest of the way, thanks to the loss of Cabrera.

That may not sound like a lot at first, but in a tight race, with only 45 games to play, a single game can be the difference between winning the division and winning a much less valuable wild-card spot. Even worse, it could be the difference between winning the division and watching the playoffs from a couch.

To gauge the effect on the divisional race, I used a Monte Carlo simulation, along with ZiPS, to simulate the remaining games in baseball, both with the Giants having Cabrera and with the Giants losing him.

Before the news of Cabrera's suspension broke, the Giants -- a team with a bit more than the Dodgers -- projected to have a 52.6 percent chance at winning the division, followed by the Dodgers at 37.3 percent, the Diamondbacks at 10.1 percent, and the Rockies and Padres both having less than 1-in-2,000 chance.

Without Cabrera, San Francisco's odds of winning the division drop to 43.8 percent. The Dodgers, the team in the best position to take advantage of the Giants' loss, have their odds increase to 44.1 percent. That's right, Cabrera's absence for the rest of the season swings the division in the Dodgers' favor.

The new odds are great, but still not a slam dunk. Let's not let leave this to chance, Dodgers.

Melky Cabrera Suspension Just The Last In A Long Line Of Giants Transgressions

That's a sad milkman.

Sure, we took our lumps when Manny Ramirez was suspended for fifty games back in 2009 (a year where we still made it to the NLCS and finished first in our division). But Melky Cabrera's own 50-game suspension today only further perpetuates the long-standing tradition of steroid-taking Giants, as documented by the SF Comical's own Bruce Jenkins:

It's also time to consider the Giants' image - that is to say, rotten - when it comes to such tawdry issues.

Barry Bonds was at the core of the BALCO scandal, surrounding a federal government investigation into steroids in 2002, and will most likely be kept out of the Hall of Fame when he becomes eligible this winter. His name is so irrevocably attached to steroid use - during the period of his record-breaking home run feats for the Giants - that he may never be enshrined.

The Giants took a chance two years ago when they signed pitcher Guillermo Mota, who had been suspended 50 games for a positive drug test in 2006, and he became a repeat offender under their watch, drawing a 100-game suspension in May. Similarly, Hensley had a blemish on his record before joining the Giants, having been suspended 15 games for using performance-enhancing substances in 2005 while a minor leaguer in the San Diego Padres' system.

The Giants were hammered in the Mitchell Report, the result of a comprehensive investigation released in 2007. The circumstances and allegations varied, but the report's 89-player list included Bonds, Marvin Benard, Bobby Estalella, Benito Santiago, Armando Rios and Matt Herges for alleged transgressions during their stints with the Giants. Two other players linked to the Mitchell Report, Jose Guillen and Miguel Tejada, were signed by the Giants in recent years with full knowledge of their past.

74 suspensions

It's not that the Giants represent some wretched island of sin. There have been 74 suspensions related to performance-enhancing drugs in baseball this year alone - 70 of them in the minor leagues. But Cabrera's is by far the most significant, and it might surpass Manny Ramirez's 50-game suspension in 2009 (with the Dodgers) as the most damaging to his team.

Again, the Dodgers still charged to the top even with the Ramirez absence. The Giants could do the same. But Ramirez was taken out early (May 7), not in the stretch run. So let's see if this 2012 race dynamic changes now that Cabrera has left the building.

(And yes, the Giants do indeed represent a wretched island of sin.)

ESPN Pundits Think The Dodgers Are Still Short

So say David Schoenfield, Christina Kahrl, and Arash Markazi, in "NL West Dilemmas"

1. Will the Dodgers' deadline moves make the difference in the division or the postseason?

David Schoenfield, SweetSpot: Hanley Ramirez is certainly an upgrade for the offense, but I'm not sure Joe Blanton is that much of an improvement. Nate Eovaldi, Ted Lilly and Stephen Fife combined for a 3.48 ERA in the fifth spot, a number that Blanton will be hard-pressed to match. With no clear No. 2 behind Clayton Kershaw, it's the offense that will have to pick things up.

Christina Kahrl, ESPN.com: As weak as NL West lineups like the Rockies' have become, I just don't see the Dodgers' rotation being an asset beyond Kershaw and a collection of No. 4 or 5 types. Adding HanRam and Shane Victorino is nice, but that rotation doesn't let them afford luxuries like carrying James Loney, and trading Josh Lindblom is the self-inflicted wound people forget too easily.

Arash Markazi, ESPNLosAngeles.com: There's no question the Dodgers are still an ace short. That will come back to bite them in the postseason, where they will be shooting for an upset in every game that Clayton Kershaw doesn't take the mound. Nevertheless, the moves the Dodgers made in picking up Hanley Ramirez and Shane Victorino might just be enough to get them to the postseason, which is something not many thought was possible with this team before the season.

Yikes, that's not very reassuring.

Who Will Win The NL West (ESPN)

It's a valid question, right? Well, as of 680 votes, SportsNation says it's going to be the Diamondbacks (43%). But more importantly, the ESPN article lists nothing more than the remaining schedules of the three contending teams. Here is the Dodgers' schedule:

Los Angeles
vs. Cubs (3)
vs. Rockies (3)
at Marlins (3)
at Pirates (4)
at Braves (3)
vs. Giants (3)
vs. Marlins (3)
at Rockies (3)
vs. Diamondbacks (4)
vs. Padres (3)
at Giants (3)
at Diamondbacks (2)
vs. Cardinals (4)
at Nationals (3)
at Reds (3)
at Padres (3)
vs. Rockies (3)
vs. Giants (3) Key stretch: Ten-game stretch against Cards, Nationals and Reds, Sept. 13-Sept. 23, could be big factor in division title and wild card.

Well, we're a half-game back going into this series. Play on.

Post-Game 97 Thread: Beardlingsley

DODGERS 5, CARDINALS 3

What's weirder: seeing Ichiro in a Yankees uniform or Chad Billingsley with facial hair? Bills showed up to Busch Stadium with a fresh beard and a fresh arm today; we're not sure which was responsible, but he held the Cardinals to seven hits and one earned run, throwing 100 pitches over six innings. Offensively, the unusual suspects contributed: Luis Cruz hit a surprise three-run home run in the second, and Mark Ellis hit a two-run double in the seventh.

Ronald Belisario wobbled in the eighth, allowing a two-run homer to Carlos Beltran, but Kenley Jansen sewed it up for the save. Dodgers have won five straight. Giants are currently winning in San Diego, but at least their 1.5-game lead won't get any bigger.

Bills photo swiped from dodgers.com; Ichiro: Elaine Thompson/AP

Post-Game 96 Thread: Dodgers Stagger to Series Sweep

It may have been a little Mickey Mouse, but the Dodgers swept the Mets.

DODGERS 8, METS 3 (12)

Nate Eovaldi didn't go deep enough, the bats wasted opportunities, Javy Guerra still isn't right, the umps blew calls — and still the Dodgers emerged with a third straight victory at Citi Field. Don't let the final score fool you — the Dodgers were leading 3-2 in the ninth, when the Mets tied it up off Guerra.

It stayed 3-3 until the twelfth, when the Mets walked Andre Ethier to load the bases for Matt Treanor, who singled home two. Luis Cruz followed with an RBI and Adam Kennedy (!) cleared the bases with a two-RBI double.

Some notable oddities: Don Mattingly brought in Clayton Kershaw in the eleventh to sacrifice Ethier to second; Kershaw delivered. Rookie Josh Wall made his major-league debut in the bottom of the inning, allowing only a single to David Wright, who was caught stealing by A.J. Ellis. Wall picked up the win.

Giants lose, so their lead shrinks to 1.5 games. Dodgers travel to St. Louis next.

Post-Game 90 Thread: Error-Prone

PADRES 7, DODGERS 2

Turns out the Dodger defense felt so bad for Kenley Jansen that they committed FIVE ERRORS today:

• Mark Ellis threw one away on a tough DP chance in the fourth that led to a run
  
• Juan Uribe, starting at shortstop, threw one away in the fifth
  
• Jerry Hairston Jr. made two throwing errors (in addition to a great stop) in the Padres' three-run seventh
  
• Jamey Wright added one for good measure in the ninth.

So Chris Capuano is hung with the loss despite not giving up an earned run.

Of course the Giants won, so the Dodgers fall 1.5 games back. Let's see what we can do against the Phillies tomorrow.

The NL West Is Terrible!

Don't look now, but our Dodgers have the best record in baseball at 37-21. Our hated rivals but NL West comrades are tied with the Rangers for the second best record in baseball.

Yeah, that NL West sure is a weak-ass division. #EastCoastBias

Objects In Rear-View Mirror: How Do They Appear, Again?

From Steve Dilbeck's LAT blog over the weekend, guess who is lurking around the corner?

Ugh, the Dodgers have hit their first skid of the season at the same time the Giants are starting to play their best baseball. Talk about lousy timing.

The Dodgers have lost five consecutive games, enabling the Giants to cut a lead that was a season-high 7½ games down to four.

Things were getting a tad frustrating up in the Bay Area as the Giants started playing well, but with the Dodgers continuing to roll even without Matt Kemp, unable to put a dent in the National League West standings.

Now the Dodgers look a lot like a team playing with its B lineup, while the fans are starting to get just a little excited in the Halloween-colored land by the bay.

San Francisco Chronicle columnist Bruce Jenkins already smells blood in the water, predicting that by the time Kemp returns, the Giants will have caught the Dodgers and “I'd venture to say if Tim Lincecum's starts become an uplift, instead of a drag, the Giants win the division with ease.”

There are nightmare scenarios, and then there are visions of the Giants dancing on the Dodgers’ grave.

Look, although the Dodgers are playing with much less than a full deck, the truth is that the Giants' little run here is also aberrant. The Giants have moved into their cream-puff part of the schedule,which allows anomalies like Barry Zito lasting into the ninth.* (The Giants get to feast once more on the Cubs before heading down to SD for three). And unlike the Dodgers, the Giants' injuries aren't lineup-shaking: Pablo Sandoval is going to have to be focusing on his hand a lot more, and not just the "Rosie Palm" part. We'll be back to full strength in a month.

So anyway, a three-game lead may be time to panic, indeed. We could very well end up in second place by the end of the week, if not sooner. But don't fret. We just need to tread water through June (we are 1-2 this month so far), and then the big guns (and possibly, one big gut) will be back.

Over the past ten years, almost two-thirds of the teams leading their divisions end up winning their divisions. And if "making the playoffs" is the benchmark, our league-leading record plus the advent of a second wild card team only increases our chances of playing in the post-season.

Note: (*) Yes, I know that it happened in Zito's first game this year as well. But prior to that, the last time Zito had hit the ninth inning was August 29, 2009.

I Love Small Sample Sizes