The Arizona Diamondbacks, 2011 NL West champions, had the pleasure of eliminating their closest competition with a six-run first inning and a five-run sixth tonight. The Giants fail to even get the chance to defend their 2010 World Series championship. Worse luck next year, San Francisco!
AP photo
Ted Lilly (9-13, 4.37) vs. Joe Saunders (10-12, 3.88).
The Dodgers did the Diamondbacks a favor by beating up on the Giants, but now it's time to see how the NL West's best teams match up. "Lilly has not allowed more than three runs in eight consecutive starts," MLB.com tells us, but the D'backs have Justin Upton and Chris Young, so expect Lilly to give up a few taters. Hopefully of the solo variety. The Dodgers are 3-1 against Saunders this season, so hopefully 32/38 man Matt Kemp can resume his pursuit of Los Angeles baseball history. Welcome back home, boys!
Hiroki Kuroda (11-15, 3.18) vs. Madison Bumgarner (10-12, 3.37).
That's right; the suddenly-.500 Dodgers are helping usher the Giants out of the postseason. The Giants, losers of three straight, are in a position to be swept by the Dodgers today. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks have won four straight and are running away with the division with a 9.5-game lead. We're not playing for glory this season, boys, but we're playing for pride. Break out the brooms!
DIAMONDBACKS 5, ROCKIES 1
CUBS 7, GIANTS 0
Arizona is now a season-high five games ahead of SF. Way to finish the month off strong, Snakes.
AP photo
SNAKES 6, FRIARS 1
ASTORS 4, GANTS 3
The Diamondbacks are beating the beatable teams. They've won six straight, taking three of four from the Nats and sweeping the Pads. The Giants, on the other hand, are not beating the beatables. Their last nine games have been against the league-worst Astros and the last-place Padres, and they've gone 4-5. D'backs lead the NL West by four games; they get the Rockies next, while the Giants get the Cubs.
BRAVES 8, DIAMONDBACKS 1
ASTROS 7, GIANTS 5
What's worse than dropping four straight to NL East teams? How about losing three straight, including two to the lowly Astros? The second-place Giants are in scuffle mode, having failed to make up some easy ground so far this weekend. The Diamondbacks haven't been much better, but at least they've maintained a 2.5-game divisional lead.
PHILLIES 4, DIAMONDBACKS 1
BRAVES 1, GIANTS 0
Tim Lincecum pitched seven strong innings against the Braves, allowing only a Chipper Jones solo homer. Naturally, the Giants lost, 1-0. But the Diamondbacks couldn't take advantage in a rain-delayed game against the Phillies, so they stay 2.5 games ahead in the NL West. Next up for the Snakes: the Bravos. The Giants get the Astros. Will the lead last the weekend?
DIAMONDBACKS 3, PHILLIES 2
BRAVES 2, GIANTS 1 (11)
The NL races are getting interesting, folks! The streaking D'backs take a 3.5-game divisional lead, while the Braves have a 6-game lead over the Giants in the wild card race.
photo by Scott Cunningham/Getty Images
The Giants have won two in a row. Fortunately, the Diamondbacks have won six straight, including taking three of four from the Astros (what's the matter, D'backs — can't sweep the worst team in the majors?) and sweeping the Mets this weekend. The Giants caught a break, though: the Phillies were rained out yesterday, meaning the Diamondbacks get to travel to Philadelphia on Tuesday...and face Roy Halladay...then Cliff Lee. Lotsa luck, Snakes!
photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images
photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images
Kirk Gibson's team has done it again, beating the Giants 6-1 last night, tying them for first place in the NL West, and putting themselves in position for a sweep. The D'backs have won 12 of 17 to make up 4 1/2 games on the Giants, and while it's hard to root for a team other than the Dodgers to win the division, it's easy to root against the Giants. Good job, Snakes.
photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images
ESPN.com's Dan Syzmborski picked his most disappointing players in this 2011 season, and though there weren't any Dodgers on the list, there was one Giant. Who will go nameless, especially since the link is insider only. Oh, what the hell, you're twisting my arm, so here it is:
Tejada has done a solid job as a defensive shortstop, but the Giants hoped going into the year that he'd be respectable offensively as a short-term replacement for the departed Juan Uribe. Instead, Tejada's OPS is an abysmal .515 and, at age 37, the odds are good that Tejada has gone over the proverbial cliff. Already 15th in the league in runs with the benefit of two months of Buster Posey, the team needs to get more offense and has to seriously consider giving the surprising Brandon Crawford a shot.3. Miguel Tejada -- Preseason: .287/.319/.411, Update: .271/.301/.375
Vernon Wells of the Angels also makes it onto the list, btw.
With last night's surprising win in Philadelphia by a rookie pitcher making his first start, the Dodgers climbed into third place in the NL West, 5.5 games off the division lead. I know, it's difficult to think big given how this year has gone, what with all of our injuries and our less-than-inspiring 29-33 record.
But consider this optimistic note: in the main National League offensive categories, any players from the NL West are markedly absent, besides our two powerhouses Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier. As of last night, here are the main categories:
Batting average:
OPS:
Hits:
HR:
Looking at the expected win/loss record, the division-leading Giants are three games ahead of expectations, led by a crazy 17-8 record in one-run games. Chances are that this would equilibriate as the season progresses; last year, even as "magical" as last season's run was for the Giants, their one-run game record was about average (only Philly had a record that was way out of line). Arizona, one game off the division pace, also has a one-run game record that is close to 2:1; likely unsustainable over a full season.
The Dodgers do have the worst run differential in the division, that's true. But if we can get a couple more weeks of high-octane output, as we've seen in the last week or so--that might be just enough to keep us in contention as we head into the all-star break. It's not like the other NL West teams are mashing up a storm (in fact, the magnitude of the range between the highest and lowest run differentials is the tightest of any of the six MLB divisions).
Keep hope alive.
Sorry this is old news, but interesting data: in the April 4, 2011 Baseball Preview Issue, Sports Illustrated had an article titled "Bangers and Mash" which detailed statistical analysis called Pitch Type Linear Weights to determine what players were best against specific pitch types.
PTLW isn't a perfect stat. It doesn't take into account defense, among other factors, and it can be skewed by sample size. But it provides a general measuring stick of a hitter's performance, the way ERA does for a pitcher. The baseball analytics website FanGraphs features a stat called Pitch Type Linear Weights, which examines how productive hitters are against the most common pitches in the major league arsenal. In simple terms it's a measure of how successful a player has been against a particular pitch. That performance is expressed as the number of runs a hitter creates above (or below) the average level for a major leaguer. For example, Yankees second baseman Robinson Cano was rated as the most productive hitter in the majors against the slider in 2010: Per 100 sliders seen he created 4.47 runs more than the average big league hitter.
As you can imagine, there weren't many Dodgers on the lists (top five for each of six pitch types). But there, against the split-fingered fastball, shined Andre Ethier, whose 8.57 PTLW ranked fourth in the NL (Starlin Castro of the Cubs was first with a 16.34; Carl Crawford of the BoSox led the AL with a 26.90 (and look at what that's getting him this year).
It was nice to see ONE Dodger mentioned positively, especially when the NL West preview noted Rafael Furcal as the division's most prominent "Declining Star" ("There was a spring chicken in his locker one day during camp...but it certainly wasn't Furcal himself." And this was BEFORE last night's unfortunate news that Furcal has broken his thumb...), and then in the Dodgers' preview (slated third in the division), SI mentions that "a realistic goal for the team is to finish .500.
SI also pointed out that the Dodgers' outfield has a UZR of -48.5, signifying that our lack of defensive skill cost us almost 49 runs last season. Matt Kemp "led" the team with a UZR of -24, "the worst in the majors at any position."
SI also picked the Red Sox over the Giants in the 2011 World Series. Yay.
GAME 1: The game is tied 2-2. Top of the ninth, Matt Kemp on first, no out. The Padres have Heath Bell on the mound. It's like God hit pause on his DVR. Both teams are struggling to score runs in spacious Petco, but the Padres are slightly more frustrated, having stolen five bases and left ten men on.
GAME 2: Hiroki Kuroda (1-0, 3.86) vs. Dustin Moseley (0-1, 1.29).
Kuroda threw deep into his first start, which the Dodgers won 7-5 over the Giants. His seven innings helped out the bullpen, and let's hope he does it again today because Don Mattingly won't have too many arms available to him after yesterday's Ironman triathlon (rain/tarp/baseball).
Former Angel Moseley is subbing for the injured Mat Latos (shoulder). Moseley's only pitched a total of two innings in his career against the Dodgers, so there's little history there. But who knows what powers he gains just by donning a Padres uniform?
The Dodgers are still at .500 and have a run differential of -11, yet they could be in first place in the NL West by day's end. April showers may bring May flowers, but something something something Mike Blowers.
However, the Giants are right behind at #11. And the Rockies are 12th. And the Padres are 13th!
The NL West, where there's safety in (concurrent) numbers!
The good news is, the MLB Preview 2011 issue of ESPN the Magazine (April 4, 2011) showed up in my mailbox today. It's so new, i can't even find a picture of it on the ESPN.com website (which is quite unlike Time Warner's curious strategy of sending its magazines to airport newsstands three days before it arrives in home subscribers' mailboxes).
The bad news is, the outlook ain't good for the Dodgers.
Buster Olney picks the Giants to not only win the NL West, but to take the World Series over the Red Sox. Might he be sniffing the shoe polish that Brian Wilson affixes to his beard?
Here's Olney's hackneyed, surprisingly uninsightful take on the NL West:
The Giants and Padres battled until the final day of the season in 2010, but the race won't be nearly as dramatic in 2011. Why? Because San Francisco will have catcher [Oyster Pubes] and lefthander Madison Bumgarner on the Opening Day roster. They were two of baseball's most productive rookies in 2010, despite spending more than the first six weeks of the season in the minors. San Diego will again be better than expected because of its ability to prevent runs, but only two teams have the upside to challenge for the Giants: the Rockies, if Ubaldo Jimenez can continue to refine the art of pitching at high altitude; and the Dodgers assuming Matt Kemp's 2010 season (.249 batting average) was a bump on the road to superstardom. Kemp's yearlong romance with Rihanna ended in December, so we can assume he's no longer distracted by the pop star.
Are we still rehashing the Matt Kemp-Rihanna breakup? I mean, the LA Times' Dylan Hernandez has moved on, noting Kemp has showed up to camp in excellent shape, with new Dodgers coach Davey Lopes providing a positive influence. Ken Gurnick over at mlb.com notes Kemp's sharpened focus, as well.
Has Olney turned into Jay Leno, forced to rely upon outdated material?
Here's the predicted finishes, courtesy of Dan Szymborski of Baseball Think Factory:
Giants, 88-74
Rockies, 86-76
Padres, 83-79
Dodgers, 80-82
Diamondbacks, 73-89
Aim high, boys!
They also project the Dodgers' offense to be fourth in the NL West: "Power outage: not one starter is pegged to slug higher than .500 this season." On the slightly more positive side, the Dodgers' pitching ranks third: "This may be the year Clayton Kershaw enters the Cy Young conversation. Finally."
And one last bit from DIamondbacks pitcher Ian Kennedy: "Best looking fans? I don't know personally, but the bullpen guys say LA, and they have a lot of spare time."
At least we've got our good looks.
SoSG EK, you're gonna love this.
The WSJ ran a graph yesterday that mapped teams relative to their offseason moves, along two dimensions: on the x-axis, the volume of moves made (players gained + players lost); and on the y-axis, the quality of those moves (measuring WAR gained - WAR lost). It's an interesting exercise, albeit deceiving. First, the graph:
And you can clearly see the Dodgers, right in the middle. The only team close to us on the "quality of moves" scale is the Diamondbacks, with San Francisco right on the midpoint line. The Rockies are hiding behind the Reds, at a -2 net WAR, while the Padres are way down in the bottom right quadrant, doing the largest volume of moves, but diminishing their net WAR by almost -6.
The Orioles "won" the offseason, by virtue of WAR-accumulating moves like picking up Derrek Lee (+3.5 WAR) and JJ Hardy (+2.9) while only losing Kevin Millwood (-1.9). The Orioles' net WAR was an MLB-high +9.0. Said the WSJ, "While other teams made bigger splashes, the Orioles quietly reinvented heir infield. The changes should help them do much better than 66-96." Which would be true, except for the fact that the Orioles are in the AL East. I'm not buying this methodology.
In fact, here's what Scott Cacciola and Jared Diamond have to say about the Dodgers (no link):
14. L.A. Dodgers (+0.1) Key acquisitions: SP Jon Garland (1.4), 2B Juan Uribe (2.1) Key loss: C Russell Martin (2.9) Outlook: A case of quantity over quality. The Dodgers' nine additions probably won't help them improve on a sub-.500 season.
(Russell Martin's departure is probably overstated as a -2.9 net WAR move, right?)
So the Dodgers are still stuck right there in the middle. One can't use this graph to prognosticate 2011 results, since the data doesn't take into account the team's starting WAR. For example, the Orioles might have gained 9.0 WAR, but given their 66-96 finish last year, the incremental 75-87 record would have put them...still in fifth place in the division (fourth-place Toronto lost (-4.9) WAR this offseason but still would have finished 81-81).
So the Dodgers treaded water this offseason. The Padres lost (-6.5) in WAR, San Francisco lost almost a full win of WAR (-0.8), the Rockies lost -3.0, and the Diamondbacks gained 0.2. Bolt those stats onto our 2010 final standings, ladies and gentlemen, and we're still in fourth place in the division; maybe tied for third.
Sigh.
graphic by Alberto Cervantes / WSJ
Can't believe I missed this story, but Christina Kahrl of Baseball Prospectus ran the PECOTA projections and put the Dodgers second in the NL West, three games back of San Francisco (link insider only). Here's her writeup on the Dodgers:
Why they might win: Relatively quietly, the Dodgers assembled a rotation to contend by re-upping Ted Lilly and Hiroki Kuroda and adding reliable innings-eater Jon Garland. Their bullpen is deeper, younger and better than the Giants', which contributes to an initial projection for the league's best run prevention.
Why they might not win: Just three teams in the league are projected to post lower OBPs than the Dodgers' .322. Signing or re-signing all that pitching left few dollars for the lineup, and most of those were invested in Juan Uribe -- another low-OBP regular. If the Dodgers suffer yet another injury-plagued season from leadoff man Rafael Furcal, this bad situation could become grave overnight.
Player who could surprise: Closer Jonathan Broxton had an awful season in 2010, protecting the leads he was handed just 78 percent of the time. But thank Joe Torre for some of that: After a 48-pitch blown game against the Yankees on June 27, Broxton gave up almost two baserunners per inning and seven runs per nine for the remainder to the year. PECOTA is projecting a comeback with a 2.70 ERA, but we'll see how rookie skipper Don Mattingly handles his young closer's first setback.
Player who could disappoint: Depending on how you look at it, Matt Kemp could, at least relative to expectations of superstardom, by slugging .449 and belting 21 homers. James Loney will, but that's because he'll continue to be one of the worst-hitting regulars at first base, projected to hit just .276/.340/.399.Los Angeles Dodgers 87-75
BP also projected the Rockies in third with an 83-79 record, the Padres in fourth and the D'backs in the cellar. Not all hope is lost, however; the Dodgers have a shot at the Wild Card, too; looking across the NL, a 87-75 record would be tied with the Braves, projected to be second in the NL East to the Phillies. BP picked the NL Central-leading Cardinals to win with a similar 87-75 record.
In his divisional review of the NL West teams' offseason transactions, ESPN.com's Jayson Stark gave the Dodgers a B+ grade, the best of any NL West team:
BIGGEST ADDITIONS: Jon Garland, Juan Uribe, Matt Guerrier, Marcus Thames, Gabe Kapler, Tony Gwynn Jr., Blake Hawksworth, Ron Mahay, manager Don Mattingly.
BIGGEST SUBTRACTIONS: Russell Martin, Scott Podsednik, Reed Johnson, Brad Ausmus, George Sherrill, Jeff Weaver, Ryan Theriot, manager Joe Torre.
So whaddaya know. Thanks to a much-needed advance on their TV money, the Dodgers weren't paralyzed by their ownership debacle after all. So once he was freed from captivity, GM Ned Colletti burned up the old Transactions column all winter -- signing 11 free agents to big league deals and another 15 to minor league deals.
Best thing they did: Moved ultra-aggressively to bring back free agents Ted Lilly, Hiroki Kuroda and Vicente Padilla, while signing Garland for a mere one year, $5 million guarantee. So rotation depth -- a big issue last summer -- is now one of this team's biggest strengths all of a sudden.
Most debatable thing they did: guaranteeing three years and $21 million to Uribe. Lovable and clutch as he may have been for the Giants last year, he's never had an on-base percentage as high as .330 in ANY of his 10 big league seasons. And it's tough to identify his ideal position anymore. But the Giants weren't happy to lose him, if that means anything.
What remains to be seen: How the left-field jumble of Thames, Gabe Kapler and Tony Gwynn Jr. works out -- and, even more importantly, how Mattingly's managerial debut works out. This is a tough clubhouse. And this division leads the league in pitchers' duels, where running the game matters. So as astute and well-liked as Mattingly may be, he's in for the biggest challenge of his lifetime.
Grade: B+Los Angeles Dodgers
The Giants and Diamondbacks got the worst grades, each with a C-. The Padres got a C, and the Rockies got a B.
