2025 NLDS Game 3 Thread: Oct 8 vs. Phillies, 6p

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (12-8, 2.49) vs. Aaron Nola (5-10, 6.01).

Yoshinobu Yamamoto gets his second start of the postseason, following a clinching NLWC Game 2 in which he went 6.2 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 0 ER (thanks, Teoscar!) 2 BB and 9 Ks, to earn the victory. We've got a chance for Yamamoto to clinch another series tonight.

Aaron Nola gets the nod over Ranger Suarez, which is a little bit of a surprise:

Though Nola is the longest-tenured Phillie and certainly has a proven track record, he went just 5-10 with a 6.01 ERA in 17 starts this season. He missed three months from mid-May to mid-August due to a sprained right ankle and a stress fracture in one of his ribs.

I'm not sleeping on this one, though. Nola did see the Dodgers on April 5, 2025, in a losing effort (Dodgers won 3-1; Nola went 6.0 IP and gave up all three ER). He is 3-3 with a 4.31 ERA in 12 starts against the Dodgers, lifetime.

But Nola may just be a feint anyway, with Suarez rarin' to go. From the same mlb.com piece:

Thomson will undoubtedly have a quick hook with the Phillies’ season on the line, but even if Nola is pitching well, it’s possible he’s asked only to get through the Dodgers’ lineup one time.

Despite his struggles this season, it’s worth noting that Nola has typically navigated the opposing lineup pretty well the first time through. Opponents hit just .252 with a .693 OPS against Nola when facing him for the first time. That OPS jumped to .797 the second time through -- and 1.005 the third time.

Suarez also pitched three innings of 3 ER ball against us, on September 15, 2025, in a game the Dodgers lost 6-5 in 10 innings. He is 3-2 with a 3.64 ERA against the Dodgers across eight starts. But he pitches well in Dodger Stadium, which is one of his top-five tOPS+ stadium across his career (by comparison, Nola has a 95 tOPS+ at Dodger Stadium).

Coming home gives the Dodgers a chance to smoothen out some of those very rough fielding edges that we've seen for most of this postseason (I'm looking at you, Teoscar, Max, and Tommy). Not to mention, it would be nice to see Andy Pages have a good AB for a change.

Let's go, Dodgers!