Saturday, January 05, 2013

One More ESPN Top Ten: Dodgers Sixth Overall; Giants In Catbird Seat

Building off of Buster's more granular assessments, Olney came up with his overall top ten teams ranking for the 2013 season. And the Dodgers end up sixth (link insider only):

6. Los Angeles Dodgers

NL evaluator: "A tremendous rotation and outfield (if their health keeps), Adrian Gonzalez, Hanley Ramirez, a good bullpen -- and tons of money."

Ah yes, the money thing again. That's certain to be a common cliched harangue (though not a Harang) this year from the national baseball press (both Olney and that other guy).

But in fact, Olney got some yips over his choice of the Giants as the favored ones for 2013:

After the initial power rankings column was posted, with the Giants at No. 1, I got a lot of feedback from readers wondering why I had San Francisco at No. 1, rather than Washington or Detroit or the Dodgers or Reds. Some readers felt that given the questions about Tim Lincecum and other parts of the team, San Francisco doesn't appear to be as good on paper as some other teams.

In my opinion: After winning two titles in the past three years, they've earned the credit we should give them -- and it's evident that the Giants have become very adept at playing in close games, from the depth of their bullpen to the ability of manager Bruce Bochy to maneuver. They may not be as dynamic as the 1976 Reds or the 1927 Yankees, but they've been the best team in the National League playing in close games, and this cannot be dismissed as just luck; it's a trait.

Justin Havens of ESPN Stats & Information dug out these numbers:

In one-run postseason games over the past three years, the Giants are 8-1, which is in keeping with their regular-season success in close games. The Giants are 91-66 in one-run games over the past three regular seasons, which is the second-best mark by win percentage over that span (to Baltimore). It is first, however, in total wins.

Most Wins in One-Run Games (2010-12)

  • Giants 91
  • Reds 87
  • Twins 84
  • Phillies 82
  • Orioles 80

In total, the Giants have a .580 win percentage in one-run games over the past three seasons, while the other 29 teams cumulatively have a .497 win percentage.

I thought that the general rule was that one-run wins, like BABIP, would revert to the mean over time. I'm still thinking this is the Dodgers' division to win in 2013.


rbnlaw said...

Who the fuck is Buster Olney?

Paul said...

He's not the Buster you are looking for.

Paul said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
DodgersKingsoftheGalaxy said...

Of course it can be attributed to luck