Jumping on the Dodgers bandwagon, along with Aaron Boone, are ESPN.com colleagues Doug Glanville, Christina Kahrl, and Doug Padilla. All four of them have picked the Dodgers to win the 2015 World Series.
The Toronto Blue Jays were the trendy pick, with 12 of the 23 ESPN pundits selecting them as World Series winners.
Bear in mind, only Adrian Virk had picked the Dodgers six months ago, out of 14 pundits. Virk has since changed to the Blue Jays.
I'm obviously not optimistic about the Dodgers' bullpen these days, and in Jonah Keri's second-to-last recap of the major leagues on Grantland's "The 30", he doesn't leave much room for hope:
However, the biggest complaint from many fans isn’t necessarily directed at Mattingly, or even at the team’s relievers themselves; it has to do with the front office. After contending teams like the Cardinals, Blue Jays, Pirates, and others made aggressive trades for bullpen help at the deadline, why didn’t the Dodgers, eager to build and spend on depth everywhere else on the roster, follow suit?
It’s because Andrew Friedman & Co. have recognized the volatility of bullpens and decided not to invest big money in their own. After all, many of baseball’s best relief arms are young, homegrown, inexpensive pitchers once ticketed for the rotation who instead ended up dominating in relief (Dellin Betances, Trevor Rosenthal, Zach Britton), while many pricey free-agent bullpen acquisitions fail spectacularly.
That doesn’t mean it’s the right decision, though. Friedman isn’t running a shoestring budget like he was in Tampa, and smartly allocated money can still fortify your bullpen. Just look at the Astros: They spent actual money to address a troubling relief corps, and they’re reaping the benefits of having veterans Luke Gregerson and Pat Neshek to stabilize what’s now one of the league’s best pens. When the Dodgers outspend Houston and everyone else by tens and/or hundreds of millions, it’s odd to see them try to play Moneyball with a bullpen that caused so many problems in the playoffs.
Now, it’s possible that Baez, Garcia, & Co. form an effective bridge from the starters to Jansen, and Los Angeles finally breaks through and rolls to the World Series. But that’s not the point: By heading into the postseason with a teetering pen, the resource-rich Dodgers are opting for a chance they really don’t have to take.So, the underlying numbers do provide some reason to hope, but given last year’s playoff meltdown, the awful season-to-date run-prevention numbers, and the disaster over the past month, you can’t fault Dodgers fans for not feeling too hot about the current relief situation. [...]
This cannot end well (literally, given the bullpen can't close out our games).
Except for the fact that coasting to a division title didn't yield postseason results; yeah, I'm excited that ESPN.com's David Schoenfield ranks the Dodgers second out of all 30 MLB teams (only to the Nationals):
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
Big offseason moves: Hired Andrew Friedman as president of baseball operations and Farhan Zaidi as general manager; traded OF Matt Kemp and C Tim Federowicz to the Padres for C Yasmani Grandal, RHP Joe Wieland and RHP Zach Eflin; lost SS Hanley Ramirez to free agency; signed RHP Brandon McCarthy and LHP Brett Anderson; traded 2B Dee Gordon, RHP Dan Haren and SS Miguel Rojas to the Marlins for LHP Andrew Heaney, RHP Chris Hatcher, 2B Enrique Hernandez and C Austin Barnes; traded Heaney to the Angels for 2B Howie Kendrick; acquired SS Jimmy Rollins from the Phillies; acquired RHP Joel Peralta and LHP Adam Liberatore from the Rays for RHPs Juan Dominguez and Greg Harris.
Most intriguing player: Yasiel Puig, Year 3. Is this the year he remains consistent, cleans up the mistakes, keeps the power going and becomes an MVP candidate? Or does he settle in as a very good player? Either way, we'll all be watching.
Due for a better year: Clayton Kershaw ... in the postseason. Hard to top 21-3, 1.77 with Cy Young and MVP trophies. In just 27 starts.
Due for a worse year: Juan Uribe hit .300 for the first time since he was a rookie with the Rockies in 2001 and posted a career-high .337 OBP.
I'm just the messenger: The Dodgers spent a lot of money to bring in McCarthy and Anderson as their fourth and fifth starters. They're convinced McCarthy is capable of another 30-start, 200-inning season even though that was the first time he has reached either mark in his career (previous highs: 25 starts, 170 innings). Anderson is still a talented lefty when he gets out on the mound, but he has made only 32 starts the past four seasons. There isn't a lot of depth here. Joe Wieland and Juan Nicasio could be next in line. Erik Bedard has been invited to spring training. If Kershaw or Zack Greinke suffer a long-term injury, the rotation could have issues.
The final word: It's not often you see a 94-win team get such a big makeover, but the new regime is rebuilding on the fly. The Dodgers had to clear space in the outfield for rookie center fielder Joc Pederson and they had to get better defensively up the middle. They'll have a new middle infield -- a much better defensive one with Rollins and Kendrick. In fact, all of the Dodgers' moves were done in part to improve the defense, including catcher, where Grandal is rated as a good framer. A better pitcher than analyst, Greinke didn't give rave reviews to the moves. This is a good team, one that should coast to a division title.
Prediction: 93-69
I'll take it.
(Giants ranked 11th, well out of the top 10, with Joe Panik predicted to be much worse. Padres ranked 16th, Rockies 26th, and the Diamondbacks a woeful 30th.)
2015 projected wins are out, and the Dodgers are second only to the Nationals. A 2015 championship is basically in the bag:
The Nationals, who are 5-1 favorites to win the World Series at the Atlantis, top the sports book's season win total list at 93. The Dodgers, at 91, are the only other team projected to win more than 90 games.The Washington Nationals and Los Angeles Dodgers have the highest projected season win totals, and the Philadelphia Phillies have the lowest, according to numbers posted Friday at the Atlantis sports book in Reno, Nevada.
In fact, Buster Olney is pretty confident on that total (link insider only):
[I]t’s easy to forget that the Dodgers won the NL West comfortably last season, winning 94 in the regular season and finishing with a six-game margin. Sure, Clayton Kershaw had two lousy starts against the Cardinals in the postseason, but he's early in what looks to be one of the best pitching careers in history, and I wrote the other day about all the strong work the Dodgers have done in bolstering the infrastructure this winter.
And remember, when you consider what’s ahead for the Dodgers -- as with the Yankees and Red Sox and other high-budget teams -- you have to factor in the midseason boost they'll get before the trade deadline. If a move is needed to make them better, they’re going to do it, and the Dodgers have the wealth and the depth of prospects to make deals that small-market and mid-market teams don’t want to do. Cole Hamels? Johnny Cueto, if the Reds are out of contention? For L.A., anything is possible. The Padres should be better than last year, but the Dodgers have a really, really deep roster, and they’ve got Kershaw and Zack Greinke at the front of their rotation.Los Angeles Dodgers, 91 wins
Start booking those World Series accommodations now!
