Tuesday, September 30, 2025

2025 NL Wild Card Game 1 Thread: Sept 30 vs. Reds, 6p

Blake Snell vs. Hunter Greene.

The Reds may have backed into the playoffs with a loss in their final game and a 83-79 record (10 games worse than the Dodgers), but it doesn't matter now--they're on level ground with the winners of the NL West. And since anything can happen in the playoffs--the Reds have a 31.4% chance of advancing, according to Fangraphs--I'm already pretty nervous (as usual).

The fact that we're starting Blake Snell for Game 1 doesn't settle my stomach much, either. Snell, who missed almost all of the first four months of the season with assorted boo boos, did not pitch against Cincinnati this year.

Notre Dame Sherman Oaks graduate Hunter Greene pitched one game against the Dodgers this season, on August 25, 2025. He took the loss having pitched 5.0 innings: 6 H, 5 R, 3 ER, 2 HR (both by Andy Pages), 2 BB and 3 Ks. Michael Conforto, Freddie Freeman, and Will Smith all struck out against Greene, but Conforto and Freeman also had doubles against Greene before he exited, and Smith's walk against Greene in the bottom of the sixth (with none out and one on) chased Greene from the game.

Pages knocked in five runs in that game. I assume he will be in the starting lineup today.

And of course, this game marks another return to Dodger Stadium for former Dodger and 2024 World Series Champion, Gavin Lux. Lux, whose -0.2 WAR paled in comparison to (his replacement) Hyeseong Kim's 1.6 WAR, still had a respectable year, with a 97 OPS+ of .724 (relative to Kim's OPS .699 / OPS+ 95). So maybe trading Lux was a wash? He still has a mean ultimate frisbee forehand.

But the one to watch in Cincinnati's lineup has to be Elly De La Cruz, who played in every game for the Reds this year, batting .264 with a .777 OPS (109 OPS+, to lead the team). He mashes (a team-leading 22 HR), but also strikes out a lot (a team leading 181 Ks--which to be fair is six fewer than Shohei Ohtani). We need to keep him off the basepaths this series, or there will be no more plane rides for us this year.

(Lux photo: John Hefti-Imagn Images, from Sports Illustrated)

UPDATE 9.30 2p: Will Smith makes the NL Wild Card roster. Justin Dean grabs an outfielder spot, alng with Alex Call; Michael Conforto does not make the cut. Also, on the pitching side, Roki Sasaki makes the roster; Clayton Kershaw, who pitched the last game of the regular season, will not be on the NLWC squad (as has been widely reported for days now).

114 comments:

spank said...

playoffs is a new season. slate wiped clean. the championship goes through LA. lets fucking do this!

karen said...

No score after 1......Walking Dead Padres and Cubbys.

Steve Sax said...

Tigers win 2-1.

Padres up 1-0 through four.

karen said...

Suzuki ties it up with a solo. 1-1 B5.

karen said...

Kelly goes back to back with Suzuki. Cubs up 2-1.

karen said...

3-1 Cubbys B8.

karen said...

Going to the ninth Cubs up 3-1

Steve Sax said...

Michael Conforto does not make the NLWC roster. Updated GT.

Steve Sax said...

Cubs win, 3-1.

karen said...

CUBS WIN!!!!! CUBS WIN!!!!!

spank said...

Bye Week lost

karen said...

1-0 Damn Yankees T4.

karen said...

2-1 BoSOX T7!!!!!!

karen said...

Watching the Damned One's bullpen is a little like watching ours.

Steve Sax said...

Just put up a new post with a picture of the rally towel giveaway today. Hat tip to our favorite stringer!

Steve Sax said...

GAME 1 LINEUP

Ohtani DH
Betts SS
Freeman 1B
Muncy 3B
T Hernandez RF
Edman 2B
Pages CF
K Hernandez LF
Rortvedt C

Snell P

Steve Sax said...

Will Smith is not in the lineup. But Max Muncy is!

I'm a little surprised Kiké gets the start but I suppose that's gonna happen with Conforto not on the roster.

Let's go, boys!

Steve Sax said...

Here we go!

Steve Sax said...

I’ve got Nelson and Monday on as I’m grilling

Steve Sax said...

Strikeout and fly out. But here’s andujar.

Steve Sax said...

7-pitch first for Snellster

QuadSevens said...

Nice quick inning for Snellzilla.

Steve Sax said...

Greene’s first pitch is 101mph. That is just nuts.

karen said...

SHOHEI BABY!!!!

spank said...

shohei!!

Steve Sax said...

Shohei!!!

QuadSevens said...

Oh yeah!

Steve Sax said...

Shohei HR and Betts single

spank said...

Edman looks horrible. why is he in there? he cant pivot on that ankle

Steve Sax said...

Oh man. I didn’t see it, but we can’t have Muncy and Edman flailing up there

Steve Sax said...

Snell Ks De La Cruz for his second scoreless. Nice.

Steve Sax said...

Kike of course with a hit. Because it’s the playoffs

Steve Sax said...

Shohei Ks to end the inning.

Dammit

Steve Sax said...

Snell has traffic in the third.

QuadSevens said...

Snell wiggles off the hook with his 4th K of the night.

Steve Sax said...

Snell works out of it.

Let’s get some damn runs

Steve Sax said...

Betts flies to center. One out.

spank said...

TEO!!

karen said...

TEO BABY!!!!! 4-0 Blue.

spank said...

Edman!!

karen said...

Tommy Tanks goes back to back! 5-0 Boys

spank said...

well shut my mouth

spank said...

i guess shohei has called it a day after that first inning homerun. he's struck out twice since

spank said...

Snellzilla dealing fire today

Steve Sax said...

Teo with a second HR of the night!

spank said...

Teo again!!

QuadSevens said...

TEO X2!!

Steve Sax said...

Muncy: 0-for-2 with 2 Ks. Not good

Ohtani and Edman also have 2 Ks each, but each have a HR as well.

Steve Sax said...

6-0 LA through 5. Rojas replaces Edman at second.

Steve Sax said...

Snell with his 9th K, sixth scoreless inning!

spank said...

Shohei again!!

Steve Sax said...

OHTANI!!!

Steve Sax said...

Ohtani with a two-run HR, scoring Kiké.

8-0 LA

QuadSevens said...

454 feet!

Steve Sax said...

Gosh I can't wait to watch these highlights.

karen said...

SHOHEI (again!!). 8-0 LA.

Steve Sax said...

Four-pitch walk to Mookie. Still two out.

spank said...

a few more runs and we'll be tanner scott proof

Steve Sax said...

Connor Phillips tries to hit Mookie with ball four. Not cool.

karen said...

@Spanky.......We need 2 more to be Tanner Scott proof.

Steve Sax said...

Freeman with a ground rule double to advance Mookie to third, but Muncy Ks for a THIRD time to end the threat. Great.

Steve Sax said...

Two one-out singles put Reds at the corners, one out, T7. Snell at ~80 pitches.

Steve Sax said...

First career postseason start for Snell of more than six innings. I like it.

Steve Sax said...

Oh, maybe I don't like it. De La Cruz blows up the shutout.

Steve Sax said...

De La Cruz forces Steer at second, but Hays scores. De La Cruz to first.

Steve Sax said...

Sounds like it should have been a double play? Dodgers challenge.

Steve Sax said...

Call is confirmed, De La Cruz is safe.

8-1 LA

spank said...

BOOOOOO

Steve Sax said...

RBI double by Tyler Stephenson scores Elly. So now it's 8-2 LA, two out. Snell showing cracks.

Speaking of which, what happened to Stephen Nelson? Suddenly Rick Monday is doing play by play.

Steve Sax said...

Ke'Bryan Hayes grounds out.

Snell's line: 7.0 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 9 Ks.

Steve Sax said...

Someone give Stephen Nelson some CPR!

Steve Sax said...

Teoscar Hernandez flies to left. Bench his ass!

Steve Sax said...

Stephen Nelson has been resurrected. He's back on the radio call.

Steve Sax said...

Rojas single to right. One out.

Steve Sax said...

Starting the NYT Wednesday crossword.

Steve Sax said...

Call PH single and then Marte throws to third...where no one was there! Rojas scores! Call takes third base!

9-2 LA

spank said...

10-2 LA

Steve Sax said...

Rortvedt single! 10-2 LA

Steve Sax said...

spank: LET'S GOOOOOOOOOOO

Steve Sax said...

Ohtani rung up, called strike 3.

10-2 LA, through 7

Steve Sax said...

Vesia in for Snell.

Steve Sax said...

Vesia gets Friedl after a long AB, but runner on second.

Steve Sax said...

8:51 Wed crossword time. Not great, but I was distracted.

So is Vesia, it seems. He's throwing a lot of pitches here.

Steve Sax said...

Vesia fucking walks Marte, who was 0-for-3 tonight. Come on, Alex!

Steve Sax said...

Vesia gone. 22 pitches, one out recorded. Not good, Alex.

spank said...

Vesia couldnt last one inning. not a good start for relievers

Steve Sax said...

Fucking Henriquez comes in and walks Andujar. Bases loaded.

GET A FUCKING OUT, BULLPEN

Steve Sax said...

Henriquez can't find the fucking strike zone! He's 3-1 on Sal fucking Stewart

Steve Sax said...

Henriquez walks in a run!

FUCK YOU GUYS, GET A GODDAMN GRIP

Steve Sax said...

Henriquez: 12 pitches, 4 strikes. Who the fuck cares if you're throwing 103 if you can't locate the fucking pitch

QuadSevens said...

@Sax Get a FUBO free trial. That’s how me and the Mrs are watching.

spank said...

holy shit the bullpen sucks

Steve Sax said...

2-0 count to Steer. Get Henriquez the fuck out of here

Steve Sax said...

Henriquez couldn't find the strike zone with a fucking map

spank said...

even the old ladies in the crowd are like fuck this bullshit

Steve Sax said...

Henriquez, you fucking suck. Get off this roster.

spank said...

I think we need more runs

Steve Sax said...

@Quad 8.42p: I'll try that. Thanks

Though if Henriquez is on, I'm not going to watch this shit

Steve Sax said...

Dreyer comes in and also walks in a run. It's 10-5.

This bullpen sucks. If Snell can't go 9, we're fucked.

spank said...

fucking ridiculous

karen said...

WTF is wrong with this bullpen????

Steve Sax said...

Emmet Sheehan warming up. That's the only move we've got.

Steve Sax said...

The ninth and tenth pitches from Dreyer aren't even close to the strike zone.

We are hopeless.

Steve Sax said...

Dreyer actually gets a K.

I'm not breathing easy yet. Here's Hayes. Two out, bases still juiced.

QuadSevens said...

Big strikeout for Dreyer!

Steve Sax said...

Dreyer gets out of this with a pop to Freeman.

What the fuck, guys.

Steve Sax said...

You know the Phillies are looking at this bullpen and just salivating.

Steve Sax said...

Betts and Freeman single, but of course Muncy does nothing. 0-for-4 tonight, Max.

Steve Sax said...

Treinen in for the ninth. He has a full count on McLain but gets the K for the first out.

Steve Sax said...

Friedl Ks. Two out.

Steve Sax said...

Lux singles with two out, to keep the Reds alive.

Steve Sax said...

WIN

spank said...

that's a wrap

Steve Sax said...

PGT up!